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RR RUEHDE
DE RUEHYN #2466 2331024
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211024Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5119
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002466 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2011 
TAGS: PREL KDEM YE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE 
FREE AND FAIR, A BETTER MAN THAN I WOULD BE RUNNING" 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR THOMAS C. KRAJESKI, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND ( 
D). 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY:  Opposition presidential candidate Faisal 
bin Shamlan told Ambassador on August 19 that he considers 
corruption and poverty to be the most important issues for 
this campaign, but regretted that President Saleh refused to 
debate him publicly.  Asked if the elections would be largely 
free and fair, Shamlan responded that if that were going to 
be the case, "a much better man than I would be running." 
Shamlan said the opposition did not expect the Government to 
abide by election laws stipulating equal access to the media, 
but advised that "if we get even 10 percent of the time 
allotted to the ruling party, we'll be happy."  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (C)  In his first meeting with the Joint Meeting Party's 
(JMP) presidential candidate, Ambassador said he was pleased 
to meet with Shamlan and other political actors at any time, 
but would not become engaged in a debate about Yemen's 
internal issues.  Ambassador said he would readily and 
publicly discuss U.S.-Yemeni relations, but did not want the 
USG or the Embassy to become an election issue.  The USG's 
most constructive contributions to the election are the local 
observers that will be trained by the U.S.-funded National 
Democratic Institute, who will be able to give the most 
accurate assessment of whether the voting was open and fair, 
not only for the presidential election, but for the local 
council polls as well. 
 
¶3. (C)  Asked for his assessment of the chances for a free 
and fair election, Shamlan said that if anyone expected the 
elections to be free and fair, "a much better man than I 
would be running."  In a truly honest election, Shamlan 
asserted, he would win 65 to 70 percent of the vote.  If the 
elections are "even 40 percent fair," then he would likely 
notwin, but the JMP could expect to win control of a 
majority of local councils, as ruling party officils have 
been warning could happen.  Shamlan downlayed the 
significance of the local councils, hoever, because they do 
not have independent sourcs of funding and the  politically 
appointed district governor's concurrence is needed for any 
counil decision to be enacted. 
 
¶4. (C)  Shamlan statd that corruption and the rising cost of 
living or average Yemenis would be the main issues for ths 
year's campaign, the first in which an actual challenger to 
the president is running.  Yemeni ciizens are very worried 
about the future, he said because proven oil reserves will 
only last anoter 6-7 years, and Yemen derives 70% of its 
govermental budget from oil.  "Nothing has been done to use 
oil money to create an effective non-oil econmy," he said, 
and yet the Government each year aks for supplemental 
spending authority from the arliament.  Since 2001, this 
extra spending has mounted to more than USD four billion, 
"and yet we still have two million unemployed."  Much of the 
money has been siphoned off through corruption, h said, "and 
while the President, Prime Minister,and Speaker of 
Parliament all talk about fightin corruption, no one has 
ever been brought to tria." 
 
¶5. (C)  Given the fact that 75 percent of Yeen's population 
is scattered in rural villages, ass media will be crucial to 
communicating his mssage to the people, Shamlan emphasized. 
Accordig to Shamlan, about half of Yemenis have access to 
non-Yemeni stations such as al-Jazeera, al-Hurra,al-Arabiya, 
and al-Mustaqila, while the other haf relies on the 
government-owned broadcast media.  Jazeera and Arabiya have 
so far been reluctant to interview him, he claimed, because 
the Government has insisted that the interviews be taped in a 
studio, not broadcast live -- something both organizations 
are reluctant to do.  Asked if he expected the Government to 
abide by the election law and the June agreement of 
principles between the JMP and the ruling party, which call 
for equal access to government-owned media, Shamlan 
responded, "Of course not."  He claimed that "even if we get 
10 percent of the time" allotted to the ruling party, he will 
be satisfied. 
 
¶6. (C)  COMMENT:  Shamlan is fighting an uphill battle and he 
knows it.  We believe that his estimation of his share of the 
vote in a clean election are seriously overblown, but not the 
belief that the JMP may sweep the local council elections -- 
a fear expressed even by ruling party members.  Shamlan is 
not a member of either of the major parties that comprise the 
JMP, so it is not surprising that he would have little 
interest in the local council elections, but post continues 
to view those elections as an equally important measure of 
democratic progress as fair and open presidential voting. 
Post will provide assessments of local council election 
preparations via septels. 
Krajeski