VZCZCXRO0385
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #0920/01 2421032
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301032Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2844
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUFGCIN/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NIAMEY 000920 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC, SIPDIS 
 
ACCRA FOR USAID 
DAKAR FOR USAID 
AF/W FOR BACHMANN 
INR FOR BEGOSIAN 
PRM FOR POLLACK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR SOCI SENV NG
 
SUBJECT: NIGER DRAFT POPULATION POLICY DECLARATION 
 
REF: NIAMEY 574 
 
¶1. SUMMARY. THE MINISTRY OF POPULATION AND SOCIAL ACTION RELEASED 
SUBJECT DECLARATION IN JULY 2006. EMBASSY BELIEVES IT OF SOME 
SIGNIFICANCE THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF NIGER (GON) RELEASED SUCH A 
DECLARATION, PARTICULARLY IN VIEW OF THE STRONG OPPOSITION SHOWN IN 
THE PAST BY SOME CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC GROUPS TO SOME OF THE ISSUES 
TOUCHED UPON IN THE DOCUMENT.  SUBJECTS INCLUDE: FAMILY PLANNING, 
FAMILY LAW, AND THE USE OF MODERN CONTRACEPTIVES. OVERALL, THIS 
DOCUMENT REFLECTS GON CONCERN ABOUT THE HARSH DEVELOPMENT 
CONSEQUENCES OF ITS HIGH ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE (THE WORLD'S 
HIGHEST AT 3.3%) AND ITS POSSIBLE WILLINGNESS TO BEGIN  IN EARNEST 
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ACTIVITIES NEEDED TO HELP SLOW THIS GROWTH 
RATE. THE FOLLOWING HIGHLIGHTS  THE DAUNTING DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES 
FACED BY NIGER.  END SUMMARY 
 
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DIRE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORLD'S HIGHEST FERTILITY RATE 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2.  THE DECLARATION CLEARLY NOTES THAT NIGER'S HIGH POPULATION 
GROWTH RATE STEMS FROM THE HIGH FERTILITY RATE OF WOMEN OF 
REPRODUCTIVE AGE.  CURRENTLY, THIS RATE IS ESTIMATED AT 7.2 CHILDREN 
PER WOMAN (HIGHEST FERTILITY RATE IN THE WORLD.) THE FACTORS THAT 
CONTRIBUTE TO SUCH A HIGH RATE LEND THEMSELVES TO THE CONSISTENT 
RANKING OF NIGER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE U.N.'S HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 
FOR MORE THAN A DECADE. 
 
¶3.  THE PAPER NOTES THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES SUCH A FAST POPULATION 
GROWTH RATE (THE WORLD'S FASTEST) HAS ON NIGER'S FRAGILE 
ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT, AND ITS WEAK HEALTH AND EDUCATION 
INFRASTRUCTURES.  NIGER'S NATIONAL POPULATION HAS GROWN FROM 3 
MILLION IN 1960 TO 11.1 MILLION IN 2001, TO NEARLY 12.5 MILLION 
TODAY.  AT THE SAME TIME, MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE CULTIVATABLE LAND 
HAS BEEN DEGRADED BY OVER-CULTIVATION, DESERT ENCROACHMENT AND 
INCREASED ARIDITY, AND PASTORAL LANDS HAVE BEEN OVERGRAZED.  ALL 
THIS ADDS TREMENDOUSLY TO THE NUMBER OF CONFLICTS BETWEEN 
AGRICULTURALISTS AND PASTORALISTS, AS WELL AS TO OTHER KINDS OF 
CONFLICT AND CRIME. 
 
