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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000792 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL LG
SUBJECT: WHAT'S AT STAKE IN LATVIA'S ELECTIONS? 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey.  Reason: 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  While Latvia's parliamentary elections 
October 7 are unlikely to bring about a major near term 
change in foreign policy,  the elections merit USG attention 
for two reasons.  First, they will give us indication of 
whether Latvia will continue to press forward on efforts to 
strengthen rule of law, or slow down, now that the country 
has gained membership in both the EU and NATO.  Second, the 
parliament elected in October will choose Latvia's next 
president when Vaira Vike-Freiberga's second term ends in 
¶2007.  She has been a brake on some of the worst excesses in 
Latvian politics and dominated Latvia's foreign policy, 
shaping it in a determinedly pro-U.S. manner.  We do not 
believe that either of these issues will be forefront in the 
mind of the largely apathetic electorate, thus leaving them 
in the hands of Latvia's political elite.  End summary. 
 
Outlook for Coalition Formation 
 
¶2. (C) Latvian voters will elect their 100 member 
legislature, the Saeima, on October 7.  Current polls and the 
conventional wisdom point to a parliament with most of the 
same parties participating as in the current one, although 
there are some major questions about individual parties' 
number of seats.  Key among these are the following: how will 
the presence of Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs, indicted on 
corruption charges, affect the tallies for the Greens and 
Farmers Union?  Will the conservative First Party and the 
ethnic-Russian oriented Harmony Center clear the five percent 
threshold?  Will nationalist Fatherland and Freedom be able 
to win a significant number of seats with many of its most 
popular leaders serving in the European parliament and unable 
to run in these elections?  Will center-right New Era win 
enough seats to ensure the other Latvian parties must work 
with it?  Or will they cmoe to regret their decision to walk 
out of the government earlier this year in protest of a 
corruption scandal?  Most observers agree that the ethnic 
Russian parties will once again win 25 - 30 seats, with the 
remaining seats divided among the centrist and center-right 
ethnic Latvian parties.  The chances of the Russian parties 
being brought into government is basically nil, so the 
question is simply one of math. 
 
¶3. (C) Post elections, the key question will likely be a 
tactical one - what arrangements among the parties will 
produce a government that can win a vote of confidence?  Most 
people we talk to think that the most likely coalition 
arrangement would be the same as the current minority 
government - People's Party, Greens and Farmers, and First 
Party -- with Fatherland and Freedom possibly joining to 
provide a majority if needed.  Flagging poll numbers for New 
Era suggest it is unlikely to have enough seats to hold the 
balance of power, as they did in the previous elections, when 
they garnered the largest number of seats.  We have seen that 
the other parties are happy to avoid having to work with New 
Era if possible, following the acrimonious period which led 
to New Era leaving the government and the creation of the 
current minority government. 
 
Rule of Law 
 
¶4. (C) If the new governing coalition contains the same basic 
components, then it is hard to envision immediate major 
changes in policy, although some key players may change.  In 
the short term (six to eight months), we believe that the 
government which emerges from the election will continue to 
support us in the Global War on Terror (including maintaining 
troops in Iraq), democracy promotion in Latvia's neighborhood 
(especially Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and a 
range of other foreign policy priorities. 
 
¶5. (C) The biggest open question is what attitude Latvia's 
politicians adopt toward the rule of law.  To join the EU and 
NATO, Latvia put a lot of structures and legislation in 
place, but they have not had much time to operate, and 
implementation and coordination remain weak.  Talking to 
journalists, political scientists, NGO's and even 
politicians, there is a real sense here that these elections 
are critical for the medium-term future of the rule of law in 
Latvia.  Have the values of openness, transparency and good 
governance really begun to take root in Latvia or were the 
measures pushed through in large measure under the spur of EU 
membership criteria?  As one journalist said, "The question 
in this is election is whether it is about which oligarch 
should get wealthier or which one should be sent to prison." 
The answer will tell us a lot about whether Latvia has really 
turned the corner on these issues. 
 
¶6. (C) A government dominated by Greens and Farmers, First 
Party, and certain elements in the People's Party could very 
possibly pursue amendments to the criminal code that would 
make investigations harder for law enforcement. 
 
