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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001517 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR ELAB AS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER BEAZLEY WILL FIGHT PM HOWARD FOR 
THE POLITICAL CENTER 
 
REF: A. CANBERRA 1425 (VALUES PLEDGE FOR VISAS) 
 
     ¶B. CANBERRA 1410 (ORGANIZED LABOR THROWS DOWN THE 
        GAUNTLET) 
     ¶C. CANBERRA 1366 (AMB INTRODUCTORY CALL ON BEAZLEY) 
     ¶D. CANBERRA 1244 (PM HOWARD STEPS OUT TOWARD 2007 
        ELECTIONS) 
     ¶E. CANBERRA 1172 (LABOR AND UNIONS WOO HOWARD'S 
        BATTLERS) 
     ¶F. SYDNEY 1198 (ALP WINS QUEENSLAND STATE ELECTION) 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (C/NF) During a meeting with poloffs on September 25, 
Opposition and Australian Labor Party (ALP) Leader Kim 
Beazley's principal advisors vowed to fight John Howard,s 
coalition for the political center.  Though the ALP remains 
strongly supportive of the alliance with the United States, 
it will also continue to oppose the Australian military 
presence in Iraq.  While supporting the global war on 
terrorism, a Beazley government would focus its foreign 
policy attention on regional issues, and on "practical" 
domestic security concerns like making the ports and airports 
safer.  The advisors maintained that the strong economy is 
not the election-winning issue many people think it is.  Many 
Australians have big mortgages, they noted, and the reduction 
in worker benefits under the Government's new industrial 
relations (IR) laws is frightening voters.  In his campaign, 
Beazley will concentrate on "family issues" such as child 
care, education and skills training.  The insistence of Kim 
Beazley for Australian values in immigration (see ref A) is 
also a key part of the ALP,s move to the center, according 
to his advisors. 
 
ONLY FOREIGN POLICY DIFFERENCE IS IRAQ 
 
¶2. (C/NF) On September 25, poloffs called on Kim Beazley's 
Chief of Staff David Fredericks (Protect), his principal 
policy advisor Michael Cooney (Protect), and his principal 
political advisor Jim Chalmers (Protect) to discuss the 
ALP,s policy stances in leadup to next year,s elections. 
They readily acknowledged PM Howard's advantage on national 
security but felt that Beazley,s credentials were just as 
strong.  He had been defense minister during the Hawke Labor 
Government; he was strong on the alliance with the United 
States and had signed the agreement establishing the Pine Gap 
facility.  If Beazley could "get a draw" with the Government 
on national security it would be enough. 
 
¶3. (C/NF) The only real foreign policy difference between the 
ALP and the Coalition was Iraq, Beazley's advisors noted. 
Labor would keep Australian forces in Afghanistan but not 
Iraq.  The ALP policy platform would instead give more 
emphasis to regional security concerns and pay more attention 
to "practical" domestic issues like airports, ports and 
infrastructure security. 
 
THE ECONOMY IS NOT STRONG FOR MANY VOTERS 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Beazley's advisors claimed that the economy is not 
the winning issue the Coalition thinks it is, and the changes 
in the IR laws will convince voters to switch to Labor.  The 
current resource boom that is driving the economy ("digging 
rocks out of the ground") is subject to international market 
and political volatility.  Many Australians, feeling wealthy 
because of rising property values over recent years, have 
assumed heavy debts and are apprehensive over benefits that 
they could lose under Howard,s Industrial Relations law 
changes.  They added that while older workers have some 
bargaining power with their employers, their children 
entering the workforce will have no protection.  ALP will 
address the fears of Australia,s workers over the security 
of their jobs. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Fredericks and Chalmers noted that Australia has 
fared poorly in education investment and the ALP will 
highlight Australia,s urgent need to produce skilled and 
smart workers able to compete in an increasingly interwoven 
international economy.  A middle-sized country like Australia 
needs to emphasize education and skills training if it is to 
compete globally, Fredericks stressed, and the Howard 
 
CANBERRA 00001517  002 OF 002 
 
 
Government, by not emphasizing education, has left the 
country,s workers and his government vulnerable. 
 
QUEENSLAND IS THE KEY TO AN ALP VICTORY 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Political advisor Chalmers agreed that capturing 
the parliamentary seats narrowly won by the Coalition in 2004 
(called "marginal seats" in the Australian political lexicon) 
will be vital next year.  While there are a few 
seats in the states of Victoria and South Australia and NSW 
that the ALP is focusing on, he said, the seats in Queensland 
will be the key to the election.  While the ALP controls the 
state parliament, and recently won a big victory (ref F), 75 
percent of the members of the Federal Parliament are from the 
Coalition.  If the voters of Queensland can vote for the ALP 
at the state level, they should be able to do so at the 
Federal level as well. 
 
THE 2007 ELECTION WILL BE A FIGHT FOR THE POLITICAL CENTER 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Fredericks remarked that elections are won in the 
center, which is why Beazley's call for an Australian values 
pledge was important.  Labor needs to recapture those blue 
collar voters who have sacrificed their economic 
interest for an ideological one.  Respect for the rights of 
the worker is also an Australian value, Chalmers noted, and 
the ALP believes the IR issue will help them win back these 
voters (known as "Howard's battlers").  When asked about the 
Green Party, Chalmers responded that the ALP wanted the 10 
percent in the Center, not the 10 percent on the Left -- and 
70 percent of the Greens vote Labor with their second 
preference vote in any case. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. (C/NF) These senior advisors confirmed what we have been 
reporting (refs B and E): the changes to the workplace 
relations laws will be a key issue in the election campaign. 
Despite the fact that the Australian public seems to be 
satisfied with the status quo and has reelected 12 of the 14 
incumbent government since 2001, Chalmers strongly believes 
that voter antipathy to the new IR laws will be enough to 
stimulate a switch to Labor. That remains to be seen, but the 
ALP clearly has a well thought-out strategy that they believe 
will give them a fighting chance of winning the Federal 
election next year. 
MCCALLUM