VZCZCXRO0443
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1303/01 2691113
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261113Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3219
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001303 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambian Election Polls: Mwanawasa's Lead Slims, Opposition 
Candidates Gain 
 
REFS: A) Lusaka 1269; B) Lusaka 1264; C) Lusaka 1183 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and introduction: In the final days before national 
elections, a third Pangolin Consulting poll gives  ruling Movement 
for Multiparty Democracy President Levy Mwanawasa the lead, with 43 
percent, against 24 percent for Patriotic Front candidate Michael 
Sata and 23 percent for United Democratic Alliance candidate 
Hakainde Hichilema.  Compared to the second Pangolin poll (Ref B), 
Mwanawasa has lost some support in almost every province, and his 
overall level of support dropped as well, by 8 percentage points. 
Sata's standing rose by 5 percentage points overall, and he gained 
the most in Northern, Luapula and Central provinces.  Hichilema's 
overall rating rose by 7 points, and he enjoyed large increases in 
Western, North Western and Southern provinces.  The Patriotic Front 
has reacted to the gains made by Hichilema, and already appears to 
be preparing for a formal protest of the election results in case 
its candidate loses.  Meanwhile, a second poll by a little-known 
group with alleged links to the University of Zambia (Ref B) put 
Sata way ahead with 59 percent, against 23 percent for Mwanawasa and 
17 percent for Hichilema.  Polling is a new phenomenon in Zambia and 
it is hard to be certain that any of the cited polls are objective 
and accurate.  End summary and introduction. 
 
Nationwide Results Still Favor Mwanawasa 
 
¶2. (SBU) University of Zambia Political Science Professor Neo 
Simutanyi announced on September 25 results of a third and final 
opinion poll, undertaken between September 15 and 19, 2006, in all 
provinces of Zambia, with 3,000 respondents, using the same survey 
instrument as in previous polls.  The first question asked 
respondents if they were satisfied with the government's performance 
at the national level; 51 percent said yes (compared to 58 percent 
in the second poll) and 45 percent said no (compared to 38 percent 
in the second poll); 4 percent did not offer an opinion (same level 
as in the second poll).  The lower level of satisfaction may reflect 
the effectiveness of opposition party campaigns that have attacked 
the MMD for failing to deliver sufficient housing, health services, 
and civil servant benefits. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Simutanyi told P/E Officers on September 20 that Sata would 
not be able to beat Mwanawasa because Sata lacks sufficient support 
in four provinces: Western, North Western, Eastern, and Southern. 
He also noted that gains made by UDA candidate Hichilema were coming 
mainly at Sata's expense.  (Note: This contention, however, is not 
supported by the polling numbers, which show Hichilema's gains 
coming mainly at Mwanawasa's expense, or from previously undecided 
voters.  End note.)  Simutanyi and other political commentators 
acknowledged that Sata had generated a demand for change among 
voters.  However, they observed that some voters viewed Hichilema as 
better able to provide change.  This perceived threat to Sata from 
Hichilema was supported by the appearance of pro-Patriotic Front 
campaign ads during the week of September 18 that proclaimed, 
"WARNING! ...if you want to guarantee change and a popularly elected 
president, be warned that a vote against Michael Sata is a vote for 
Mwanawasa."  The commentators noted that Hichilema was viewed 
favorably and was considered to be a strong prospect for the 2011 
presidential race, but that he was too new and even "too clean" to 
be taken seriously by most voters in the 2006 election. 
 
Provincial Breakdowns 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite a still-comfortable margin of 43 percent for 
Mwanawasa to 24 percent for Sata, the final Pangolin poll report 
notes that the presidential race will be close.  It predicts that 
Sata will win a majority of votes in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula 
provinces, and Hichilema will win a strong majority in Southern 
Province and will draw from undecided voters to win in Eastern 
Province as well.  Mwanawasa is expected to win in Western, North 
Western, Northern and Central provinces--although Sata has made 
strides in both Northern and Central provinces between August and 
September polling, and seems to have growing support in Northern 
Province (see para 8).  The results by province for each of the 
three leading candidates are listed below, together with the results 
from the previous poll conducted in August (Ref B), in parentheses, 
to show trends and changes.  All values represent percentages. 
 
