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FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4178
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RUEHLJ/AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 0047
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0106
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 0229
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001852 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR (DICARLO), S/WCI, EUR/SCE; NSC FOR BRAUN; 
USNIC FOR WEBER; OSD FOR FLORY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2011 
TAGS: KAWC KJUS PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - OPERATION STORM STIRS UP A TEMPEST 
 
Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin.  Reason 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The airing of two videos allegedly 
documenting war crimes committed against Serbs during 
Operation Storm in 1995 has set off a political firestorm in 
Bosnia.  The intensity of the political firestorm has been 
fueled in part by Serb accusations against a prominent 
Bosniak war hero, General Atif Dudakovic.  According to the 
State Prosecutor's office neither video constitutes prima 
fascia evidence of war crime, but both are being 
investigated.  Sarajevo prosecutors are cooperating with 
their counterparts in Zagreb and Belgrade with the 
investigations.  In a meeting with us, the State Prosecutor's 
office stressed that it would take time to build solid 
criminal cases sufficient to justify an indictment.  In the 
meantime, the PIC Ambassadors have issued a statement calling 
on politicians to cool down their rhetoric, which is 
inflaming an already tense pre-election environment.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
Operation Storm Becomes A Political Storm 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On August 11, we met with international lawyers from 
the State Prosecutor's office to discuss the political and 
media battle surrounding two videos that allegedly show war 
crimes committed against Serbs during Operation Storm, the 
1995 joint offensive by the Croatian Army and the Army of 
Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Army of BiH) designed to 
liberate Krajina as well as relieve Serb pressure on the 
Bihac pocket.  Footage from the first video, which initially 
aired in Belgrade on August 5, but was subsequently and 
widely picked up by Bosnian media outlets, shows a dead Serb 
solider, allegedly executed.  The second, aired later in the 
week, shows a popular Bosniak war hero, General Atif 
Dudakovic, waiving his arms and apparently ordering the 
burning of Serb villages. 
 
¶3. (C) Politicians began commenting on the videos 
immediately.  Serbs sought to equate these videos with the 
"Scorpion video" released earlier in the year, which showed 
Serb paramilitaries executing Bosniaks during the 1995 
Srebrenica massacre.  They also attacked the international 
community and Bosniaks for failing to prosecute war crimes 
committed against Serbs.  Bosniaks responded by accusing 
Serbs of seeking to blur the distinction between victims and 
aggressors and denying that the videos were evidence of war 
crimes in the first place. 
 
¶4. (C) The rhetoric really heated up after the Dudakovic 
video became public.  Republika Srpska (RS) Premier Dodik and 
RS President Cavic announced on August 10 that they planned 
to file a report with the BiH State Prosecutor, Croatian 
State Prosecutor and Serbian State Prosecutor accusing former 
Bosnian General of war crimes. (Note: Under BiH law any 
citizen may file a report of criminal activity with the State 
Prosecutor's office. End Note).  President Tihic, a Bosniak, 
accused Dodik and Cavic of using the case as a political 
weapon and attacked them for their selective approach to 
support for war crimes prosecution (i.e., their failure as RS 
leaders to ensure full RS cooperation in the hunt for Mladic 
and Karadzic). 
 
Video One - The Executed Serb 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office tells us that it has 
been investigating the alleged war crimes committed on the 
first video for more than two months, and that they are 
cooperating with Zagreb and Belgrade prosecutors.  Though 
media attention has focused on images that show the body of 
an allegedly executed Serb soldier, the State Prosecutor is 
looking into five episodes on the video, all related to 
Operation Storm.  These include (in shorthand): 
 
-- The alleged execution of a Serb soldier (o/a 15 September 
1995); 
-- The alleged execution of four Serb soldiers (o/a 5 August 
1995); 
-- The desecration of a Serb Orthodox Church (o/a 15 or 16 
August 1995); 
-- The interrogation of an old man, who may have been 
subsequently executed (o/a 13 or 14 August 1995); and, 
-- The "celebratory" dragging by a tractor of an already 
deceased old man or soldier (the timing of the episode is 
unclear). 
 
¶6. (C/NF) The episodes, not all of which have aired in the 
media, are part of a larger video production most likely 
compiled by Serbs to prove that they, too, were victims of 
war crimes.  According to the State Prosecutor's office, the 
Army of BiH or groups associated with it took the original 
footage, perhaps to promote the mujahadeen, who fought with 
the Army of BiH in Bihac.  The State Prosecutor's office 
notes that the version of the video in its possession 
contains Arabic script as well as Cyrillic added by the 
Serbs.  It also notes that the one identifiable figure in the 
video is Abdul al Harby Twafik (Tuwfik), a former mujahadeen 
who lived in Bihac until 2001, but has since returned to 
Saudi Arabia. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office told us that despite 
images suggesting crimes had been committed, it will be 
difficult to build successful war crimes cases based on the 
video alone.  Unlike the "Scorpion video", which showed 
clearly identifiable people committing a clearly identifiable 
crime, this video shows only the outcome of alleged criminal 
acts.  For example, the video shows the Serb soldiers dead, 
but not their actual executions and does not show who was 
present at the time.  Nor is the audio as clear as print 
reports have implied.  Much more time is required to identify 
suspects and gather evidence before any indictments are 
handed down, the State Prosecutor's office said. 
 
Video Two - General Dudakovic 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C/NF) The State Prosecutor's office believes that the 
prima fascia case against General Dudakovic is stronger.  The 
video, which the State Prosecutor's office only received on 
August 9, is not the clear evidence of a war crime that some 
politicians and media outlets claim, however.  A good defense 
lawyer could easily provide a credible explanation for 
Dudakovic's alleged order to burn Serb villages, the State 
Prosecutor's office explained.  For example, a defense 
attorney could claim that "burn" was slang for attack or 
shell villages where enemy troops were concentrated, and not 
a literal order to burn villages.  Prosecutors must determine 
some basic facts, such as what villages (if any) were burned, 
before bringing an indictment against Dudakovic, and this, 
the international prosecutors explained, would take time. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) The State Prosecutor's office is concerned that the 
political and media rhetoric about the Operation Storm videos 
is only the beginning of an ethnic publicity war over war 
crimes.  There are plenty of groups on all three sides of the 
ethnic divide who have war crimes claims, and the videos may 
encourage them to come forward.  Prosecutors also worry that 
the young, still inexperienced, State Court and Prosecutor's 
office may not be strong enough to withstand six more weeks 
along lines of the one that just past.  There is little doubt 
that the politicians are playing to their respective 
galleries with their comments on the videos, and that this is 
further poisoning an already unhealthy election year 
atmosphere.  Late today, the PIC Ambassadors released a 
statement urging politicians to cool it, but with electoral 
dynamic likely to drive political behavior for the next six 
weeks, this is likely a message that will bear repeating, 
assuming it is heard at all. 
MCELHANEY