VZCZCXRO2394
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #5017/01 2440748
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 010748Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5963
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 4012
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 0143
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 7892
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 0457
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 1233
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 8996
RHMFISS/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/DISA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI PRIORITY 6109

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005017 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR JA
SUBJECT: ISAO IIJIMA ON SHINZO ABE'S LEADERSHIP, U.S.-JAPAN 
RELATIONS, RUSSIA, AND OKINAWA GOVERNOR RACE 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 4740 
     ¶B. TOKYO 4561 
 
Classified By: CDA JOSEPH R. DONOVAN.  REASONS 1.4 (B)(D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  Isao Iijima, Prime Minister Junichiro 
Koizumi's most trusted advisor, shared the following frank 
and perhaps self-serving observations with Acting DCM Meserve 
on August 23: 
 
-- Shinzo Abe, Japan's next prime minister, may lack the 
political skills to lead the ruling LDP in next year's 
elections;  he is surrounded by too many advisors and needs 
an Iijima-like gatekeeper to be a "bad guy" and harness the 
flow of information; 
 
-- plans for a U.S.-style National Security Council are 
unlikely to succeed, given the current state of Japan's 
intelligence community; 
 
-- Japan and the U.S. must become more like "separable" 
partners, allowing Japan to cultivate good relations with 
countries that may have an anti-U.S. bias; Prime Minister 
Koizumi will announce a private sector initiative along those 
lines after he leaves office; 
 
-- The Okinawa gubernatorial race outcome is uncertain; 
 
-- Koizumi made a conscious decision to handle Russia's 
firing on a Japanese fishing boat in waters off the disputed 
Northern Territories in as quiet and sensitive a manner as 
possible; and 
 
-- the U.S. should concentrate efforts at the vice governor 
level to ensure U.S. military aircraft can exercise their 
landing rights at the local airport in Aomori.  End summary. 
 
Abe a Weak Leader? 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) Over lunch on August 23 with acting DCM Meserve, 
Koizumi aide Isao Iijuma reviewed a wide range of topics. 
Most notably, Iijima told Meserve he was concerned about 
Abe's lack of a "bad guy", someone like Iijima, to unite LDP 
members together and exert control over the current complex 
situation.  Highlighting this point, Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Shinzo Abe's executive assistant, Yoshiyuki Inoue, called 
Iijima at this point during the lunch.  Over the phone, 
Iijima suggested they meet to talk about how to streamline 
the too many Diet supporters for Abe. 
 
U.S.-Style NSC 
-------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) After hanging up, Iijima showed his slight 
frustration with Abe, saying "Abe san mo hakkiri shinai," Abe 
is not clear and decisive.  He also commented negatively on 
Abe's idea to create a U.S.-style National Security Council 
inside the Prime Minister's Office (Kantei), saying it would 
never work well because there was no single person who could 
exercise control over the current intelligence community. 
Iijima thought Abe must be able to exercise his leadership 
more effectively. 
 
U.S.-Japan Relations Should Evolve 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Iijima hoped U.S.-Japan relations would take on a 
more "complementary" shape, allowing both countries to take 
advantage of their relative strengths in foreign affairs. 
Describing the U.S. and Japan as "separable" allies in the 
eyes of many nations, he believed Japan could use its 
goodwill in the developing world to build relations with 
countries that do not necessarily look favorably on the U.S. 
He pointed out that Prime Minister Koizumi had already 
embarked down this path with visits to countries where Japan 
 
TOKYO 00005017  002 OF 003 
 
 
might exercise greater influence to supplement weak ties with 
the U.S.  He did not know whether Abe would continue this 
approach, but said that Koizumi would announce, after 
stepping down from office, a related private sector 
initiative that would contribute to better diplomatic 
relations for both Japan and the U.S. 
 
Low-key Handling of Russian Shooting 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) Prime Minister Koizumi had deliberately chosen to 
adopt a low-key approach in response to the August 16 firing 
on a Japanese fishing vessel by a Russian patrol boat off 
Kunashiri Island in the disputed Northern Territories (ref 
C), Iijima told Acting DCM.  He claimed that he had worked 
directly with Russian Charge Mikhail Galuzin and others to 
defuse this politically charged matter. 
 
Okinawa Governor Race 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) The outcome of the Okinawa gubernatorial election in 
November was still uncertain, Iijima stated.  While the LDP 
and Komeito have decided to field an influential local 
business leader, Okinawa Electric Power Company Chairman 
Hirokazu Nakaima, the LDP is not totally united in its 
support, either nationally or locally.  He reserved harsh 
criticism for prospective candidate and former LDP Diet 
member Mikio Shimoji.  Shimoji is still considering whether 
to run, Iijima related, but has almost no chance of winning. 
(Note.  Iijima previously told Embassy Tokyo that he was 
strongly supporting Shimoji for governor.)  Iijima, obviously 
disenchanted with Shimoji, charged that by becoming governor, 
Shimoji was merely trying to rebuild a "new collusion and 
corruption system" just for himself in Okinawa.  Shimoji 
would fully support the U.S. force transformation 
initiatives, but would not be good for Okinawa, said Iijima. 
 
Aomori Airport:  Iijima Promises Help for U.S. Forces 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7.  (C) After A/DCM explained ongoing problems in getting 
landing permission at Aomori Airport for U.S. military 
aircraft and the importance of easy access for running the 
X-Band radar installation, Iijima offered to intervene. 
Noting that Hachinohe Mayor Makoto Kobayashi is his friend, 
Iijima offered to speak to Kobayashi to help ensure that U.S. 
military aircraft can exercise their rights to land at Aomori 
Airport.  In general, he observed, the best way to get this 
sort of permission at the prefectural level is to go through 
the vice governor, rather than the governor.  Vice governors 
are usually promising young bureaucrats from the Home Affairs 
Ministry who will return to their ministry after the 
prefectural assignment.  Knowing the importance of 
maintaining good relations with Diet members, they are much 
more likely to listen to these requests than the actual 
governors, who are more focused on local issues.  He noted 
that he himself had used the "vice governor channel" once to 
get permission for the Self Defense Forces to use a small 
airport in Hokkaido. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Iijima is the outgoing Prime Minister's most trusted 
advisor and political fixer.  They have been together for 
over 30 years.  Iijima's criticism of Abe is similar to what 
we have heard elsewhere; that Abe's support within the LDP is 
shallower and more nuanced than it appears, despite his 
runaway lead in the LDP presidential race (ref B).  Iijima 
has shepherded Koizumi through some rocky shoals over the 
past five years and helped bring him to the end of his term 
with close to 50 percent approval ratings.  With no "Iijima" 
of his own in sight, Abe may have a more difficult time 
controlling the LDP and keeping the factional fighting in 
check. 
 
TOKYO 00005017  003 OF 003 
 
 
DONOVAN