Central 
Mwanawasa: 51 (64); Sata: 26 (19); Hichilema: 13 (7) 
 
Copperbelt 
Mwanawasa: 38 (41); Sata: 36 (31); Hichilema: 16 (15) 
 
Eastern 
Mwanawasa: 41 (44); Sata: 16 (10); Hichilema: 29 (19) 
 
Luapula 
Mwanawasa: 41 (40); Sata: 38 (30); Hichilema: 3 (1) 
 
Lusaka 
Mwanawasa: 37 (36); Sata: 35 (32); Hichilema 13 (11) 
 
LUSAKA 00001303  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
Northern 
Mwanawasa: 59 (66); Sata 32 (18); Hichilema 2 (5) 
 
North Western 
Mwanawasa: 56 (56); Sata 1 (1); Hichilema 31 (24) 
 
Southern 
Mwanawasa: 28 (36); Sata 3 (4); Hichilema 63 (45) 
 
Western 
Mwanawasa 61 (81); Sata 7 (4); Hichilema 19 (2) 
 
OVERALL 
Mwanawasa 43 (51); Sata 24 (19); Hichilema 23 (16) 
 
Protest from PF Already Anticipated 
 
¶5. (SBU) Several political observers and civil society 
representatives told P/E officers on September 20 that they expected 
the Patriotic Front to protest election results if Sata is defeated. 
 The Patriotic Front appears to be laying the foundations for a 
formal protest: its director of research sent a letter to Electoral 
Commission of Zambia (ECZ) Chairperson Justice Irene Mambilima 
raising objections to "Loopholes in the 2006 Electoral Process" and 
indicating that unless the loopholes "...are sealed forthwith, the 
Patriotic Front would not recognize a fraudulent electoral outcome." 
 The letter, dated September 21, 2006, was copied to all diplomatic 
missions, political parties, election observer delegations, the 
media, and key civil society groups.  It questions the use of the 
electronic results reporting system, claiming that the system was 
supplied by a Chinese firm, and that "it is an open secret" that all 
Chinese favor the MMD government.  The letter raises other concerns 
about alleged "suspicious activities" that accompanied preparations 
for the 2006 elections, including the printing of voter registers, 
the collection of voter cards from members of the Zambian military 
serving in peacekeeping operations in Darfur and from the Zambian 
police, and alleged "missing" ballots.  (Note: Based on regular 
donor representative discussions with the ECZ, post believes that 
most of the concerns raised by the PF lack serious merit. End 
note.) 
 
Civil Society Concerns Linger 
 
¶6. (SBU) Civil society organizations (CSOs) have echoed several 
concerns raised in a recent meeting that donor missions had with the 
ECZ Chairperson (Ref A).   Representatives of leading CSOs told P/E 
officers on September 20 that they are concerned about the ECZ's 
inability to control the abuse of power by traditional leaders--some 
of whom have beaten and threatened to expel subjects who do not 
follow their election dictates--and the uneven access to electronic 
media.  While they acknowledged that the MMD government was behaving 
better than they might have expected, they pointed out that the 
ruling party still abused its control of resources by announcing 
strategically-timed projects or provision of benefits, to gain 
influence with voters.  One representative also complained that the 
ECZ's requirement for full investigation of any complaint of 
Electoral Code of Conduct violations meant that follow up was 
extremely slow, and ultimately was not meaningful. 
 
Second Poll from Unknown Group Gives Sata Huge Lead 
 
¶7. (SBU) September 25 papers carried reports that the "Network of 
Social Science Researchers" released results of a second opinion 
poll that indicated 59 percent of voters favored PF candidate 
Michael Sata (a previous poll by the same group also gave Sata a 
strong lead, see Ref A).  MMD President Levy Mwanawasa received 
support from only 23 percent of respondents, and UDA candidate 
Hakainde Hichilema came in third, with 17 percent.  The coordinator 
of the network, Katongo Mulenga, claimed that the survey was 
conducted in every province of Zambia and the sample size was 4,000 
respondents.  However, no further details of the results or 
breakdowns by province are available.  Mulenga is reportedly a 
researcher at the University of Zambia, but several Embassy contacts 
at the University's political science department tell us they have 
no knowledge of any individual with this name, nor are they familiar 
with the cited network of social science researchers.  Post 
continues to have doubts about the credibility of this poll. 
 
