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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005098 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2021 
TAGS: PREL PGOV USUN LE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S GOVERNMENT PREPARED FOR PARLIAMENTARY 
VOTE TODAY ON LEBANON DEPLOYMENT 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 5020 
 
     ¶B. ANKARA 4978 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), 
(d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  After a lengthy meeting of party MPs on 
September 4, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) 
has its ducks in a row for today's parliamentary vote to 
approve deploying Turkish troops to Lebanon.  PM Erdogan was 
not able to eliminate all dissent, but Embassy contacts 
report that he persuaded a few more key deputies to his side. 
 FM Gul and opposition party leaders will each speak for 20 
minutes at the extraordinary session, scheduled to begin at 3 
pm (8 am EDT).  The vote will be open, with each vote 
recorded electronically.  Public opposition to a troop 
deployment continues to run high, with demonstrations by 
student groups and opposition parties planned.  Erdogan's 
personal commitment, the AKP's substantial parliamentary 
majority and the open vote procedure make it highly likely 
the motion to deploy troops will pass.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) PM Erdogan wrapped up a weekend of lobbying AKP 
deputies with a lengthy meeting with party MPs on September 4 
to solidify support for today's parliamentary vote on 
contributing Turkish troops to UNIFIL.  Embassy contacts who 
attended last night's closed meeting reported good party 
unity on the motion, although a few AKP deputies continue to 
oppose a deployment.  Erdogan reportedly reiterated that this 
will be a peacekeeping and humanitarian mission; Turkish 
troops will not be deployed to disarm combatants and will not 
be stationed where clashes are likely to occur.  He and FM 
Gul stressed the important regional role Turkey can and must 
play by contributing troops, particularly since the Lebanese 
and Israeli governments have both encouraged Turkey to 
participate.  The appeal persuaded a few more key deputies to 
support the motion, most notably TGNA Foreign Affairs 
Committee Chairman Mehmet Dulger.  Dulger, who had earlier 
voiced concern about sending troops, reportedly told the 
assembled AKP deputies that he now supports a deployment. 
Media reports predict a maximum of 25 AKP dissenters, out of 
the party's 355 seats. 
 
¶3. (C)  The extraordinary session, which is set for 3pm (8am 
EDT), will start with 20-minute speeches by FM Gul and 
opposition leaders from the Republican People's Party (CHP) 
and the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN).  Two or three other 
deputies may also address the assembly. Votes will be tallied 
electronically.  While the opposition is united against the 
motion, they do not have the numbers to offset the AKP's 
substantial parliamentary majority. 
 
¶4. (C)  Public opposition to a troop deployment continues to 
run high.  Demonstrations scheduled by NGOs, student groups 
and the opposition CHP at various locations in Ankara are not 
expected to attract large turnouts as universities are still 
in summer recess and reportedly no permits have been issued. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment.  Erdogan's calculated strategy to win over 
reluctant AKP deputies has shored up party unity on a 
publicly unpopular issue.  His personal outreach and 
assurances aimed at addressing MPs' concerns will ensure a 
solid majority vote in favor of deploying troops at today's 
parliamentary session.  End comment. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON