VZCZCXRO5769
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #2246/01 2610929
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 180929Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6320
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0197
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0906
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0746
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0390
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 0425

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002246 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, INR/AAA, INL/AAE AND S/P 
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA 
LONDON FOR POL - AFRICA WATCHER 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL KISL MARR PU SG
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: RULE OF LAW RESOLVES TENSE SECURITY 
THREATS; MFDC STILL PROCURING ARMS AND SEEKING HAVEN 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (C) Two military officers were arrested August 28 for 
plotting to murder the Armed Forces Chief but were 
subsequently released for lack of evidence.  In a separate 
incident reflecting the army's inability to control national 
territory, a Senegalese Movement of the Casamance Democratic 
Forces (MFDC) faction still operating in Guinea-Bissau moved 
arms and established bases despite GOGB claims that they were 
all expelled during the border conflict earlier this year. 
Guinea-Bissau,s armed forces are still stable, but all hopes 
for reform are pinned on the donor,s round table in 
November.  Disappointing results could lead to instability. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
PLOTTING TO MURDER THE ARMED FORCES CHIEF? 
------------------------------------------ 
¶2.  (U) Marine Commodore Lamine Sanha and Lt. Col. Almami 
Alan Camara were arrested and released five days later on 
allegations of plotting the murder of Armed Forces Chief 
Major General Batista Tagme Na Waie.  A single low ranking 
soldier accused the two men of plotting against Tagme and the 
court said there was not enough evidence to hold them.  Tagme 
took the threat seriously since his predecessor, General 
Verissimo Correia Seabra, was murdered by soldiers in 2004 
for delays in salary payment. 
 
¶3.  (C) After their release from detention, the two men told 
the press they were innocent victims of Tagme,s plot to move 
against Muslims in the armed forces and that they would sue 
him for maligning their character.  They claimed Tagme 
targeted them because they were close to deceased General 
Ansumane Mane and of the same ethnic group (Mandinka). 
UNOGBIS, defense attache Col. Ferreira told PolOff that 
Sanha and Camara were political dissidents and that he and 
his colleagues have seen no evidence of prejudice against 
Muslims or Mandinkas in the armed forces.  Aphonso Te, 
advisor to the Prime Minister and former military officer, 
agrees with Ferreira that the two have no following in the 
armed forces and do not represent a serious threat to 
stability or Tagme.  Ferriera believes the most significant 
part of this story is that it played out in court under the 
rule of law. 
 
MFDC REBELS STILL IN GUINEA-BISSAU 
---------------------------------- 
¶4.  (U) Despite GOGB claims that its territory is now 
MFDC-free since the military campaign along the Senegalese 
border in March/April this year, two recent incidents brought 
that claim into question.  In Puerto Bandim in Bissau on 
Sept. 7, five men were arrested for transporting arms 
intended for a newly-arrived group of MFDC rebels.  The owner 
of the canoe who was among those arrested, Maximo Senguibo, 
told the press the arms were destined for Comandante Vie,s 
men located in Varela, 200 kmnorthwest of Bissau.  The 
materiel, which was no well cared for, included 26 light 
machine guns, 0 AK-47 assault rifles, 4 RPG rocket 
launchers, nd about 100 grenades. 
 
¶5.  (C) The MFDC is not ust storing weapons in Guinea-Bissau 
but is alsoreportedly building new bases.  Director of 
de-mning NGO Humaid, former U.S. Ambassador John Blacken 
(protect), told PolOff that an MFDC faction tha assisted the 
Bissau-Guinean military in expelling the Salif Sadio faction 
from its territory has now set up bases near the border with 
Senegal.  The military has not allowed Blacken's organization 
access to conduct de-mining surveys in the area about 11 km. 
west of Sao Domingos, near the location of the deadliest 
single incident in the spring conflict when a civilian 
passenger bus hit a mine causing 11 deaths and more injuries. 
 Blacken said the rebel bases are extremely remote, not 
accessible by any road, and a closely held secret in the 
military. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶6.  (C) The arrest and subsequent release of Sanha and Camara 
and arrest of five arms smugglers are positive signs that 
Guinea-Bissau is relying more on the rule of law despite its 
 
DAKAR 00002246  002 OF 002 
 
 
weak judiciary and lack of prisons.  The military remains 
relatively stable, but observers believe reform efforts have 
stagnated.  There is not yet a final plan for security sector 
reform for the November 7-8 donor,s round table in Geneva, 
but the British government is making one last effort to 
assist in formulating a plan by sending experts to Bissau the 
week of September 25.  Tagme and others are pinning their 
hopes on raising enough in donations to begin reform in 
earnest and that expectation is probably helping keep the lid 
on discontent over slow salary payments and poor conditions 
in the barracks.  If the result is disappointing, continued 
stability will be less certain.  END COMMENT. 
JACOBS