Anecdotal Feedback: Strong Support for Sata 
 
¶8. (SBU) The head of one civil society organization that plans to 
field over 2,000 local election monitors told P/E Officers that 
monitors who were already tracking the candidates' appearances at 
campaign rallies reported strong enthusiasm in Kasama and elsewhere 
in the Northern Province for Michael Sata.  Microbus drivers who 
support the PF candidate were offering free rides to Sata rallies 
and many voters were walking long distances to hear Sata speak.  By 
contrast, the MMD has had to work hard and provide transport to 
entice voters to attend its rallies, he reported.  Also, Sata has 
 
LUSAKA 00001303  003 OF 003 
 
 
been happily mingling with the crowds and taking questions from 
voters, in marked contrast to President Mwanawasa, who is flown or 
driven to a site with great fanfare, delivers his remarks, and then 
makes a quick exit.  The CSO representative shared an anecdote about 
a blind man who tried to query Mwanawasa about his plans to help the 
disabled--before he could even finish his question, security guards 
whisked him away and detained him, like a criminal.  This approach 
has not helped the President's cause, the representative noted.  He 
believed that Sata was gaining significant grassroots support all 
around Northern Province as a result of his accessible style and 
approach. 
 
Interesting Demographic Notes from Pangolin Poll 
 
¶9. (SBU) Prof. Simutanyi told us that Pangolin poll-takers collected 
much more demographic information from poll respondents than was 
divulged in the polling results report.  For example, he noted that 
the typical MMD supporter tended to have less education than a 
typical Patriotic Front supporter.  A greater number of MMD 
supporters had only a primary level education, while more PF 
supporters had completed secondary level studies, Simutanyi said. 
Although at first glance this seems counterintuitive, it actually 
reflects the MMD strategy of focusing on rural voters.  Also, Sata 
reportedly receives a great deal of support in urban areas not only 
from unemployed (and this does not equate with uneducated) young 
people, but also from skilled labor, who resent poor working 
conditions, and from civil servants, who are frustrated with 
long-delayed payments of benefits by the MMD government. 
 
Pangolin Boss--Not Unbiased? 
 
¶10. (SBU) Professor Simutanyi is a well-regarded political science 
professor from the University of Zambia who owns and runs Pangolin 
Consulting and writes a regular column in the independent daily 
newspaper, The Post.  His column of September 25, 2006 was entitled, 
"Why I Won't Vote for Sata" and raised "grave misgivings" about 
Sata's suitability for the office of president.  Regardless of the 
merit or truth in Simutanyi's statements about Sata, his public 
declaration raises concerns about the objectivity of the Pangolin 
polls.  Simutanyi did not carry out the polling himself; his UNZA 
colleague, Njekwa Mate, was responsible for managing and overseeing 
the poll.  Still, Simutanyi's public position creates an impression 
of bias, at a minimum. 
 
Comment 
 
¶11. (SBU) Opinion polling is a new phenomenon in Zambia. Despite 
what are probably good intentions, it is difficult to conclude that 
polls are being conducted objectively and accurately.  As noted 
above, even respected academics are not without bias.  The candidate 
who poses the most serious threat to President Mwanawasa, Michael 
Sata, has spent most of his time campaigning in Lusaka, Central, 
Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces, and we expect that he 
will have a strong showing in these areas.  Both Sata and Hichilema 
appear to have gained support during September, and this trend may 
continue right up until the election, at Mwanawasa's expense.  We 
tend to agree with Prof. Simutanyi's view that it may be hard for 
Sata to prevail without stronger support in other provinces.  But 
the race will be close.  What impresses us is that although 
Mwanawasa's political advisors were likely pushing for an earlier 
election date in order to leave less time for campaigning (at a 
probable disadvantage to the opposition), Mwanawasa instead listened 
to the Electoral Commission of Zambia Chairperson, and based the 
date selection on his preference for holding a fair election and 
ensuring that sufficient time was allowed for necessary election 
preparations. 
 
MARTINEZ