VZCZCXRO4219
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRL #2769/01 2631114
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 201114Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5336
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 002769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2021 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: CDU/CSU AND SPD INTERNAL DISCONTENT: IMPACT ON 
MERKEL AND THE GRAND COALITION 
 
REF: BERLIN 1893 
 
Classified By: PolCouns John Bauman.  Reason: 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  Chancellor Merkel begins the fall political 
season in a secure position, despite sniping from rivals 
within her own party and tensions between the coalition 
partners at the party level.  However, party sources and 
polls indicate discontent remains significant.  The SPD is 
plagued by similar problems and in addition faces political 
challenges from right and left.  Though neither Merkel nor 
the Grand Coalition is in danger, the fall is likely to see 
continued tension within and between the Union and SPD, which 
will limit the Chancellor's and government's room for 
maneuver on key domestic and foreign policy issues.  We do 
not expect intramural strife in the Union and SPD to stop 
reform efforts or prevent Germany from taking on new 
international responsibilities.  End Summary. 
 
CDU/CSU Discontent 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The summer's open criticisms of the Chancellor 
coincided with and reinforced a slide in opinion polls for 
both the CDU/CSU and Merkel.  The CDU slipped from an average 
of around 37 percent to around 32 percent in late August.  A 
September poll indicated 51 percent of CDU/CSU voters were 
disappointed with their parties and CDU contacts report that 
the mood among parliamentarians is sour.  The Chancellor's 
poll slide has also been significant -- she has slipped from 
first to third place (behind the SPD's Kurt Beck and 
Frank-Walter Steinmeier) in one popularity measure and a poll 
on voter satisfaction with Merkel showed her slipping from 63 
to 56 percent from June to August.  Discontent in the CDU 
falls into three main categories: 
 
-- The free-market oriented wing of the party and the 
Christian social wing (also especially strong in the CSU) 
both are unhappy with the government's policies.  The former 
(largely in business circles) sees a betrayal of the party's 
campaign commitment to increase economic freedom.  The latter 
(led in particular by North-Rhine Westphalia 
Minister-President Juergen Ruettgers) fears the abandonment 
of the party's commitment to the "social-market."  Merkel 
has, however, sought to position herself in the center of 
this debate. 
 
-- Both factions agree that Merkel has not pushed hard enough 
for conservative policies within the coalition. 
 
-- Merkel and her proteges in the leadership have been 
pushing for a modernization of the party's understanding of 
society (e.g., more acceptance of non-traditional lifestyles, 
immigrants, and working women).  A large, predominantly rural 
and religiously committed, segment of the party objects to 
these trends.  . 
 
SPD Not Better Off 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Though spared the summer's public infighting, and 
holding steady in polls at around 30 percent, the SPD is in 
fact no better off.  67 percent of SPD voters in the 
September poll said they were disappointed with the party. 
The SPD's public image has benefited from the novelty and 
charisma of new Chairman Kurt Beck and the prominence of 
Foreign Minister Steinmeier.  But party contacts also report 
that activists, especially at the mid-levels, are unhappy 
with the government's direction and in the spring the SPD 
suffered through a public fight over strategy between 
Vice-Chancellor Muentefering and then-Chairman Platzeck.  In 
addition, the SPD faces political challenges from the Left 
Party.PDS and from the right as the CDU modernizes its social 
message. 
 
Discontent Not Fatal 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) These discontents will continue, but their impact 
should not be exaggerated.  Neither party has reason to 
believe it would receive a stronger mandate from early 
elections.  There is no sign that cabinet relationships have 
been damaged -- cabinet discipline continues to hold and 
contacts tell us the working relationships among the cabinet 
and senior parliamentary leadership remain good.  During the 
Bundestag's annual Budget Debate (in fact, a general policy 
debate) on Sept. 6, Ministers strongly defended the 
government's positions and policies.  The Chancellor made 
only a few, indirect remarks directed at the SPD - for 
example noting that SPD leader Beck's recent call for greater 
attention to the productive (i.e., middle) classes was an 
 
BERLIN 00002769  002 OF 002 
 
 
adoption of long-standing CDU/CSU policy.  Likewise, SPD 
leaders were restrained -- SPD caucus leader Struck recalled 
that his party would have preferred to see health reform take 
a different turn.  The SPD leadership has focused its 
criticism of the CDU/CSU on Minister-Presidents who oppose 
government plans for health care reform. 
 
But Is a Constraint 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Though strife in the coalition will not stop reform 
efforts or prevent Germany from taking on new international 
responsibilities, it puts a brake on Merkel's government, 
forcing her to widen the decision-making circle to maintain 
unity.  An example is health care reform -- one of Merkel's 
key priorities -- which has been postponed in the face of 
rising opposition from the states and within the Bundestag 
caucuses.  Strains have also reportedly led the government to 
back off plans for cuts in business taxes and laws protecting 
workers against dismissal.  A more cautious government will 
look long and hard at foreign policy initiatives and may not 
be able to decide quickly (e.g., Lebanon).  This will not 
diminish the commitment of Merkel's government to 
trans-Atlanticism and a strong relationship with the U.S., 
but we may need to factor in the increasingly deliberate (and 
deliberative) nature of her management of the Grand 
Coalition.  End Comment. 
TIMKEN JR