VZCZCXYZ0051
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLO #6661 2571507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141507Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9028
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC

UNCLAS LONDON 006661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AIAG FOR LANGE, SINGER AND AHMAD, HHS PLEASE PASS TO STEIGER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFLU UK
SUBJECT: UK UPDATE: PANDEMIC FLU PREPAREDNESS 
 
REF: 05 LONDON 8633 
 
 1.(U) Summary.  HMG's contingency plans for pandemic flu 
continue to evolve.  During the past month HMG floated a new 
attack rate (the percentage of the population expected to 
contract the pandemic influenza virus) for contingency 
planning and circulated draft procedures on a new method for 
distributing anti-virals.  The Department of Health (DH) 
predicts HMG will be finished planning by mid-2007. Our 
contacts at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and DH 
re-affirmed their support for the International Partnership 
on Avian and Pandemic Influenza (IPAPI) but expressed some 
unease over the role of the EC and the timing of an upcoming 
meeting in Bamako.   End Summary. 
 
2.(U) A "Letter-to-Colleagues" from Lindsey Davis, HMG's 
National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, made a 
splash in the press with its use of a 35% attack rate for a 
possible pandemic.  This compares with a 25% assumed attack 
rate found in the UK's pandemic contingency plan (see Reftel) 
released in October 2005.  When pressed on the difference our 
DH contact stated there had always been a range of attack 
rates considered in the original contingency plans. 
 
3.(U) Davis's letter also raised for discussion among health 
care providers a new method for distributing anti-virals to 
sick patients (Note.  DH will finish procuring 14.6 million 
doses of the anti-virals, enough to cover 25% of the 
population, by the end of September 2006 End Note.)  The 
proposed new method calls for the establishment of a national 
flu hotline which would feed calls to local flu call centers. 
 At the call centers workers will use a flow chart to 
determine if a patient needs the anti-virals or if the 
patient needs to come to a health center.  If the patient can 
remain at home and needs anti-viral treatment the call 
workers will ask the patient to designate a friend or 
relative to go to an anti-viral depot to pick up the medicine. 
 
4.(U) Our contacts at DH predicted HMG would finish the 
contingency planning for pandemic influenza by mid-2007.  At 
that point the plan would enter a "maintenance" stage. They 
also told us they plan to run an exercise named "Winter 
Willow" in January or February 2007 to test their contingency 
plans. 
 
5.(SBU) While overall very supportive of IPAPI our contacts 
did express some concerns.  They mentioned the EC,s desire 
for a separate place on the core group as a problem area. 
Our DH contact stated the Friends of the Presidency meeting 
on pandemic influenza which will take place on September 26 
in Brussels should lay some of the concerns in this area to 
rest.  Our DH contact also expressed concern about a possible 
scheduling conflict between the December IPAPI meeting in 
Bamako and a Global Health Security Group in Japan at the 
same time. 
 
6.(U) Comment.  HMG's planning on pandemic influenza is now 
progressing from top level programs to specific contingency 
plans for local areas.  HMG continues to be engaged 
positively on IPAPI and is appreciative of the information it 
gains from contacts with HHS and CDC.  While there some 
misgivings over the composition and meeting schedule of IPAPI 
those concerns do not appear to seriously affect the 
commitment of HMG to the overall effort. End Comment. 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm 
Tuttle