¶4.  MORE TROUBLING IS THE PROJECTION THAT THE NATIONAL POPULATION 
WILL REACH 17 MILLION IN 2015; THAT IS NEARLY 5 MILLION MORE PEOPLE 
IN A BRIEF NINE YEARS. THIS KEY DEMOGRAPHIC FACT NEEDS TO BE WELL 
NOTED BY DEVELOPMENT PLANNERS, FOOD SECURITY SPECIALISTS, ETC. AT 
THE CURRENT RATE, NIGER'S POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO REACH 56 
MILLION PEOPLE IN 2050, AND OVER HALF OF THESE PEOPLE WILL LIVE IN 
URBAN AREAS AND OVER 50 PERCENT WILL BE LESS THAN 15 YEARS OLD. SUCH 
SOBERING POPULATION NUMBERS ARE THE CAUSE FOR GREAT CONCERN AND 
LEAVE NO DOUBT THAT SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE IN THE YEARS TO 
COME. 
 
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FAST GROWING POPULATION AND DWINDLING RESOURCE BASE SPELLS TROUBLE 
FOR NIGER'S DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.  THESE RUDE FACTS HAVE ALL CONTRIBUTED FOR YEARS TO A CONSISTENT 
DOWNWARD TREND IN PER CAPITA FOOD PRODUCTION AND THE REDUCTION OF 
COPING MECHANISM OPTIONS DURING TIMES OF STRESS, E.G., DURING 
PERIODS OF RECURRENT DROUGHT.  IN SUM, IF A DROUGHT STRIKES MANY 
MORE PEOPLE THAN BEFORE ARE UNABLE TO COPE AND, EVEN WITHOUT 
DROUGHT, IT IS RARE FOR ANY FAMILY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD TO CARRY 
IT THROUGH TO THE NEXT ANNUAL HARVEST.  IN A GOOD RAINFALL YEAR, 
EVEN THE BETTER OFF FAMILIES PRODUCE ONLY ENOUGH FOOD FOR THREE TO 
FIVE MONTHS AND THIS FALLS FAR SHORT OF THE 10 TO 12 MONTHS NEEDED. 
GONE ARE THE DAYS OF FULL HOUSEHOLD GRANARIES THAT MADE FAMILIES IN 
NIGER SECURE AND HAPPY. 
 
¶6.  THE MOST VULNERABLE --- CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PREGNANT AND 
LACTATING MOTHERS --- ARE THE WORST HIT. 
LITTLE WONDER THAT NIGER'S CHILDREN SUFFER GREATLY FROM WHAT HAS 
INCREASINGLY BECOME A PERMANENT MALNUTRITION CRISIS, WITH GLOBAL 
ACUTE MALNUTRITION RATES ROUTINELY REPORTED FOR MANY YEARS AT 
EMERGENCY LEVELS.  REVERSING THIS CRISIS AND THE WORSENING 
STRUCTURAL FOOD DEFICIT TREND THAT CONFRONT NIGER WILL TAKE MUCH 
COMMITMENT AND THE JUDICIOUS USE OF ASSISTANCE RESOURCES FOR MANY 
YEARS TO COME BY THE GON AND DONORS. A BETTER WAY FORWARD MUST BE 
FOUND IF GREATER SUFFERING IS TO BE AVOIDED. 
 
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WORRISOME STATISTICS AND THE WORST YET TO COME 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶7.  THE DECLARATION IS FULL OF USEFUL, BUT TROUBLING STATISTICS SUCH 
AS THE FOLLOWING: 
 
NIAMEY 00000920  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
- 62% OF WOMEN AGED 15 TO 19 ARE MARRIED 
- THE MEDIAN AGE OF MARRIAGE IS 15 (THE GON WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS 
GO UP TO 19 BY 2015) 
- THE MODERN CONTRACEPTIVE RATE IS 8% (GON AIMS TO INCREASE THIS TO 
18% BY 2015) 
- ONLY 18% OF BIRTHS ARE IN A HEALTH FACILITY 
- 50% OF THE POPULATION LIVES MORE THAN 5 KMS FROM A HEALTH 
FACILITY 
- 57% OF THE POPULATION DOES NOT HAVE ACCESS TO POTABLE WATER 
- 48% OF CHILDREN BETWEEN THE AGES OF 7 AND 12 ARE NOT IN SCHOOL 
- 244 OUT OF EVERY 1,000 CHILDREN BORN DIE BEFORE THEIR 1ST BIRTHDAY 
(THAT MEANS ABOUT 1 OUT OF EVERY 4 CHILDREN BORN DIES - THE GON 
WANTS TO REDUCE THIS RATE TO 153 PER 1,000 BY 2015) 
 
