VZCZCXRO3724
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCI #0401/01 2501315
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071315Z SEP 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1141
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1022
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0397
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0397
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0237
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0237
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0186
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1394

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN PINR
SUBJECT: JHARKAND'S GOVERNMENT BEGINS TO CRUMBLE, WITH LITTLE HOPE 
FOR A STABLE OUTCOME 
 
REF: A)NEW DELHI 1519, B)NEW DELHI 1304, C)CALCUTTA 072, D)CALCUTTA 107 
 
¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  The fate of the Jharkhand state government, 
led by Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Arjun Munda, has become 
uncertain with the resignation of four ministers.   However, the 
shape of an alternative formation is still unclear, with major 
national parties like the Indian National Congress (Congress) 
and the BJP taking a cautious approach because of national 
ramifications.  Jharkhand is going to witness intense political 
maneuvering in the short term, even as governance and 
development come to a halt.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  On September 5, four ministers of the Jharkhand 
government -- Madhu Koda (Parlimentary Affairs), Enos Ekka 
(Rural Development), Harinarayan Rai (Forestry) and Kamlesh 
Singh (Water Resources) - resigned, citing Chief Minister Arjun 
Munda's condescending attitude and lack of confidence in them. 
With the four ministers quitting, Munda now has the support of 
39 legislators -- two short of a majority -- in the 81-member 
House.  He met with Jharkand Governor Syed Sibte Razi on 
September 6 to say that despite the rift in the ranks, he is 
confident of proving his majority. Media reports indicate that 
the Governor asked Munda to prove his majority on or before 
September 14, giving the CM seven days to drum up support. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The Jharkand government had been run by the National 
Democratic Alliance (NDA), a BJP-led coalition.  While the NDA 
is eager to save its remaining state governments, the United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the Congress Party, is 
divided as to whether it wants to precipitate political change 
in Jharkhand. The Congress does not want to replicate the fiasco 
of March 2005, when the UPA-backed JMM candidate was defeated in 
a no-confidence motion ordered by the Supreme Court (Note: The 
Court had to intervene following a complaint by the NDA that the 
Governor had acted in a partisan manner to appoint JMM's Shibu 
Soren as Chief Minister even when he did not have the necessary 
majority. The Supreme Court's directive and Munda's subsequent 
victory at the no-confidence motion resulted in a political 
advantage for the NDA. End Note). 
 
¶4.  (U)  The Congress party is also chastened by the reversal 
they suffered in Bihar caused in part by high-handedness of the 
Congress-friendly Governor there, and sources in Delhi indicate 
the Congress has decided that the Governor in Jharkhand should 
appear above the fray as the Munda government flails about for 
the next week to salvage its position.  In the meantime, 
Congress has supposedly very quietly asked Bihari strongman and 
Union Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav to start working below 
radar to nudge Munda's government over the edge.   Congress took 
this decision because it does not want to spark immediate 
BJP/NDA reprisals in states where the Congress might also be 
similarly vulnerable. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Sources told post that a week's time was long enough 
for Munda and the NDA leadership to work out a strategy for 
remaining in power in Jharkand.  Munda appears to have a few 
options: he can try to convince the rebel ministers to return to 
his fold.  He can reach out to smaller parties in the Assembly 
and seek their support if the rebels do not fall in line.  He 
can also possibly engineer a split in the Opposition groups, 
many of whom would be eager to be in the government.  For the 
UPA, the seven-day window will be a chance to decide whether it 
wants to stitch together a coalition that can replace 
Jharkhand's NDA government.  While the Rashtriya Janata Dal 
(RJD), the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Left - all UPA 
allies -- are eager to oust the NDA from Jharkhand, the Congress 
has decided to take a "cautious" approach. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Comment.  As the numbers stack up now, any government 
in Jharkhand will be unstable.  The Congress will not like to 
give the impression of a "power-hungry" party, and will, at the 
most, back a UPA candidate for chief minister and support the 
government from outside.  The names of one of the defectors, 
Madhu Koda, and former CM Shibu Soren (of JMM) have already been 
mentioned as possible UPA-backed candidates for the chief 
minister's slot.  Federal Railways Minister and RJD leader Lalu 
Prasad Yadav is not averse to backing Soren, but will not like 
to take any overt action.  Meanwhile, the NDA, trying to save 
the Jharkhand government, is busy drumming up support for Munda. 
 In the middle of this fast-changing scenario, the idea of 
calling for fresh elections by annulling the legislature is also 
making the rounds.  The demand for fresh elections will find 
backers across Jharkhand's political spectrum if Munda fails to 
establish a convincing majority on September 14. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Comment Continued:  Political vulnerability was built 
 
CALCUTTA 00000401  002 OF 002 
 
 
into Jharkhand's NDA government from the very beginning due to 
the fragility of the NDA coalition.   Switching of allegiance by 
a few legislators is enough to bring down any government.  The 
UPA coalition in Jharkand is no better, (it is more fractured 
than the NDA coalition), and it is equally vulnerable if not 
more so. While a section within the Congress will push for fresh 
elections, the BJP and its allies - given the adverse national 
political scenario - will most likely go all out to save the 
present government.  Meanwhile, for mineral-rich Jharkhand, lack 
of governance will lead to deterioration of law and order and 
stalled economic development in a state that has good investment 
potential.  But until Jharkhand's political establishment cleans 
up its act, such investments will remain only in the realm of 
possibility.  Ultimately, the immediate net effect of all this 
local intrigue on politics at the Centre will be minimal, but 
does serve as a barometer of the failing health of the NDA 
nationwide.  End Comment. 
JARDINE