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77011
2006-09-01 18:47:00
06MEXICO4958
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO4707
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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 004958 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: A DAY AT THE REVOLUTION 
 REF: MEXICO 4707 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY, 
REASONS: 1.4(B/D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  With all eyes now focused on the Mexican 
Congress and the Revolutionary Democratic Party's (PRD) 
long-threatened effort to deny President Fox the opportunity 
to deliver his final annual report there, poloff spent much 
of August 31 with a range of PRD contacts to gain further 
insight into their plans for the event.  The leadership of 
the PRD congressional delegation remains committed to Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) plan to humiliate the President 
within the halls of Congress.  Meanwhile, a larger group of 
PRD supporters plans to converge on the Congress from around 
the city, to provide a supportive audience outside.  At least 
one contact reports that AMLO continues to see himself as the 
legitimate president-elect, willing to provoke a crisis of 
governability in order to force Felipe Calderon to relinquish 
the presidency.  While in the short term, the PRD's 
increasingly radical tactics provide unusually dramatic 
political theater, we continue to believe that they 
ultimately will lead to a further weakening of the party's 
unity, prestige and influence.  End Summary. 
 
PRD,s Hierarchy Rallies the Troops 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) With President Fox's annual report to Congress set 
for September 1, high-level PRD officials have spent recent 
days debating how they should respond, with the consensus 
apparently forming that the PRD congressional faction should 
do everything possible to deny Fox the opportunity to deliver 
his final annual report.  On August 31, poloff accompanied 
Mary Carmen Soria Narvaez, assistant to AMLO's foreign policy 
advisor, Dr. Jose Maria Perez Gay, to a meeting of the PRD,s 
Central Executive Committee, at which PRD tactics were 
vigorously debated, including by the party's recently elected 
Senate and Chamber of Deputy coordinators. 
 
¶3.  (C) In well-received remarks, Carlos Navarette, the 
incoming PRD Senate coordinator, reiterated the party line 
that the elections were fraudulent, reflecting the 
determination of Fox and his allies to put Felipe Calderon in 
office.  He said that while some in the PRD think that the 
"struggle" is just about gaining the presidency, it was 
actually about achieving greater institutional and social 
reform, which would be discussed at AMLO's September 16 
National Democratic Convention (NDC).  He insisted that 
current GOM institutions no longer function and that "Mexico 
needs a struggle, a revolt, that transforms these 
institutions."  He told the assembled crowd that PRD actions 
during President Fox's address would demonstrate the depth of 
Mexico's political crisis, and insisted that Fox must not 
succeed in delivering his speech.  He urged PRDistas to 
support AMLO and the congressional protest, declaring "we 
cannot allow the movement to die...we are obligated to 
(AMLO)." 
 
¶4.  (C) Javier Gonzalez Garza, the recently-elected PRD 
coordinator in the lower house, criticized the PRI, the Green 
(PVEM) and New Alliance parties for having struck a deal with 
the PAN in electing congressional leadership, insisting that 
"parties that have negotiated with the PAN have lost their 
legitimacy."  He said the PRD needed to seek support from 
other parties such as Convergencia and the Workers Party 
(PT), whose support would leave the PRD within two votes of 
blocking the 2/3 majority the PAN would need to amend the 
constitution.  Likewise, he urged the PT and Convergencia to 
support the PRD gubernatorial candidate in Tabasco, much as 
the PAN and PRI had backed a single candidate in Chiapas in 
an unsuccessful effort to keep the PRD candidate from office 
(reftel). 
 
PRD Moderate Critical of Party's Radical Turn 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  After Gonzalez Garza's speech, Poloff met with 
well-connected PRD member and advisor to the Mexico City 
municipal government (GDF) Guillermo Flores.  Flores was 
critical of AMLO and what his movement was doing to the 
party, saying that many in the party did not understand or 
agree with AMLO, but that they continued to follow him 
because "they have no exit...they have no other leader to 
guide them in the right direction."  According to Flores, 
AMLO is convinced he is the legitimate President-elect and 
 