¶8.  BESIDES THE VARIOUS GON OBJECTIVES NOTED ABOVE, THE GON AIMS TO 
REDUCE THE OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE FROM 3.3% TO 2.5% 
BY 2015, AND DOING THIS WILL REQUIRE ACHIEVING ITS OTHER OBJECTIVE 
OF REDUCING THE FERTILITY RATE FROM 7.2 TO 5.6.  AT THE SAME TIME, 
THE GON IS AIMING TO HAVE ALL CHILDREN OF SCHOOL AGE IN PRIMARY 
SCHOOL BY 2015, AS WELL AS ALL CHILDREN UNDER-FIVE FULLY VACCINATED. 
 THE DECLARATION ALSO SUPPORTS EXCLUSIVE BREAST FEEDING FOR THE 
FIRST SIX MONTHS. THESE ARE INDEED HUGE AMBITIONS AND THE CLOCK IS 
TICKING. 
 
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NOT ENOUGH GOOD LAND AND A FEW VIABLE ALTERNATIVES 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶9.  THE PAPER ASSERTS THAT THE AVERAGE CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE LAND 
IN NIGER IS 15 PEOPLE PER SQUARE KILOMETER; THIS COMPARES WITH AN 
ACTUAL AVERAGE IN MANY AREAS OF NIGER OF 50 PEOPLE PER SQUARE 
KILOMETER. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE ARE MORE DENSELY POPULATED AREAS 
IN NIGER (E.G., THE AREAS SOUTH OF ZINDER) WHERE THE POPULATION 
DENSITY IS NEAR OR OVER 100 PEOPLE PER SQUARE KILOMETER. 
 
¶10.  THE PAPER NOTES THE HEAVY IMPACT OF THIS HIGHER POPULATION 
DENSITY ON LAND USE. SHRINKING FAMILY FARM SIZES, OVER-CULTIVATED 
SOILS, WITH FEW ARE NO SOIL-FERTILITY RAISING INPUTS, ARE ATTRIBUTED 
TO THE FAST-GROWING POPULATION. THESE KEY FACTORS ALL CONTRIBUTE TO 
A TREND OF DOWNWARD FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA. THE PAPER STATES 
THAT TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES HAVE REACHED 
THEIR LIMITS AND CAN NO LONGER ASSURE THE FOOD SECURITY OF NIGER'S 
POPULATION. THIS RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT NIGER'S VIABLE 
DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS ARE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
VICIOUS CYCLE OF ANEMIC MOTHERS AND LOW BIRTH WEIGHTS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶11. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THIS DRAFT DECLARATION, IT MAKES 
SENSE TO ADD TO THE INFORMATION ALREADY CITED THE FACT THAT A HIGH 
PERCENTAGE OF BABIES ARE BORN WITH A LOW BIRTH WEIGHT (LESS THAN 2.5 
KGS. THIS FACT CONTRIBUTES HEAVILY TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF INFANT 
MORTALITY WITNESSED IN NIGER AND, FOR THOSE INFANTS WHO SURVIVE, TO 
A HIGH LEVEL OF WASTING AND STUNTING (40% OF NIGER'S CHILDREN ARE 
STUNTED.)  THIS LOW BIRTH WEIGHT FACTOR IS OF KEY IMPORTANCE WHEN 
EVALUATING NIGER'S LONG-STANDING CHRONIC CHILD MALNUTRITION CRISIS. 
 
