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FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3076
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0249
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 7616
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 003105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2011 
TAGS: PINS PGOV EFIN BE AF LE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM PRIME MINISTER DESCRIBES SHIFT ON PLANNED 
AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENT 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 3040 
 
Classified By: A/DCM TERRI ROBL; REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The Belgians may send additional air 
assets to Afghanistan, rather than ground troops, according 
to Prime Minister Verhofstadt.  In a meeting with the 
Ambassador on September 11, Verhofstadt also said the 
Belgian contingent in Lebanon was working with a 1,000 
person Chinese de-mining unit.  Referring to politics, 
Verhofstadt was positive about his party's chances in the 
local elections set for October 8, and indicated he would 
call federal elections in late May or early June, thereby 
maximizing his ability to avoid lame duck status.  As 
always, the upbeat, confident prime minister seems to 
thrive on challenges, in this case the three year freefall 
in the popularity of his governing coalition.  Ambassador 
also mentioned that negotiators had initialed a new 
bilateral tax treaty, and suggested the Prime Minister 
might want to sign it with the Secretary of Treasury when 
it is ready.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Ambassador and DCM met with Belgian Prime Minister 
Verhofstadt on September 11.  In addition to thanking the 
Prime Minister for participating in the Embassy's 
remembrance service earlier that day, the Ambassador used 
the occasion to discuss the future of Belgium's deployment 
in Afghanistan, other pol-mil issues, and the current 
political scene.  Highlights of the discussion follow 
below. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Afghanistan -- Belgium to meet commitment, but rethinking 
how to do it 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶3. (C) In response to a question from the Ambassador, the 
Prime Minister said the Belgians would send additional 
forces to Afghanistan, but would not be able to send a 
300-soldier ground unit as suggested earlier.  The current 
idea was to offer either a squadron of F-16s (including 
associated ground support) totaling about 80 people, or to 
assign a land forces component to a joint Franco-Turkish 
company.  The roughly 300 Belgian troops now at Kabul 
airport will remain in place. When the Prime Minister said 
he had not made up his mind which military units to send, 
the Ambassador proposed asking NATO what they preferred. 
The Prime Minister welcomed this and said he would use the 
information/justification in announcing the final decision 
at his "State of the Union" speech to Parliament in 
mid-October.  The Ambassador agreed to push NATO to give a 
frank assessment of which type of Belgian contribution 
would be most useful.  (Note:  In discussing this subject, 
addresses should carefully protect the source, not least 
because the final shape of the Belgian contribution is 
still under debate within a coalition that does not 
entirely support the idea in the first place.  End note) 
 
------- 
Lebanon 
------- 
 
¶4. (C) The Ambassador also thanked the Prime Minister for 
Belgium's contribution to the revamped UNIFIL 
organization.  Verhofstadt expressed appreciation, adding 
that the Belgian group would be working closely with a 
Chinese de-mining contingent of about 1,000 people.  In the 
meantime, the Belgians have been in touch with the Israelis 
to obtain minefield maps.  On a separate military topic, 
Verhofstadt indicated the Belgians would be returning an 
F-16 squadron to the Baltics.  He gave no details about 
timing. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Politics -- Federal Elections in May/June, Bitter-sounding 
Squabbles Part of the Game 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) With federal elections required before the end of 
June 2007, Verfhofstadt said he was determined to have his 
cabinet continue for as long as possible.  Accordingly, he 
expected to schedule the polls during either the last week 
of May or the start of June.  By not holding the vote at an 
earlier date (as some in the opposition have suggested), 
Verhofstadt hopes to put off becoming a lame duck for the 
longest possible time. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Verhofstadt professed little concern about 
increasingly bitter squabbling between the country's two 
 
other leading politicians, Flemish Minister-President 
Leterme (Christian Democrat) and Walloon Minister-President 
Di Rupo (Socialist).  Leterme's strident attacks on the 
Francophone community, and Di Rupo's equally spirited 
attacks on the Flemish were tactical, as the senior leaders 
of both the Flemish Christian Democrats and French 
Socialists wanted to burnish their image as defenders of 
their respective communities.  The two will find a way to 
make deals about political matters when the time comes, 
according to Verhofstadt. 
 
---------- 
Extremists 
---------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Prime Minister also saw little reason for 
concern about the arrest on September 7 of seventeen 
suspected far-right extremists (reftel).  Their 
organization was "bad but not big."  The police had been 
tracking the group for two years and have thoroughly 
penetrated it with informers.   Verhofstadt claimed they 
had ties to extremists in the U.S., and noted that the 
investigating magistrate had decided to roll up the outfit 
when it appeared there was an increased risk of weapons 
being used.  Verhofstadt insisted that members were not 
presently in the military, but readily conceded some had 
been in the military.  The weapons were commercially 
available rather than military issue. (Note: We are 
following up on the purported U.S. connection. The 
authorities formally charged twelve people on September 
12 End note) 
 
---------------------- 
Double Txation Treaty 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. (U The Prime Minister was very interested in the 
"initialing" of the Double Taxation Treaty which he 
raised when he met with the President last January.  He 
said he would be interested in going to the U.S. to sign 
the treaty at the Treasury or having Secretary Paulsen 
coming to Belgium for a signing ceremony. 
 
----- 
Swift 
----- 
 
¶9. (C) The Ambassador raised the Swift issue.  He Prime 
Minister was sanguine about it and said he had asked for 
an investigation to get it out of the political arena and 
out of the Belgian Parliament.  (Further details septel). 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Verhofstadt's legendary confidence and energy were 
very much in evidence during the Ambassador's session with 
him.  Without ever referring to his party's slide in the 
polls from first to fourth place since taking office in 
2003, he noted simply that he faced a tough election, but 
expected to come out on top.  In the meantime, he relished 
the challenge of managing Belgium's government. 
KOROLOGOS 
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