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Viewing cable 06SOFIA1162, BULGARIA SPARRING AGAINST RUSSIAN ENERGY DEPENDENCE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SOFIA1162 2006-08-15 13:36 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Sofia
Appears in these articles:
http://www.bivol.bg/wlbelene.html
http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2011/04/29/1082317_mrusna_energiia/
http://wlcentral.org/node/1722
VZCZCXRO0748
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSF #1162/01 2271336
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151336Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2392
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY PRIORITY 0096
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0676
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY 0030
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 0022
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV PRIORITY 0510
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0564
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 001162 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2016 
TAGS: ENRG ECON EPET PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA SPARRING AGAINST RUSSIAN ENERGY DEPENDENCE 
 
REF: A. SOFIA 632 
 
     B. SOFIA 310 
     C. SOFIA 202 
     D. SOFIA 190 
 
Classified By: CDA Alex Karagiannis for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY/ACTION REQUEST:  Bulgarian leaders are 
battling against the grip that Russia increasingly holds over 
the energy sector here, but are struggling to strengthen 
their position.  President Purvanov and Prime Minister 
Stanishev appear especially concerned; Minister of Economy 
and Energy Ovcharov less so, perhaps due to his long history 
of working with the Russian energy sector.  None sees any 
advantage in confronting Russia directly; all have strong 
interests in maintaining good relations with Moscow.  The 
Russian energy web extends to gas, oil-pipeline construction 
and the bidding to build a nuclear power plant at Belene. 
Bulgarian officials are increasingly willing to stand up to 
Russian pressure and they are open to alternative mechanisms 
for meeting their energy needs, particularly if they involve 
the EU and/or U.S.  ACTION REQUEST: We strongly recommend a 
September visit by DAS Matt Bryza to buck up the Bulgarians 
and shape their strategic vision on energy diversity.  We 
encourage visits by other speakers or experts to buttress USG 
energy policies.  END SUMMARY 
 
GAS: FORCED BY RUSSIA TO STRIKE A DEAL 
 
2. (C) Some sobering statistics: Bulgaria gets 88 percent of 
its gas and 73 percent of its oil from Russia.  The 
government wants to loosen Russia's grip especially on 
Russian gas.  It fears its only option may be to agree to 
current Gazprom demands to increase the price on gas 
contracts.  Without such an agreement, the Bulgarians fear 
they will lose an opportunity to lock in prices - and future 
transit fees - at currently advantageous levels, and are 
afraid the Russians will follow through on threats to divert 
transit gas to Blue Stream.  The current high energy prices 
fuel concerns here that now is the time to make a deal. 
 
3. (C) Ovcharov and Gazprom's Medvedev plan to meet in Vienna 
on August 21 under the guise of "vacations" to try to 
finalize a deal.  Ovcharov told Ambassador Beyrle on August 9 
that he was not sure if they could come to a final agreement. 
 He also said the Russians have agreed to a phased-in period 
of price increases over five to six years, and an increase in 
transit fees.  Aside from the price, outstanding questions 
include the quantity of gas to flow through Bulgaria to third 
countries after 2010, and when to announce the increases: 
either this summer when heating prices are not as sensitive 
an issue, but which would come a few months before the 
October 22 presidential election; or in late fall after the 
election, but when the weather is cold and consumers are 
already burdened with heating costs.  Ovcharov also stressed 
that Gazprom is pushing for a long-term agreement - possibly 
20 years.  In addition, Gazprom has indicated it would grant 
more favorable financial terms in return for a stake in 
Bulgargaz' pipeline, something Ovcharov has said Bulgaria 
will not agree to. 
 
4. (C) On the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector (TGI), 
Ovcharov offered that Bulgaria is interested in the project 
and would try to hook up the relatively short 70-75 KM 
distance from the Greek portion.  He said Bulgaria has not 
discussed this with Greece, but has talked with Turkey.  As 
for the origin of the gas, Ovcharov said the Kazakh PM told 
him that Russia and Iran are working together to block a 
Trans-Caspian pipeline, citing an old agreement that nothing 
can be built on the Caspian without the agreement of all 
parties.   Ovcharov has spoken publicly about the threat of 
Russian gas interests to Europe, and the need for European 
countries to be part of a common energy policy.  But he has 
also said recently that Bulgaria must take care of its own 
problems, which requires it to negotiate with Kazakhstan, 
Turkey, Egypt and Algeria for long-term solutions, as well as 
Gazprom immediately. 
 