 
¶12.  LOW BIRTH WEIGHTS ARE DUE TO UNDER-NOURISHED, ANEMIC MOTHERS, 
AND TO THE MARRIAGE OF WOMEN AT A YOUNG AGE. ANOTHER TERRIBLE 
CONSEQUENCE OF A PREPONDERANCE OF TEEN-AGE MARRIAGES IS A RECORD 
HIGH NUMBER OF MOTHERS SUFFERING FROM OBSTETRIC FISTULA DURING THE 
BIRTH OF THEIR CHILD.  ANOTHER TELLING SIGN OF THE OVERALL ALARMING 
SCENARIO FOR NIGER IS ITS  POSSESSION OF THE WORLD'S HIGHEST 
MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE.  COMPARING NIGER'S HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 
STATISTICS WITH OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, INCLUDING OTHER AFRICAN 
ONES, NIGER LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE WORST PLACES IN THE WORLD TO BE A 
CHILD OR A WOMAN. 
 
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ACTION LONG OVERDUE BUT ISLAMISTS RESISTING CHANGE 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶13.  COMMENT.  THERE IS MORE IN THE POPULATION DOCUMENT, BUT THE 
ABOVE SHOULD SUFFICE AS A REMINDER OF THE SEVERITY OF NIGER'S 
DEVELOPMENT PREDICAMENT AND OF ALL THE THINGS THE GON WILL NEED TO 
DO FROM NOW UNTIL 2015 TO SLOW DOWN NIGER'S FAST POPULATION GROWTH. 
MUCH OF WHAT IS INCLUDED IN THE GON POPULATION DOCUMENT HAS BEEN 
SAID MANY TIMES IN THE PAST BUT, MAYBE THIS TIME THE INCREASED 
GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION WILL MAKE THINGS HAPPEN. 
 
HOPEFULLY, NIGER WILL UNDERTAKE MEASURES THAT MOST AFRICAN 
COUNTRIES, INCLUDING PREDOMINATELY MUSLIM ONES, HAVE ALREADY BEGUN 
 
NIAMEY 00000920  003 OF 003 
 
 
TO APPLY FOR SOME TIME.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG OPPOSITION OF 
CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC GROUPS THAT KEPT THE GON FROM ADOPTING THE 
FAMILY CODE (CODE DE FAMILLE) FOR OVER 20 YEARS AND, MORE RECENTLY, 
FROM ADOPTING THE AFRICAN UNION'S PROTOCOL ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS 
(REFTEL), IT IS REMARKABLE THAT THIS DECLARATION MAKES REFERENCE TO 
ACTING ON THE VERY SAME THINGS THE CODE AND PROTOCOL ESPOUSE (E.G., 
RAISE THE LEGAL MARRIAGE AGE FOR WOMEN TO 19). 
 
¶14.  IF THIS DRAFT DECLARATION OBTAINS FINAL APPROVAL ROUND, WE 
EXPECT STRONG RESISTENCE FROM SOME ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS 
(NOTE: NIGER IS A SECULAR STATE AND 95 PERCENT OF ITS POPULATION IS 
MUSLIM.) KEY GENDER EQUITY ISSUES AND WOMEN'S RIGHTS WILL BE THE 
CENTER OF THE DEBATE.  IT WILL BE HARD FOR NIGER TO ADVANCE AS LONG 
AS THE GENERAL STATUS OF WOMEN REMAINS SO LOW, AND THE WOMEN'S 
LITERACY RATE OF ONLY EIGHT PERCENT DQS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE. 
 
 
¶15.  THE GON POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, WHICH PLACES EMPHASIS ON 
IMPROVING SCHOLARITY, LITERACY, HEALTH CARE ACCESSIBILITY, FOOD 
SECURITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. 
 HOWEVER, THE GON'S ABILITY TO ADDRESS THE COUNTRY'S HIGH POPULATION 
GROWTH WILL AFFECT ITS CAPACITY TO IMPLEMENT SUCCESSFULLY THE 
STRATEGY IT HOPES WILL REDUCE POVERTY IN NIGER AND HELP THE GON MEET 
THE UNITED NATIONS 2015 MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS. END COMMENT. 
 
ALLEN