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Additionally, the positions of Prosecutor-General Maizitis, 
anti-corruption bureau (KNAB) director Loskotovs, and other 
key officials who have been proponents of strengthening the 
rule of law could be in jeopardy.  In the most extreme -and 
unlikely - scenario we hear there could be an attempt to pack 
the Constitutional Court to ensure that any attempt to 
challenge any bad legislation passed by the new Saeima would 
fail.  In the days and weeks following the elections, we will 
need to closely watch for signs of initiatives in the Saeima 
to weaken transparency and strengthen the hand of the 
oligarchs. 
 
The Next Latvian President 
 
¶7. (C) The parliament selected in October will choose the 
next President of Latvia when Vaira Vike-Freiberga's term 
expires next July (or sooner if she wins the race for UN 
Secretary General).  Vike-Freiberga's force of personality 
 
SIPDIS 
has made the presidency far more important that its 
constitutionally-defined role.  She has stood up to the 
parties to demand more accountability and reductions in 
corruption, she has vetoed laws that she felt were designed 
only to score cheap political points, but most importantly 
for us, she has been the primary architect and spokesperson 
for Latvian foreign policy for much of her eight years in 
office.  She has spoken in favor of US policy and values on 
numerous occasions and has helped ensure Latvia's continued 
participation in coalition operations and support in the 
Global War on Terror.  She has encouraged an insular 
population to look outward and take an interest in the 
struggles for democracy and freedom around the world. 
 
¶8. (C) While politicians would never criticize the very 
popular president publicly -- it would be political suicide 
-- they privately grumble that she is too independent and has 
expanded the role of her office far more than was ever 
intended.  They hope to find someone that is more "one of 
them" and who will be, frankly, more controllable.  For 
example, Vike-Freiberga has made it crystal clear that she 
will never appoint Aivars Lembergs to the post of Prime 
Minister, but we cannot exclude the possibility of a future 
president doing that.  As noted above, Latvia's monied 
interests, including Lembergs, want a change in the criminal 
code that would allow suspects access to evidence against 
them even while the investigation is ongoing, potentially 
allowing suspects to see what the police haven't yet found 
and take steps to destroy or hide information.  We doubt 
Vike-Freiberga would ever sign such a law and she would 
likely use the bully pulpit to shame the parliament from 
overturning that.  We cannot predict what another president 
would do.  Additionally, Vike-Freiberga has articulated a 
vision of Latvia's foreign policy that is based on values and 
is thus pro-US, pro-NATO and pro-EU.  Given her stature and 
personality, her governments have had to fall in line behind 
her on this.  Vike-Frieberga is quietly supporting Zaneta 
Ozolina, who head's the President's strategic analysis 
commision, to succeed her because her values and principles 
are in line with the current President's.  However, since the 
election will be conducted only by members of the Saeima, 
nothing is certain or predictable about the outcome.  A 
future president could have a less dominant role in foreign 
policy and we could see shifts in policy, very possibly to be 
more EU-oriented, but also perhaps to be "cozier" with 
Latvian business interests, many of whom have ties to Russia, 
Belarus and other countries in the region. 
 
The Voters 
 
¶9. (C) The key variable in all of this, of course, is the 
Latvian voter.  The general mood in advance of the elections 
is one of apathy.  Latvians seem to have very low 
expectations of their politicians and a growing economy 
dampens malcontent.  Polls here show trust in and respect for 
political parties and parliament below twenty percent.  We do 
not see strengthening the rule of rule or continuing the 
legacy of Vike-Freiberga as major motivators for most voters. 
 Revelations earlier in the year that then Minister for 
Transport Ainars Slesers arranged a vote buying scam to sway 
a municipal election (and presumably free up prime real 
estate for development by him and/or his supporters) was met 
with a yawn.  Allegations from New Era ministers that senior 
officials in the economic and justice ministry were 
mishandling EU structural funds and prison construction 
contracts respectively were used by other parties to make the 
point that New Era can't work with others; and the public 
seems to agree that New Era should have stayed in government 
and pursued its agenda from within the government.  As a 
result, voter turnout is likely to drop to between sixty and 
sixty-five percent (it was just over seventy percent in 
2002).  Most people will make their choice not on the basis 
of any party platforms, but on the basis of personality and, 
in many cases, ethnic identity.  Recent polls show that, less 
than three weeks before elections, roughly twenty percent of 
 
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the electorate was undecided about their vote.  Fifteen years 
after the restoration of independence and two years after 
joining the EU and NATO, the average Latvian voter feels that 
the big goals have been achieved and is more interested in 
enjoying the fruits of the earlier efforts rather than 
striving to see what else might be achieved. 
BAILEY