B-A PIPELINE: CAT AND MOUSE WITH THE RUSSIANS 
 
5. (C) Ovcharov told us not to expect activity soon on the 
 
SOFIA 00001162  002 OF 003 
 
 
Burgas-Alexandropoulous (B-A) oil pipeline.  The Russians are 
analyzing the financial aspects of the project, preparing 
feasibility studies, and are again pushing Bulgaria and 
Greece for 90 percent Russian ownership, leaving 5 percent 
each for the host countries.  Bulgaria wants to step up and 
build the pipeline, Ovcharov told us, but not at all costs, 
and not for only a 5 percent share.  Bulgaria sees its 
interests as strategic, and calculates that its participation 
in the pipeline could give a bit more leverage in gas and 
nuclear plant talks. 
 
6. (C) Ovcharov also said that Bulgaria and Greece will float 
the idea of constructing the pipeline without Russian 
participation.  Ovcharov recognizes that it will be nearly 
impossible to get financial backing without the promise of a 
Russian supply, but the GOB feels it is worth exploring - 
particularly in order to push Russia back off its recent grab 
for 90% control of B-A.  Bulgaria also holds out some hope 
that Chevron might be interested in the project.  On Caspian 
Pipeline Company (CPC), Ovcharov told us he met recently with 
the Russian Minister of Energy who said Russian interest in 
CPC is to expand output, not to change the ownership model. 
 
BELENE NUCLEAR PLANT: RUSSIAN OFFER IS LEADING 
 
7. (C) The GOB closed the Belene bid review process on July 
22.  Even before seeing the final recommendations from the 
National Electric Company, which, along with U.S. company 
Parsons Engineering is coordinating the bid process, Ovcharov 
requested the two bidders provide better prices and faster 
timetables.  Ovcharov is particularly interested in new 
prices from the Russian bidder, Atomstroyexport, and their 
sub-contractor for the Instrumentation and Control (I and C), 
Framatom, whose numbers are more than twice Westinghouse's 
offer for the I and C portion of the Skoda bid.  Ovcharov is 
confident he will get acceptable prices, but has threatened 
to reconsider the viability of the project if not.  When 
Ambassador Beyrle described the strengths of the Westinghouse 
proposal, along with its successful experience on the 
Kozloduy nuclear plants here, Ovcharov agreed, but mentioned 
"Framaton/Arveal and the EU" with a resigned shrug.  Ovcharov 
also stressed that Bulgaria was not negotiating with Gazprom 
on the Belene deal. 
 
8. (C) Ovcharov has pointed to the technical superiority of 
the Atomstroyexport proposal, calling it "cutting edge," such 
as the one Russia is building in China.  He described the 
Czech offer as fine, but asked why Bulgaria should settle for 
20-year old technology.  It is unclear, however, whether the 
GOB would allow a "mix-and-match" by switching Westinghouse 
in as the I and C portion of the plant.  The real risk in 
this situation is if Gazprom bank or another Russian energy 
player were to become a major financial stakeholder in Belene 
- something that the GOB currently says will not happen.  The 
GOB hopes to begin final negotiations with the winning bidder 
in early September. 
 
THE HIDDEN INTERESTS 
 
9. (C) Gas supplies, the B-A pipeline and construction of 
Belene are intertwined.  Russian interests, most pointing 
back to Gazprom, are involved in the three major energy 
projects, and Gazprom has also expressed a desire to obtain 
the Bulgargaz distribution grid if that were to be 
privatized.  Ovcharov has denied that there is any linkage 
between the projects, but most observers find that hard to 
believe.  In addition, rumors are rampant that organized 
crime figures, Bulgarian and Russian, are involved with 
high-level GOB officials in bid-rigging, shakedowns and other 
illegal behavior in the energy sector (septel to follow.) 
Ovcharov, who studied in Moscow and has spent much of his 
professional career working with Russian energy interests, 
took pains to describe to us measures he is taking to limit 
the activities of such players.  His protestations are at 
least in part self-serving given the murky world behind the 
closed doors of a non-transparent negotiation process. 
 
COMMENT 
 
10. (C) While Bulgaria is a small player in Europe's energy 
market, its role as a possible hub or transit country for 
 
SOFIA 00001162  003 OF 003 
 
 
Eastern gas and oil is potentially large.  The increasing 
hunger of Gazprom and other Russian interests to play a 
larger role in almost all aspects of the Bulgarian market 
makes it very difficult for Bulgaria to isolate the Russian 
pieces in this Rubik's Cube. 
 
11. (C) We regularly stress to the President, Prime Minster 
and Minister of Energy the need for Bulgaria to diversify 
energy sources away from Russia.  They agree, but are at 
pains to figure out how.  Without a coordinated and serious 
European effort to address what appears to be a comprehensive 
strategy of Russia and/or Gazprom to reassert its interest in 
the region, small countries such as Bulgaria may never be 
able to escape the Russian energy orbit.  We strongly 
recommend a September visit by DAS Bryza to offer our 
strategic vision and energy outlook to help stiffen 
Bulgaria's resolve in the face of unrelenting Russian 
pressure. 
KARAGIANNIS