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INFO RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002214 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: MEETING WITH OPPOSITION RADICAL CIVIC 
UNION PARTY LEADERS 
 
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01978 
          ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 01324 
 
Classified By: CDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and 
Poloffs met with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party 
leaders to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine 
multi-party system.  They explained that while they are 
concerned for the health of their party as Kirchner tries to 
recruit from within their ranks, they remain optimistic about 
the UCR's chances for a strong showing in the presidential 
elections next year.  They said the UCR will probably support 
ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna as their presidential 
candidate next year.  The Radicals said that they see 
Kirchner as moving to solidify his power and that this makes 
him more difficult to beat in elections but not invincible. 
They said Argentina currently does not have a foreign policy, 
owing to a lack of vision of what role Argentina should play 
in the international arena.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------ 
Health of the UCR 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and Poloffs met 
with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party leaders over 
lunch to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine 
multi-party system.  National Congressman and President of 
the Radical Party Robert Iglesias, National Senator and 
President of the Senate Radical Party Bloc Ernesto Sanz, 
President of the Radical Party National Convention Dr. Adolfo 
Stubrin, and BA city Radical Party leader, former 
Congressman, and former Minister of Economy Dr. Jesus 
Rodriguez attended the lunch on behalf of the UCR.  The group 
explained that they are concerned for the health of their 
party as Kirchner tries to recruit from within their ranks. 
Nevertheless, they remain optimistic about the UCR's chances 
for a strong showing in the presidential elections next year. 
 They feel there is plenty of time for Kirchner's popularity 
to wane and for their candidate to gain.  The key challenge 
to the UCR and other opposition parties is how to explain the 
danger of weak institutions to an electorate that is pleased 
with the health of the economy.  However, they conceded the 
UCR is split over how to counter Kirchner's power.  One camp 
thinks the party should concentrate its efforts within the 
UCR to counter Kirchner, while the other thinks the party 
should make alliances with other opposition groups.  They 
agreed that ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna would likely 
end up being the UCR presidential candidate. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
UCR Views on Kirchner and Foreign Policy 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  The Radicals said that they see Kirchner as moving 
to solidify his power and that this will make him more 
difficult to beat in next year's elections.  They claimed, 
however, that Kirchner's aura of invincibility was damaged 
when he failed to win more than 50 percent of the vote in 
last October's legislative elections.  They said Kirchner 
controls the national discourse by never holding press 
conferences, and that newspapers act as tools of the 
government by not publishing stories because of government 
pressure or by publishing reports that Kirchner's people have 
drafted.  They claimed Kirchner is the only leader in the 
world that does not meet with his cabinet, leaving him 
unadvised on many issues.  Furthermore, the people around 
Kirchner are afraid to tell him when things may not be going 
well.  They feel he ""jumps"" on issues without thinking of a 
strategy first, making his politics and his governing very 
reactive and short term -- characteristics they say could 
lead to a long-term decline in his popularity. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The Radicals said that Argentina currently does 
not have a foreign policy.  They said that Argentina is 
unsure of what role it wants to play in the international 
arena, and therefore has no organized foreign policy.  They 
see Argentina's interaction with Venezuela as simply 
business.  They feel that Venezuelan President Chavez is 
probably just making money off of Argentina and that there is 
no deeper foreign policy basis for the relationship. 
 
¶5. (C) COMMENT:  For a party which barely drew double digit 
support in last year's elections and is deeply divided 
internally, their optimism about the future is hard to take 
very seriously.  Likewise, their view that Kirchner was 
weakened by his failure to receive more than 50 percent of 
the vote in the October 2005 elections is not validated by 
Kirchner's near 70 percent approval ratings.  However, the 
UCR remains the only non-Peronist party with a national 
infrastructure and this by itself will guarantee the party a 
 
BUENOS AIR 00002214  002 OF 002 
 
 
role in next year's elections, either as a vehicle for 
Lavagna or as a partner in a broader opposition coalition. 
END COMMENT. 
 
 
MATERA 
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