VZCZCXRO2262
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHVJ #2281/01 2701859
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271859Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4498
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR (DICARLO), D (SMITH), P (BAME), EUR/SCE (HOH, SAINZ, 
FOOKS), NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, STATE PLEASE PASS 
TO USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA CAMPAIGN 2006: NGOS CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED 
ISSUE-BASED DIALOGUE 
 
 
SARAJEVO 00002281  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) This is the third in a planned series of elections 
related telegrams. 
 
¶2. (U) SUMMARY: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina are generally active in the run-up to 
the October national elections.  In particular, a 
USAID-funded coalition of NGOs called Civic Organizing for 
Democracy (GROZD), has a twelve issue platform which has 
received broad public support through a massive signature 
campaign.  Despite their organizational success, only the 
Social Democratic Party has embraced the GROZD program with 
any enthusiasm.  Other parties have focused their campaign on 
nationalist themes.  Bosnians claim they are turned off by 
nationalist campaigning, but they also are disengaged and 
often do not understand Bosnia's political structure.  GROZD, 
a youth organization called Youth Information Agency (OIA), 
and a few others are trying to mobilize voters through voter 
education, get-out-the-vote campaigns and various initiatives 
to hold political parties accountable for their promises. 
Their efforts will most likly yield limited results on 
October 1, but they re attempting to lay the groundwork for 
a more poitically engaged civil society in Bosnia.  END 
SMMARY. 
 
 
NGOs DEMAND ISSUE FOCUSED CAMPAIGN 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) NGOs across Bosnia and Herzegovina have actively 
campaigned on behalf of their respective issues in advance of 
the October 1st national elections.  GROZD, an umbrella 
organization funded by USAID made up of several hundred NGOs, 
has launched a campaign to focus attention on issues 
important to voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  GROZD 
represents the first broad, citizen based attempt to change 
the political dialogue in post-war Bosnia.  Additionally, the 
youth umbrella organization, OIA, has launched a catchy voter 
information and get-out-the-vote campaign.  Both 
organizations, along with other NGOs are inserting a small 
amount of civic activism into the pre-election atmosphere, 
working to educate and mobilize voters in the short term, and 
to change the relationship between civil society and the 
government over the long term. 
 
¶4. (U) GROZD, which was founded four years ago as an election 
monitoring organization, canvassed Bosnia over recent months 
to form a citizen-based political platform.  GROZD visited 
around 100 cities, interacting with local populations by 
conducting surveys and holding open forums.  With community 
input, the organization composed a 12 point platform that 
incorporates bread and butter issues such as unemployment, 
poverty, pensions, and health care, and national political 
issues such as EU membership, foreign investment and 
corruption.  GROZD then took their platform on the road to 
build citizen support with the goal of securing 500,000 
signatures by September 30, 2006 (NOTE: As of September 24, 
GROZD had 460,000. END NOTE).  500,000 is a significant 
number; it represents more votes than any single political 
party or coalition has received in the past. 
 
¶5. (U) Simultaneously, GROZD marketed their platform to 
political parties.  Four of the major parties, Party for 
Democratic Action (SDA), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Party 
for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) and Party of Democratic 
Progress (PDP), have signed on to all or parts of the 
platform, as have many smaller parties.  SDP, however, is the 
only party that GROZD says pays any substantive attention to 
their issues.  Many political parties have been reluctant to 
endorse the GROZD platform because it identifies problems 
without recommending policy solutions.  Republika Srpska 
Prime Minister Milorad Dodik claimed that the platform did 
not support the interests of Bosnian Serbs, suggesting that 
GROZD add an item on maintaining the existence of the RS.  On 
September 30, GROZD will hold rallies in Bosnia's major 
cities -- Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Tuzla and Mostar -- hoping to 
use the pre-election embargo on campaigning by political 
parties to focus voters on their platform. 
 
