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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2031 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CHEN PLAYS PRESIDENTIAL CARD AS PROTESTERS PREPARE 
         TO LAUNCH RALLIES 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  President Chen is going forward with his 
long-planned trip to visit diplomatic partners Palau and 
Nauru Sept 3-6 in an effort to bolster Taiwan's ties to its 
allies in the South Pacific.  In so doing, Chen aims to 
highlight his determination to forge on as President in the 
face of continuing calls for his resignation.  Protest 
demonstrations by "anti-Chen" groups, most notably the 
"Depose Chen" campaign led by former Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP)  Chairman Shih Ming-te, will begin Friday 
evening, Sept 1, and continue through the weekend and over 
the next four weeks.  While disappointment with Chen 
continues within the ruling pan-Green camp, we see no signs 
that he or his key supporters are going to buckle under the 
additional pressure from Shih's movement.  End Summary. 
 
Chen Plays Presidential Card 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) President Chen will depart on Sunday, Sept 3, on "Air 
Force One" for Palau to attend a Sept 4 summit meeting of the 
heads of state of Taiwan's six diplomatic partners in the 
South Pacific.  This trip was planned to shore up Taiwan's 
ties with its South Pacific allies.  Chen will then proceed 
to Nauru on Sept 5 before returning to Taipei via Guam the 
following day.  National Cheng-chih University Professor Yen 
Chen-shen told AIT that this first-ever summit with Pacific 
island allies is an effort to counter Beijing's push deeper 
into the region.  Of particular concern here has been Premier 
Wen Jiabao's attendance earlier this year at a forum of PRC 
allies in the region and his announcement of a major aid and 
economic investment package in May. 
 
¶3.  (C) Chen's decision to proceed with his long-scheduled 
visit highlights to domestic audiences his continuing 
fulfillment of presidential responsibilities despite the 
growth of a "Depose Chen"movement that will kick off 
demonstrations this weekend.  Staffers of ruling DPP 
Legislator Hung Chi-chang told AIT Aug 31 that Chen's visit 
is intended to reinforce his declaration that he will not 
step down.  Chen intends to serve out his full term and to 
highlight his continuing leadership, especially on national 
defense and foreign policy issues.  The President's strategy, 
the staffers explained, is to portray continuing 
self-confidence to both his supporters and his critics. 
 
¶4.  (C) The timing of the trip between the start of anti-Chen 
pep rallies Sept 1 and larger demonstrations planned for Sept 
9, though long planned, could also help deflate the "Depose 
Chen" movement.  Most Taiwan press headlines today, Sept 1, 
focused on President Chen's South Pacific trip and his Guam 
transit, relegating reports of tonight's anti-Chen 
demonstrations to the inside pages.  Presidential Office 
General Secretary Mark Chen told AIT that negotiations in 
early August between the Presidential Office and Shih 
Ming-te, former DPP chairman and leader of the "Depose Chen" 
movement, were not successful in reaching a compromise that 
would give Shih a way to back out without losing face. 
(Note:  Since launching his movement Shih has vowed that the 
"Depose Chen" demonstrations will continue until Chen steps 
down and has publicly stated "if you (Chen) do not fall, then 
I (Shih) will be finished." End Note) 
 
Shih Seeks to Maintain Protest Momentum 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Shih's "Depose Chen" campaign headquarters, for its 
part, has been struggling to maintain momentum after going 
over one week without any major rallies or events since its 
initial drive to collect NT$100 million in contributions 
ended August 23.  (Comment: In a bid to broaden the movement, 
the movement renamed itself the "Anti-Corruption" movement on 
Monday August 28, but the focus and endgame continues to be 
deposing Chen. End Comment) Soochow University Professor 
Emile Sheng, a long-time opposition pan-Blue contact who will 
serve as the movement's international press spokesman, told 
AIT on Aug 30 that the campaign decided to hold small-scale 
"trial" sit-ins each evening beginning Friday, Sept 1.  They 
 
TAIPEI 00003027  002 OF 003 
 
 
will continue until the main sit-in begins on Sept 9 in large 
part to avoid losing momentum and interest.  Sheng noted that 
supporters, mostly from the opposition pan-Blue camp, have 
been pressing for action and are impatient with the length of 
time it has taken campaign headquarters to organize 
activities. 
 
