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DE RUEHTL #0845/01 2580835
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FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9021
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE 2432

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000845 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONAIN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: NO LONGER HOT BUT 
STILL POTATOES 
 
REF: TALLINN 00347 
 
Classified By: DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  These days, progress in Estonian- 
Russian relations is measured in inches.  Over the last 
several months, disagreements over sensitive and 
controversial issues such as the border treaty have not 
hindered cooperation on less hotly debated issues. 
However, Estonia's relationship with Russia remains 
highly vulnerable, particularly as Estonia enters a 
parliamentary election campaign early next year.  End 
Summary. 
 
We agree to disagree 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) For several months now, the GOE and the GOR have 
managed to keep their disagreement over the border treaty 
on the back-burner and de-link it from other important 
priorities (e.g., transport infrastructure, 
environmental, and law enforcement cooperation).  As MFA 
Third Political Department Director General Tiik told us, 
"It's still a potato, but it's no longer hot." 
Meanwhile, the MFA has continued its "baby steps" 
approach in confidence building with the Russians 
(reftel).  According to Tiik, the Estonians' slow and 
modest efforts and increased direct contacts among 
counterparts have helped the sides to deal with 
contentious issues before they become too "hot". 
 
¶3. (C) Although the GOR recently submitted a proposal to 
open new border talks, the GOE has made clear it has no 
desire to reopen the issue.  On September 6 Karin Jaani, 
Director General for the MFA's Second Political 
Department and former Ambassador to Russia, told us, "The 
proposal wasn't new, it just removed the preamble they 
found offensive.  With the Presidential elections taking 
place now and parliamentary elections early next year, it 
isn't the time to have these negotiations."  Jaani 
continued that while the timing is curious, there has not 
been any follow up pressure or further statements from 
Moscow to resume talks.  Vadim Vasiliev, Russian Embassy 
Political Officer, confided in us on September 5 that he 
believes the GOR proposal was intended to "test the 
water" and gauge the GOE's mood. 
 
The Media takes a breather 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to Andres Kasekamp, Director of the 
Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, in an August 24 
meeting, even the Estonian press has recently become 
slightly less sensational in its coverage of Russia. 
Kasekamp explained that "Russia being Russia, the 
(Estonian) press not only gives it a lot of coverage but 
also sensationalizes any tension or conflict."  In his 
opinion, Kasekamp felt that the "straight" and "dull" 
reporting of Russia's new border treaty proposal, 
Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet's visit to Moscow on 
June 30, and Russian Transport Minister Igor Levitin's 
July 24 visit to Tallinn signified a positive step 
forward in improving the atmospherics.  Even outgoing 
Russian Ambassador to Estonia, Konstantin Provalov, 
forecasted improved relations in an August 29 interview 
published by Molodyozh Estonii, a leading Russian- 
language daily in Estonia. 
 
Back to basics 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Where Estonian-Russian relations have improved 
most visibly is at the technical/working level between 
Estonian and Russian law enforcement agencies (e.g., 
border guards, customs, and police).  Martin Paas, Senior 
Customs Specialist, characterized his own cooperation and 
communication with Russian counterparts as "positive," 
despite recent delays at the border (para 7).  (Note:  in 
a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, Enriko Aav, Director 
General of the Tax and Customs Board, also highlighted 
his office's good cooperation with Russia on the working 
level, but noted that senior level cooperation has been 
less effective due to changes of senior personnel on the 
Russian side.  End note.)  Even in sensitive areas like 
trafficking in persons (TIP), there has been more 
cooperation and information sharing recently.  Kristiina 
Luht, Chief Specialist for the Ministry of Social 
Affairs, said that a roundtable discussion with Russian 
counterparts in St. Petersburg in June 2006, was the best 
cooperation she has experienced with Russian authorities 
to date. 
 
TALLINN 00000845  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
Flashpoints: present and future 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) While bilateral relations have marginally 
improved, GOR and GOE officials have spoken to us of two 
possible issues that could rekindle recently dormant 
tensions. 
 
Border Issues. 
 
¶7. (SBU) From mid-July until early-September, the 
Russian-Estonian border near Narva saw a dramatic 
increase in traffic delays due to changes in inspection 
procedures by Russian border guards and customs agents. 
The resulting backlog of trucks caused discontent among 
truck drivers and businesses dependent on quick and 
reliable movement of goods across the border.  There was 
significant press coverage of the problem with many GOE 
officials and politicians complaining publicly about the 
issue. 
 
¶8. (C) The Russian Embassy's Vasiliev explained to us on 
Sep 8 that this clampdown was the result of efforts to 
combat corruption at the border.  Vasiliev confided that 
Moscow disapproved of the "cozy relationship the customs 
and northwest border guard chiefs had with certain 
businesses."  The GOE officially complained to the GOR 
and demanded to know when traffic will be eased.  During 
a discussion with the MFA's Jaani, the Russian Embassy's 
Charge d'Affairs explicitly linked differences over the 
border treaty with the recent delays.  Jaani,however, 
downplayed this conversation to us on Sep 6, noting she 
believes that the Russian Embassy was caught off guard 
and had not received proper instruction from Moscow.  She 
also told us that in her opinion the Charge had most 
likely been speaking in a personal capacity.  As of 
September 12, both the MFA and the Customs office told us 
that the backlog on the border has diminished. 
 
Parliamentary Elections. 
 
¶9. (C) There is concern within the MFA that in the run up 
to next spring's parliamentary elections, nationalist 
parties (Res Publica and Pro Patria in particular) will 
try to inflame anti-Russia sentiment in order to 
galvanize their base.  September 22, the anniversary of 
the "liberation" of Tallinn by the Soviet Army, presents 
an early opportunity for nationalist groups to cause 
trouble.  When asked about what may happen on September 
7, Ott Lumi, Secretary General for Res Publica, said that 
officially he hoped that the day would pass without 
incident.  However, speaking off the record he told us 
that "an incident would be extremely good for Res 
Publica's campaign and they would make good use of the 
publicity."  Lumi said that Res Publica and Pro Patria's 
campaign will be on values, i.e.  breaking completely 
with Estonia's Communist and Russian past. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment.  Until bigger issues, like the border 
treaty, are resolved, progress in other areas of the 
Estonian-Russian relationship will always be tenuous. 
Nevertheless, the fact that the two sides are not 
allowing their big disagreements to prevent progress in 
other areas is a welcome, albeit modest, step forward. 
End Comment. 
GOLDSTEIN