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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000993 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2016 
TAGS: PINR PREL PGOV PHUM EAID KPAO MR
SUBJECT: POLITICAL POWER IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS 
(C-AL6-01048) 
 
REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 979 
     ¶B. NOUAKCHOTT 842 
 
Classified By: Amb. Joseph LeBaron, Reasons 1.4(b)(d) 
 
-------------- 
(C) Key Points 
-------------- 
 
-- The political environment in Mauritania is constantly 
changing, with political parties and coalitions regularly 
forming and dissolving, and new presidential hopefuls 
declaring their candidacy every week. 
 
-- Little separates one party from the next.  However, a 
handful of parties and candidates have risen above the 
milieu, and, at present, appear to be political front-runners. 
 
------------ 
(C) Comments 
------------ 
 
-- The November municipal and legislative elections will 
almost certainly clarify those actors most likely to capture 
the presidency in March 2007. 
 
-- While opinions differ about the potential role of the 
Military Council in the elections (septel), there is no 
evidence to date that the council is backing any candidate or 
party. 
 
End Key Points and Comments. 
 
¶1. (C) The political environment in Mauritania is constantly 
changing, with political parties and coalitions regularly 
forming and dissolving, and new presidential hopefuls 
declaring their candidacy every week.  Few political actors 
have strong platforms, and little separates one party from 
the next (see ref A. for a summary of all recognized 
political parties and coalitions).  However, a handful of 
parties and candidates have risen above the milieu, and, at 
present, appear to be political front-runners.  The following 
text summarizes these key players and attempts to offer some 
insight into the presidential elections scheduled for March 
¶2007.  It will be necessary to adjust these observations as 
March draws closer, particularly following the November 
municipal and legislative elections which will almost 
certainly clarify those actors most likely to capture the 
presidency. 
 
------------------- 
THE MAJOR COALITION 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) The recently formed "Coalition of Forces for 
Democratic Change (CFDC)," has quickly established itself as 
the leading political party coalition, bringing together four 
of the seven most influential parties in Mauritania.  The 
coalition also includes the largest following of Islamists 
(including Jemil Ould Mansour and Moktar Mohamed Moussa), the 
PMUC (the political party of the Knights of Change which led 
several unsuccessful coups against former president Taya), 
and FLAM Renovation (a breakaway wing of the exiled 
Afro-Mauritanian opposition group FLAM). 
 
¶3. (C) The CFDC has committed to working collectively to 
prevent any candidates from the former regime from being 
elected.  Specifically, the group is concerned about the 
influence of the "Republican Party for Democracy and Revival 
(PRDR)" and the "Rally for Democracy and Unity (RDU)," which 
together controlled the government under Taya. 
 
¶4. (C) However, the CFDC's future is far from certain, as 
many parties within the coalition have strong presidential 
ambitions, and some parties (such as the "Mauritanian Party 
for Union and Change (PMUC)") are struggling with internal 
dissent. 
 
------------------------------ 
THE POLITICAL PARTIES TO WATCH 
------------------------------ 
 
NOUAKCHOTT 00000993  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) The former power brokers PRDR and RDU remain among the 
strongest, wealthiest, and best organized political parties 
in Mauritania.  The two are reportedly in discussions to form 
a coalition, however, many believe such an arrangement would 
be made in secret, with the two parties privately supporting 
the same "independent" presidential candidate.  The need for 
secrecy arises from the public's perception that these two 
parties (particularly PRDR) were, and perhaps still are, 
closely linked to former president Taya.  If either group ran 
a presidential candidate, the public could label them a 
carryover from the Taya era, and the CFDC would also 
certainly campaign against them.  The public's tolerance for 
PRDR/RDU candidates will likely be tested in the coming 
November elections. 
 
¶6. (C) The four most influential CFDC members include 
"Gathering of Democratic Forces (RFD)," "Union for Force and 
Progress (UFP)," "Popular Progressive Alliance (APP)," and 
the "Mauritanian Party for Union and Change (PMUC)."  PMUC 
co-founder Mohamed Ould Cheikhna is currently the only 
individual among the four parties to have declared his 
candidacy for the presidency, however, many others are 
expected to follow suite (including PMUC president Saleh Ould 
Hanena). 
 
¶7. (C) The remaining party of influence is the "Union for 
Democracy and Progress (UDP)" headed by Naha Mint Mouknass, 
the only female political party president.  UDP is expected 
to capture several Parliamentary seats, but not run a 
presidential candidate (Mouknass is herself too young to run 
for the presidency). 
 
--------------------------- 
THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) RFD's President Ahmed Ould Daddah (the brother of 
Mauritania's first post-independence President) is the name 
most often offered when discussing who will be the next 
president.  Daddah received 6.85 percent of the vote in the 
2003 presidential elections, and while he has not publicly 
announced his candidacy, he has privately said that he will 
run.  His party has attracted many new high-profile members 
since the coup, including close friends and relatives of 
Colonel Fal. 
 
¶9. (C) Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi was the first independent 
candidate to announce he was running for the presidency. 
Abdallahi is seen by many as a viable alternative to Daddah, 
as both men are respected former ministers with economic 
backgrounds who come from important families and tribes. 
Abdallahi is also married to a cousin of Colonel Fal and 
Colonel Aziz.  Some observers believe that PRDR and RDU will 
secretly support Abdallahi's bid for president. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶10. (C) Ahmed Ould Abdallah, the Special Representative of 
the UN Secretary General for West Africa, has also been 
identified as a powerful presidential candidate, though he is 
reportedly reluctant to run.  Abdallah, who has spent most of 
his professional life with the UN, is seen as honest and 
articulate, but also as an outsider. 
 
¶11. (C) Dehane Ould Ahmed Mahmoud, a retired colonel and 
former Minister of Foreign Affairs, is seen as a viable 
presidential candidate.  With his military background and 
friendship to Colonel Fall, Mahmoud is seen as an acceptable 
candidate for the Military Council (and viewed as a potential 
favorite by those who believe the Military Council will 
attempt to sway the presidential outcome). 
 
¶12. (C) Other names which have been offered for the 
presidency include APP president Messaoud Ould Boulkheir and 
PMUC president Saleh Ould Hanena.  However, Boulkheir would 
face significant resistance from Mauritanians unwilling to 
support a Black Moor president; while Hanena, a former coup 
leader, would be highly controversial (and likely 
disagreeable to the existing power base, some of whom he 
tried to unseat with his coup attempts). 
Koutsis