MEXICO 00004958  002 OF 003 
 
 
his plan is to form an alternative government at the 
September 16 NDC.  He sees AMLO as using the goal of 
"institutional reform" as a guise to achieve his real 
objective of becoming President.  To do this, his strategy is 
to make the country ungovernable, both through strikes and 
strenuous PRD opposition in Congress, until Calderon 
renounces his position.  Yet Flores doubts AMLO's efforts 
will last long, noting that Mexico enjoys macroeconomic 
stability and that movements such as AMLO's only propser in 
countries where there is uncertainty and instability. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Flores lamented that while AMLO had greatly 
strengthened the party in recent years, his current "antics" 
were undoing all of the contributions he had made.  He noted, 
for example, that by supporting AMLO, the PRD had "driven the 
PRI into the PAN's arms."  Among other things, this had 
resulted in a PAN-PRI deal to divide key congressional 
leadership positions among themselves, denying the PRD the 
influence over the congressional agenda normally inuring to 
the second place party. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Flores said that with respect to the protest inside 
the Chamber, there are several plans under consideration. 
One plan is to have the PRD Deputies/Senators enter the 
Chamber first and barricade the door, not allowing Fox -- or 
perhaps even other congressional delegations -- to enter. 
Alternatively, they will allow Fox to enter, but shout 
insults and protests throughout the speech.  Press reporting 
suggests that the final tactical decision would be made by 
AMLO himself just hours before the speech. 
 
Protest Includes a Cast of Thousands 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to press reports and embassy contacts in 
the Mexican security services, Mexico City Mayor Alejandro 
Encinas expects five or six groups of protesters marching 
from various directions of the city toward the Zocalo, Mexico 
City's central historic square, at noon today.  Groups 
expected to participate include members of several major 
labor unions, the Organizations for National Dialogue (a mix 
of moderate left-wing groups), and a small number from the 
more radical Popular People's Party of Oaxaca (APPO). 
Leaders of these organizations expect roughly 30,000 
participants, who will then link up with an estimated 10,000 
demonstrators waiting in the Zocalo.  At 4pm, march 
organizers will make a decision about how to proceed to the 
Congress, with speculation that AMLO himself may lead them. 
It appears that one goal of the protesters is to prevent 
President Fox, non-PRD legislators, and other invitees 
(including members of the diplomatic corps) from reaching the 
Congress.  Law enforcement authorities have already deployed 
thousands of officers around the Congress as well as in the 
city center, to maintain order. 
 
Encampments Will Come Down Soon 
------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Looking beyond today's political drama, Sandoval, 
Soria, and Flores each predicted in separate discussions that 
they expect that the encampments that currently block Paseo 
de la Reforma and the city's central square would soon come 
down, although they differed as to the precise timing.  Soria 
speculated they would be removed in about one week, whereas 
Sandoval expected them to be removed following the September 
16 NDC, although neither seemed privy to a formal decision to 
disband them.  Soria observed that the encampments were being 
financed in part by the party -- which she said was 
well-funded -- and in part by GDF officials, who were 
contributing a portion of their pay checks.  (Note: The press 
recently reported that incoming members of the PRD 
congressional delegation also had agreed to contribute a 
portion of their salaries to the protest movement.  End 
note.) 
 
PRD "Moral Leader" Gone AWOL 
---------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) On an unrelated issue, Soria told poloff that PRD 
founder, presidential candidate, and "moral leader" 
Cuauhtemoc Cardenas is no longer in line with PRD thinking, 
describing him as "the face of historical fraud" for his 
unwillingness to maintain a long-term protest movement in the 
face of the apparently fraudulent 1988 presidential election. 
 She described him as "collaborating" with those 
international contacts that supported Felipe Calderon during 
 
MEXICO 00004958  003 OF 003 
 
 
the election. 
 
Comment: High Drama in the Congress 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (C) With the PRD's final plan of action for President 
Fox's annual report to be determined only this afternoon and 
by AMLO himself, today's congressional session represents 
political theater of the very highest order.  Yet from the 
perspective of the PRD's political future, we cannot help 
believe that the performance will be more of a tragedy than a 
comedy.  An opinion poll published in today's Reforma 
indicates that 68% of Mexicans approve of Fox's performance 
as President, reflecting his broad and fairly resilient 
personal popularity, even in the face of numerous political 
setbacks.  Moreover, it is our impression that even many 
Mexicans who do not consider themselves ideological soulmates 
of the President strongly respect the prestige of the office 
and are offended by any affront to its dignity.  While AMLO 
may feel driven to use today's event to carry out a personal 
vendetta against the President -- and while he continues to 
command the loyalty of many in his party in this effort -- it 
is difficult to see how this strategy can result in anything 
but the party's further loss of prestige. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
BASSETT