¶6.  (C) The local press is reporting that some contributors 
are now demanding their money back, especially after Shih 
criticized opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman and Taipei 
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou earlier this week for not issuing the 
movement a 24-hour sit-in permit.  Ma had tacitly endorsed 
the movement earlier in the month by giving NT$100 as a 
"private citizen." Deep-Blue People First Party (PFP) 
Legislator and James Soong confidant Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiau) 
told AIT on Aug 31 that he disagreed with the notion that 
Shih's movement was losing momentum.  Huang estimated that 
the first day would draw as many as 15,000 participants. 
 
¶7.  (C) Shih's movement, nevertheless, will to some extent be 
competing for attention with other anti-Chen and pro-Chen 
activities planned by various groups over the next two weeks. 
 While some pan-Green contacts tell us that their biggest 
concern is the potential for peaceful demonstrations to turn 
violent, others are confident that Taiwan's democratic 
institutions are strong enough withstand this extra-legal 
attempt to remove the president.  Optimists point to the calm 
and order evident on the streets of Taipei, as people go 
about their daily activities despite the media frenzy 
surrounding the "Depose Chen" movement. 
 
Protest Schedule 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The schedule of announced protests over the next 
three weeks is fluid, continually changing, and complex, with 
demonstrations overlapping or abutting each other on the 
broad plaza-like Ketagalan Boulevard in front of the 
Presidential Office Building.  As of Sept 1, Taipei police 
had issued the following permits for activities in and around 
Ketagalan Bvd: 
 
-- Sept 1:      "Democratic Night Market" on Ketagalan 
                Bvd beginning at 19:00; organized by 
                anti-Chen Democracy Action Alliance (DAA) 
                to kick off weekend of anti-Chen protests. 
 
-- Sept 1-7:    "Depose Chen" movement "trial" sit-in on 
                Ketagalan Bvd.  Each evening 18:00- 
                22:00, 230 protesters will hold practice 
                sit-ins in preparation for the 2,300- 
                person sit-in scheduled to start Sept 9 
                (each protester symbolizes 1,000 of 
                Taiwan's 2.3 million people). 
 
-- Sept 8:      Pro-DPP Republic of Taiwan Society 09:30- 
                16:00 demonstration on Ketagalan Bvd 
                calling for establishing the "Republic of 
                Taiwan."  On this day, the "Depose Chen" 
                movement will shift to adjacent Chiang 
                Kai-shek Memorial Park. 
 
-- Sept 9-10:   DAA anti-Chen rally on Ketagalan Bvd 
                will share a demonstration permit with 
                the "Depose Chen" sit-in, consisting of 
                2,300 people each evening 18:00-22:00, 
                rotating 1-hour time slots. 
 
-- Sept 11-29:  "Depose Chen" sit-in continues (no further 
                information), 09:00-22:00 daily. 
 
-- Sept 16-20:  "Democratic Forum" held by (pro-Chen) DPP 
                Taipei Councilor Yen Sheng-kwang, possibly 
                related to DPP twentieth anniversary; 
                to be held just east of Ketagalan Bvd. 
 
-- Sept 30-     DPP Taipei Councilor Liu Yao-jen-organized 
     Oct 1:     Activity on Ketagalan Bvd. 
 
 
TAIPEI 00003027  003 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) As he confronts this movement to depose him, 
President Chen continues to play to his deep-Green core 
supporters and to the mainstream public by carrying on with 
his normal Presidential duties.  Most pan-Green AIT contacts, 
while disappointed with Chen and the damage the ongoing 
allegations of corruption have caused to the ruling DPP, 
think Chen's strategy will allow him to ride out the 
political storm.  They predict the movement to subside once 
the Legislature starts its session on Sept 19.  For Shih and 
the "Depose Chen" movement, on the other hand, turnout for 
the trial sit-in and allied anti-Chen activities this weekend 
will be a key test of the depth of support for their cause. 
YOUNG