VZCZCXRO8605
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHHM RUEHJO RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHPB
RUEHRN
DE RUEHUJA #2509/01 2680835
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 250835Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7246
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RHFMISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0024
RHCKJAC/JAC RAF MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP/ASD-HD//
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDA FAS WASHDC FOR FAA/RANDY HAGER 
USDA FOR APHIS/JOHN SHAW 
USDA FOR WAYNE MOLSTAD/OSEC 
USAID/W FOR AFR/WA ANGELA LOZANO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU EAGR EAID NI AVIANFLU
SUBJECT: SURVEY VIEWS AVIAN FLU'S NIGERIA ECONOMIC IMPACT 
 
REF:  ABUJA 2238 
 
ABUJA 00002509  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. Summary.  A team from the USG's Famine Early Warning Systems 
Network (FEWS NET) visited six Nigerian states in August to assess 
the avian influenza socioeconomic impact on Nigeria's poultry 
sector.  Nigeria has about 36% of West Africa's poultry and the 
sub-region's most modern poultry sector.  The team found that 
poultry was Nigeria's most important source of meat.  The FEWS NET 
report expressed serious concern over Nigerians' losses of backyard 
flocks, which represent household protein and purchasing power 
derived from "egg money" affecting both income and nutrition for 
many Nigerian households.  End summary. 
 
¶2. Members of the U.S. Government's Famine Early Warning Systems 
Network (FEWS NET) made a presentation on August 25 in Abuja to 
officials from the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS) and USAID Abuja on the socioeconomic impact of avian 
influenza (AI) in Niger and Nigeria.  The FEWS NET team will issue a 
full report.  FEWS NET invited officials from Nigeria's Ministries 
of Agriculture and Health, but none attended. 
 
¶3. The five-member FEWS NET field team, accompanied by a UN Food for 
Peace anthropologist, carried out detailed interviews between August 
2-18 in the states of Sokoto, Niger, Plateau, Kaduna, and Kano, as 
well as in the Federal Capital Territory.  The team conducted 
interviews only in one urban area and its environs in each state. 
While the findings are not comprehensive and cover only the 
country's middle belt and north, they provide valuable information 
about Nigeria's poultry sector, much of which is informal and poorly 
understood. 
 
Poultry's Importance in West Africa 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. Poultry farming represents a significant part of the agricultural 
and livestock economy of West Africa.  Livestock production, 
especially poultry, is an important source of income and food 
security for more than 40% of the region's population.  West Africa 
has more than 387 million poultry birds, which constitute about 24% 
of the meat consumed in the region.  Poultry provides 8% of the 
animal protein eaten in the region -- which represents 16% of total 
protein consumed.  Nigeria has about 36% of West Africa's poultry 
and the most modern poultry sector in the sub-region. 
 
AI's economic impact in Nigeria is not clear 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Statistics in Nigeria are fragmentary.  The FEWS NET researchers 
concluded, after extrapolating from 1990 Ministry of Agriculture 
information, that poultry was Nigeria's most important source of 
meat and was 36% of meat production in the country.  Their report 
expressed serious concern over Nigeria's loss of backyard flocks, 
that for many households represent protein and household purchasing 
power derived from "egg money."  The report did not estimate the 
percentage of Nigerian households that lost flocks because of AI. 
 
¶6. The team found that many families had not planted grain at the 
start of the growing season because they could not sell their 
poultry for cash to buy seeds.  There likely will be repercussions 
later in the season from this decrease in planting. The smallest 
farmers, whose backyard flock usually is five to 10 birds, normally 
do not depend on money from their chickens to use to buy seeds and 
fertilizer.  Nigeria's grain harvest reason runs from August to 
October of each year.  For corn, production is concentrated in the 
heart of the north, where there is only one season.  In Nigeria's 
southern and middle-belt states, there are normally two grain 
harvesting seasons: July to August and October to November. 
 
¶7. Because corn is the main product used in poultry feed, the FEWS 
NET report concluded that AI at its peak in the areas surveyed 
caused corn's wholesale price for a 100-kg sack (220 pounds, 
although in actuality, between 80 to 100 kg, or 176 to 220 pounds) 
to fall from 6,000 naira in 2005 to 3,000 naira in 2006.  This 
decreased demand for corn likely will result in a smaller corn crop 
in 2006.  (Comment:  The agricultural attache does not agree with 
the FEWS NET report's conclusion about AI's having depressed corn 
prices and says low corn prices instead are likely due to a large 
 
ABUJA 00002509  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
corn crop.  End comment.) 
 
¶8. In some states, such as Kano, poultry is Nigerians' leading 
source of meat.  Sokoto State's rural areas have a mainly 
traditional poultry production system and poultry numbers are 
limited by poultry diseases.  The researchers found that villagers 
in Sokoto's village of Roumdji Kadji owned on the average five to 20 
birds per household, with 85% of households raising poultry.  In the 
area of Jos in Plateau State, whose conditions are more conducive to 
poultry, nearly every household in the village of Tahos owned 
poultry, with an average of 30 birds per household. 
 
¶9. From the harvest period to January, poultry sales were low in 
northern rural areas, in part because varied sources of income were 
available.  From January to May, poultry sales increased, as farmers 
took greater care against poultry diseases and sold poultry to buy 
fertilizer.  During the peak of AI infections in the areas surveyed, 
the poultry trade was seriously affected and ceased in some poultry 
markets.  The amount of poultry sold decreased markedly.  The level 
of poultry consumption decreased, mainly among urban and peri-urban 
customers.  The number of persons employed by the poultry sector 
decreased.  Most owners lost a large chunk of their working capital, 
and some remain hesitant to make new investments in poultry.  There 
is little available working capital for poultry sellers and others 
associated with the sector, and there is a limited investment 
capacity in the poultry sector. 
 
Trends in poultry prices 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. Before the upsurge of AI, prices per bird ranged from 400 to 700 
naira ($3 to $5.50) in the areas surveyed.  As AI spread, prices 
dropped to 150 to 350 naira per bird.  This situation lasted for two 
to 12 weeks, depending on the market.  The researchers found the 
situation was returning to normal, and that prices regaining their 
former level while poultry availability increased, although poultry 
consumption in the areas surveyed was not back at 100% of its former 
level.  During the "crisis period," the price of poultry was lower 
than other meat.  The prices of red meat and fish were largely 
stable, even though there was increased demand for beef, lamb, and 
goat.  The demand for fish was greater than the supply during the 
peak of AI's extent, and fish sellers' profits increased somewhat. 
Overall, poor households will have more limited access to poultry, 
with negative nutritional consequences. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. Nigeria's poultry sector remains heavily informal and unmeasured 
outside the large commercial poultry farms in the southwest.  While 
the FEWS NET report's findings were not definitive, they made clear 
the important role of poultry in Nigeria, including for sellers, 
consumers, and suppliers.  Greater losses in the poultry sector will 
have a commensurate impact on Nigerian household members' income and 
nutrition.