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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002836 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W (SILSKI) 
USDOC FOR BUREAU OF THE CENSUS: OFFICE OF AFRICA - NIGERIA DESK 
 
E.O. 12598: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI KDEM ECON PGOV EAID NI CENSUS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: CENSUS RESULTS NOT READY FOR PRIMETIME 
 
THIS IS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Nigerian census tabulations are nearly 
complete and the GON has said the figures will be unveiled in 
December.  International monitors reported that donor contributions 
have facilitated a census process that was fairly transparent, open 
and covered a high percentage of the population.  However, more than 
80 Nigerian NGOs claimed that the conduct of the census was 
disorganized and inefficient.  There remains speculation that the 
census will be subject to political machinations and will not be 
released until after the April 2007 elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Census Close to Ready? 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Recently, the National Population Council (NPC) held a 
"presidential forum for stakeholders on the status of the 2006 
census."  President Obasanjo, Vice President Abubakar, several 
ministers, high-level government officials and a sizeable media 
representation attended. 
 
¶3. (U) The NPC reported that 90 international monitors from 23 
countries served as independent sources of information on the census 
process and approximately 600 civil society organizations served as 
national monitors.  The major findings of the international 
monitors' report were: 
-- Census process was fairly transparent. 
-- There was high geographic area and population coverage, up to 
95-98% for several states. 
-- The NPC was open to media and civil society monitors working to 
increase census credibility. 
The report recommended raw data collected should be carefully 
cleaned and validated using international standards. 
 
Nigerian NGOs Cry Foul 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Civil Society Coalition on Census Monitoring (CSCCM), a 
collective effort of 80 NGOs to monitor the census compiled a report 
that concluded that the census was disorganized and inefficient. 
CSCCM representatives told us that its monitors documented a general 
nationwide problem with a lack of materials and or staff at many 
locations.  Moreover, many people were discouraged from waiting in 
long lines, while others could not find people to document them, and 
others, hoping to game the system, registered in multiple places. 
CSCCM underscored that many people were not counted, and overall, 
the 2006 census did not inspire a sufficient level of technical or 
political confidence to call it successful. 
 
Census Financial Contributions 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) The NPC reported that 37.8 billion Naira ($290 million) was 
allocated for the census with 18.5 billion Naira coming from the 
GON, 17 billion Naira from the EU and smaller amounts from other 
international donors.  The state governments contributed 
approximately 520 million Naira in cash and in kind, while local 
government councils provided fuel and other logistical support. 
 
Census Ballot Scanning and Editing 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) So far at the seven data processing centers - Lagos, Ibadan, 
Port Harcourt, Enugu, Kaduna, Yola, and Kano - 99% of the local 
government areas (LGAs) have had their ballots scanned, and 89% of 
the LGAs have had their ballots edited.  Editing for the last LGA 
was expected to be completed by October 20.  NPC officials noted 
that it will take at least 8-10 weeks for data extraction, 
tabulation and validation before the initial results will be 
unveiled. 
 
Post Enumeration Survey (PES) 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) In addition to the census, a PES was conducted June 18-26 
taking a five percent representative sample drawn from all 774 LGAs. 
 Initial findings from the EU and NPC monitoring teams suggest the 
PES was satisfactorily completed and should help validate the census 
results.  The NPC expects the PES results to be complete in early 
 
ABUJA 00002836  002 OF 002 
 
 
December. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Assuming the best case scenario, the NPC plans to release 
the census in late December.  This date is unrealistic based on past 
government practices during the holidays when GON offices typically 
close up during the holiday period or greatly reduce their 
workloads.  More likely mid-January would be a realistic time period 
for release of the census. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Another issue is that despite President Obasanjo's 
assurances that the census will be transparent and fair, there are 
serious reservations among some observers of whether the census will 
be unveiled before the April 2007 elections.  These observers 
speculate that it does not serve the President's interest to have 
census results unveiled before the elections.  If census results are 
released, the data is likely to be inconsistent with voter 
registration information and lead to outcries from communities that 
are undercounted. 
 
CAMPBELL