¶6. (U) The youth movement, OIA, is focused on voter 
education, get-out-the-vote events, and lobbying politicians 
on youth issues.  Like GROZD, OIA began their election 
activism with a tour around Bosnia to discuss issues of 
importance to the 18-30 year old demographic group.  OIA 
representatives told us they were shocked at how little the 
youth knew about the Bosnian political system.  As a result, 
they produced a "shake the state" campaign that includes a 
 
SARAJEVO 00002281  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
mildly provocative pamphlet on the electoral system, and a 
voting game designed to quiz players on the Bosnian electoral 
system.  Additionally, OIA has developed a youth-targeted 
platform to address perceptions that Bosnian politics is not 
youth friendly and motivate young voters to go to the polls. 
Like GROZD, OIA will hold public events, including "radio 
after parties" in discos, cafes and bars on the Saturday 
night before elections, as well as television advertisements 
about the passive registration voter system. 
 
 
POLITICIANS AREN'T LISTENING 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) While the GROZD and OIA movements are engaging some 
Bosnian citizens, they are having only a modest impact on the 
national political dialogue.  Leading politicians have 
campaigned on the assumption that the majority of their 
support will come from Bosnians voting their fears. 
Representatives from Transparency International BiH (TI BiH) 
explained that people do not care about the economy when they 
are worried about returning to war.  Over the last ten years, 
appealing to a nationalist agenda has worked for most 
political parties and they have little incentive to change 
their approach.  The centralized nature of Bosnian political 
parties may also explain the lack of interest in issue-based 
campaigning.  Party structures are tight and without the 
explicit support of individual party leaders, issues such as 
those on the GROZD platform will likely not enter into the 
political dialogue anytime soon.  Local officials and 
political party candidates throughout Bosnia told us they 
support the GROZD platform, but doubt it will have much 
impact because their leadership does not actively support it. 
 Politicians have also expressed skepticism of the NGO 
community in general asserting that NGOs are motivated by 
financial rewards. 
 
 
APATHETIC BOSNIANS SEE LITTLE REASON TO VOTE 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) According to the Bosnian Election Commission, 55 
percent of eligible voters voted in the 2002 national 
elections.  Experts predict that this year's turnout will be 
similar.  According to many of our NGO interlocutors, the 
Bosnian electorate is generally apathetic and uninformed.  In 
Zenica, a major city in central Bosnia, we were told that 
only about 20 percent of city residents would be able to name 
the Prime Minister.  We hear repeatedly that voters have a 
broad distrust of politicians, seeing them as corrupt and 
unreliable.  One NGO, the Center for Humane Politics (CHP), 
released a study in early September claiming that ruling 
parties have fulfilled only 7 percent of their election 
promises since 2002.  While the accountability efforts of CHP 
received high profile media coverage, politicians have 
largely ignored the survey, and paradoxically some Bosnians 
cite it as an additional reason not to vote. 
 
 
NGOs LOOK TO 2008, 2010 
----------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) GROZD, OIA and other NGOs remain focused on the 
future.  Their goal, particularly in the case of GROZD, is to 
maintain their current momentum to affect change in the 2008 
local elections and the next national elections in 2010. 
Specifically, GROZD hopes to demonstrate a high level of 
public support for their platform through turnout at their 
September 30 rallies.  If they can mobilize a substantial 
amount of voters,  GROZD hopes that national politicians will 
both take the organization more seriously, and appreciate 
that voters respond to issue-based dialogue.  After the 
October elections, GROZD will focus on grassroots civic 
organization and building voter confidence. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) While much of the NGO story is a good one with 
active, engaged groups working to educate and motivate the 
Bosnian electorate, the near total lack of a meaningful 
response from the political establishment is unfortunate 
(though sadly typical).  The Bosnian electorate's apathy 
contributes to a cycle of reinforcing behavior with voters 
staying away from the polls or voting along strictly ethnic 
lines.  Political parties, who continue to win elections 
 
SARAJEVO 00002281  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
based on nationalist campaigning, have little incentive to 
change.  It is interesting that all three major Bosniak 
parties -- SDA, SDP and SBiH -- signed onto GROZD's platform 
while neither of the two major Croat or two major Serb 
parties did.  This suggests that at least Bosniak politicians 
may worry a little about whether substantive issues appeal to 
voters, enough that they want to be on the same page as their 
rival political parties.  Encouraging as SDP's embrace of the 
GROZD platform is, SDP voters are mainly educated urbanites 
from Sarajevo and Tuzla who would have voted for SDP with or 
without its support of GROZD. 
 
MCELHANEY