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78256
2006-09-13 17:13:00
06MEXICO5210
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO4987
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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: PROTEST CAMPS TO BE LIFTED; NEW PHASE FOR CIVIL 
DISOBEDIENCE MOVEMENT  
REF: MEXICO 4987 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY, REASONS 
: 1.4(B/D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Developments unfolding this week, and 
conversations with PRD and GDF (city government) insiders, 
provide ample indication that backers of defeated PRD 
Presidential candidate Andres Lopez Obrador will dismantle 
their six week old occupation of Mexico City's central square 
Zocalo and main thoroughfare, allowing the annual 
independence day parade by the military to proceed as usual 
and reducing the short term potential for violence. While 
both AMLO and President Fox continue to insist they will each 
offer an Independence Day "grito" in the Zocalo on the 
evening of September 15, the GDF is working behind the scenes 
to resolve the impasse. PRD contacts told us that the 
encampments are unlikely to be reinstated, but noted that 
their Party and AMLO's grass roots supporters are determined 
to take their civil disobedience campaign to a new phase, 
which will be announced at the National Democratic Convention 
(NDC) on September 16.  End summary. 
 
A Cry in the Night...or Two? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) A day after announcing his intention to dismantle the 
occupation of Paseo de la Reforma and Zocalo prior to the 
parade on September 16, AMLO reaffirmed his desire to give 
his own "grito" (annual speech commemorating the launch of 
Mexico's independence movement) to supporters in the Zocalo, 
the evening before.  AMLO is clearly seeking another 
opportunity to rattle Fox by upstaging the president's 
traditional address to the nation.  GDF Secretary of 
Government Ricardo Ruiz Suarez told poloffs that city 
government is working to find a face-saving solution, and 
that both Fox and AMLO would welcome one despite their 
hard-line public posturing. However, Ruiz noted that the 
president may not be willing to cede his place to AMLO after 
being prevented from delivering his annual report to Congress 
on September 1 (reftel).  On September 12, the presidential 
spokesman reaffirmed Fox's desire to speak there, and 
essentially told AMLO to "bring it on" by noting that any 
citizen has the right to express himself in Mexico's main 
square and saying he saw no conflict. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Unless the competing events are staged carefully, 
say local press sources, there will be an unruly "grito duel" 
between Fox and AMLO, with the latter's improvised stands at 
least partially blocking the view of the balcony from which 
Fox will speak and crowds of opposition supporters shouting 
insults while the president speaks. PRD Deputy Juan Jose 
Garcia Ochoa told poloff he believes a compromise in which 
Fox and AMLO deliver their gritos at different times in the 
Zocalo is possible. Deputy Cuauhtemoc Sandoval was less 
optimistic.  However, while concerns remain that the grito 
will be a noisy and embarrassing occasion for President Fox, 
most here are confident that the annual military parade on 
September 16 -- by far the greater concern last week -- will 
proceed uneventfully. Moreover, most here believe that the 
complicated logistics of dismantling the tent camps, staging 
the parade and setting up for the subsequent NDC can be 
managed. 
 
A New Phase of the Civil Resistance Campaign? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) According to both Garcia Ochoa and Sandoval, there is 
little chance that the unpopular occupation of Reforma would 
be reinstalled after the military parade, and the PRD is 
seeking to move on to a new phase of the civil disobedience 
campaign, ushered in by the NDC on September 16. Ruiz said he 
too doubted the protesters would seek to reoccupy Reforma 
after the parade.  Key AMLO ally Manuel Camacho Solis echoed 
these thoughts in a September 11 radio interview, saying it 
"wouldn't be convenient to reinstall the camps," and that 
"all of our energy will be put into the NDC."  As Garcia 
Ochoa explained, the NDC will identify a greater role for PRD 
elected officials (i.e. legislators and governors) in the 
movement, "to put a limit on what Calderon's Administration 
can do." He said the encampments were about seeking a 
recount, whereas the NDC will be about seeking institutional 
reform. A leader of PRD party ally, Convergencia Democratica, 
echoed these sentiments saying the Mexican left will do 
everything it can, within Mexico's institutions and through 
 
MEXICO 00005210  002 OF 002 
 
 
the NDC, to hold Calderon's feet to the fire before the 
December 1 inauguration and test his willingness to undertake 
fundamental reforms.  In recent days, AMLO has spoken of a 
new "Magna Carta" for Mexico, and of inaugurating a "Mirror 
Cabinet" to advance his reform agenda.  NDC delegates will be 
asked to vote on whether AMLO should be declared the 
"legitimate president" of Mexico, the head of a resistance 
government, or the leader/coordinator of a peaceful 
resistance movement.  According to Garcia Ochoa, there are 
already some 500,000 delegates registered for the September 
16 event. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  The PRD is clearly seeking a graceful end 
to the unpopular occupation of Reforma.  A reoccupation after 
the parade is unlikely, even if it cannot be ruled out 
entirely. Whether the party and its allies use other forms of 
disruptive civil disobedience to advance their agenda remains 
to be seen.  AMLO repeatedly has shown an impressive ability 
to turn out the masses.  The turnout at the September 16 NDC 
may provide our first clue as to how much energy remains in 
this movement. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA