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PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #3856/01 2691254
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261254Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6907
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003856 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ KU FREEDOM AGENDA
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS ELECTORAL 
 
REFORM OPENS DOOR TO PARTIES; SHARES VIEWS ON IRAQ, LEBANON 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 3826 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 2871 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF) Summary: In a September 25 meeting with the 
Ambassador, Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi 
highlighted the importance of the recently-passed electoral 
reform legislation for Kuwait's political future.  The new 
electoral system will change the nature of parliamentary 
politics in Kuwait and open the door for political parties 
and, "possibly," a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament.  He 
cautioned, however, that Islamists, who are more organized 
and sophisticated than other political groups, stood to 
benefit most from these reforms.  The Speaker blamed the 
recent Iraq-Kuwait border incidents on "bandits" and claimed 
Iran was not involved.  He stressed the importance of 
initiating a dialogue with Iran on Iraq, "even if you do this 
through the United Kingdom."  On Lebanon, Al-Khorafi advised 
the U.S. not to underestimate Nasrallah's influence and urged 
the international community to be careful of the way it 
intervenes.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C/NF) The Ambassador met September 25 with Jassem 
Al-Khorafi, who was re-elected as Speaker of Parliament in 
July 2006.  The Speaker predicted Islamist parliamentarians 
(MPs), trying to expand their political base to capitalize on 
the new, five-constituency electoral system (ref B), would 
"come on strong" in the next parliamentary session, which 
starts October 30.  He was not optimistic that this 
Parliament would last its full four-year term, noting that 
some groups in Parliament, "eager to please their base," 
could easily cause friction with the Government. 
 
Electoral Reform Opens Door for Other Political Reforms 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) Al-Khorafi stressed the significance of the 
recently-passed electoral reform legislation for Kuwait's 
political future.  Historically, Kuwaitis have voted based on 
three motivations: 1) personal relationships, 2) tribal 
affiliation, and 3) sectarian allegiance, he explained. 
"With five electoral constituencies, it will be different. 
It will be more difficult to depend (solely) on personal 
charisma to win elections."  Al-Khorafi predicted the next 
elections would be based on "political groupings" (ref A) and 
the ones after that on "political parties," though he 
suggested parties could come sooner if Parliament eventually 
approves a one constituency electoral system, something he 
seemed to think likely. 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Once political parties are allowed, Al-Khorafi 
said a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament could follow. 
Already, the constitutional barriers to "grilling" the Prime 
Minister had been removed with the 2003 separation of the 
posts of Crown Prince and Prime Minister, he explained; 
nothing but tradition prevents MPs from putting the Prime 
Minister "on the stand."  Now that the posts have been 
separated, it is very difficult to re-unite them, Al-Khorafi 
said.  He believed the ruling Al-Sabah family would "go along 
with this trend" and not try to resist these changes.  "This 
is what makes us different from other Gulf countries," the 
Speaker concluded.  (Comment: Several MPs' threats to "grill" 
the Prime Minister over electoral reform, which an 
influential ruling family member told the Ambassador was a 
"red line," were one of the primary reasons for the 
dissolution of Parliament in May.  The subsequent elections 
were seen by many here as a referendum on reform and resulted 
in a landslide victory for pro-reform, opposition candidates. 
 These new political developments may influence the Al-Sabah 
to alter their leadership style, however, there is 
considerable opposition from some members of the ruling 
family close to the Amir to any diminution of the Al-Sabah's 
political power.  End comment.) 
 
Islamists Poised to Benefit from Reforms 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) The Speaker cautioned, however, that Islamists 
would benefit most under the new electoral system because 
they were better organized and more sophisticated than other 
political groups.  He cited as an example his belief that 
Islamists successfully leveraged their superior organization 
in the June parliamentary elections to capitalize on women 
voting, and the recent Kuwait University Student Union 
elections in which an Islamist coalition won a landslide 
victory for the 28th straight year.  Right now, "the 
Islamists are enjoying their election victories," Al-Khorafi 
 
KUWAIT 00003856  002 OF 002 
 
 
said, noting that the Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), 
the political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood, had 
succeeded in capturing six seats in Parliament.  He added, 
however, that their gains "don't carry any weight" unless 
they cooperate with other groups on common legislative 
objectives.  The Speaker claimed there were "a lot of 
difficulties within the (18-member) Islamic Bloc."  While the 
six ICM MPs "all talk one language, the group (as a whole) 
doesn't," he said; "the group will not vote together except 
on Islamist issues," like passage of a zakat (religious tax) 
law. 
 
Border Incidents Not Politically-Motivated 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (C/NF) Al-Khorafi blamed the recent Iraq-Kuwait border 
incidents on "bandits" and claimed Iran was not involved.  He 
said the incidents "had nothing to do with politics," adding 
that "Iran is mainly concerned with the future of Iraq and 
how they can play a role in it."  The Speaker emphasized that 
the GOK wanted to "maintain an official dialogue" with the 
Iraqi government and downplay the incidents in official 
statements.  Noting that certain groups in Kuwait were 
"starting to say things" about the incidents, Al-Khorafi said 
he was concerned that the situation could escalate if not 
handled properly.  Given the current instability in Iraq, 
"these types of things (i.e. border incidents) happen," he 
concluded. 
 
Dialogue with Iran on Iraq Essential 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C/NF) The Speaker stressed the importance of initiating 
a dialogue with the Iranian government on Iraq, "even if this 
is through the United Kingdom."  "Time is running," he said. 
The Ambassador replied that the USG previously offered to 
begin such a dialogue to focus on security issues. 
 
"Don't Underestimate Nasrallah's Influence" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C/NF) Turning to Lebanon, Al-Khorafi advised, "Don't 
underestimate (Hassan) Nasrallah's influence."  He continued: 
"The situation will become more serious if we start creating 
heroes where there are none."  The Speaker believed the U.S. 
"did not handle (the conflict) well" and "wasted a lot of 
time" by not getting President Lahoud on board fast enough. 
"Syria is there.  Their groups are there.  The President 
(Lahoud) is there.  These are facts."  Prime Minister Siniora 
"is trying to swim against the current," Al-Khorafi said. 
"He is doing a good job, but he is weak."  He added, though, 
that sometimes Siniora's very weakness strengthened his 
position.  "Unfortunately, the reality of what is happening 
in Lebanon makes it easy for certain groups to use this as a 
justification for their policies in the region.  This is the 
danger," Al-Khorafi argued.  "If the international community 
interferes (in Lebanon), it needs to be very careful as to 
how it does this," he advised.  "You don't need to create new 
enemies, the ones you have are sufficient," Al-Khorafi 
concluded. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
LeBaron