VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #1760/01 2262231
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 142231Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7218
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: MONTEALEGRE ALLIES CONFIDENT OF VICTORY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Senior advisor to ALN presidential candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre, Edmundo Leal and Conservative Party (PC) 
president Azalia Aviles recently expressed confidence that 
Montealegre will win the November 5 national election. 
Briefly interrupted to defend himself before the National 
Assembly on CENIs accusations (septel), Montealegre is on the 
campaign trail, which will conclude in the small town of 
Sebaco in order to emphasize that the rural areas are 
important to the ALN agenda.  Leal confirmed that the ALN is 
waiting for PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo to defect, 
and the ALN is holding out the first deputy position as a 
carrot.  Aviles explained the PC's process of growth and 
modernization and elaborated on the ALN's geographical 
strengths and weaknesses.  She noted that she has drawn the 
Pellas and Chamorro families back to the PC, although Leal 
complained that Carlos Pellas has not given significant funds 
to the ALN, as promised.  END SUMMARY 
 
HILLS AND VALLEYS ON THE ALN CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Poloff and pol intern met with senior Montealegre 
advisor Edmundo Leal on August 8 to discuss the ALN's 
campaign strategy.  Wearing jeans and a polo shirt, Leal was 
very relaxed as he spoke, bouncing casually from topic to 
topic.  He discussed the ALN's recent campaign trips to 
northern and southern departments.  The ALN plans to close 
its campaign in the small town of Sebaco (Matagalpa), in 
order to send a message that the rural areas are important to 
the ALN agenda.  Montealegre and others attended a three-hour 
long worship service in an effort to secure the evangelical 
vote, which tends to be anti-FSLN.   Montealegre was forced 
to divert his campaign plans on August 7 in order to appear 
before the National Assembly, testifying in his own defense 
on CENIs corruption charges.  Leal expressed minimal concern 
about this issue both because he believes that Montealegre is 
completely innocent and because the general population is 
widely unconcerned with/does not understand the issue. 
 
¶3. (C) Leal was enthusiastic about the recently released 
polls, showing Montealegre only slightly behind the 
front-runner, FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega.  He believes that 
Ortega has reached his peak and will not be able to 
legitimately gain any more votes.  He believes that Rizo will 
decline to 9 percent, from his current 12-15 percent and that 
more MRS votes will come to the ALN.  He remains concerned 
about campaign finance, explaining that a total of USD $12 
million is needed for the campaign.  Leal declined to reveal 
how much money has been raised and only said that they are 
still short. Poloff advised him to continue looking into 
expatriate Nicaraguans living in the United States for 
further donations.  Leal commented that the Coen family 
recently pledged $1 million for the campaign, while Carlos 
Pellas has only given about $100,000, despite an earlier 
pledge to fully support Montealegre. 
 
¶4. (C)  The campaign will use weekly publications to focus on 
nine issues, including the youth, alternative energy, single 
mothers, and education.  Leal was very excited about 
alternative energy, including ethanol, biodiesel, and 
hydroelectric power, noting that during the Somoza years, 
Nicaragua exported energy and they are now forced to import. 
The same day Leal met with us, the ALN added alternative 
energy, specifically ethanol production and use to their 
proposed government plan.  According to Leal, the FSLN has 
legislative control over the Water Law and poorly manages the 
production of hydroelectric power, which the ALN is intent on 
addressing. 
 
TAKING THE TEMPERATURE OF THE ALIANZA 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (C) When asked about the health of the alliance between 
the various parties within the ALN, Leal seemed relatively 
unconcerned.  While the members from the Conservative Party 
(PC) "put on a red hat and keep on their green shirts" the 
alliance is functionally intact.  He did express frustration 
that all of the members of the alliance want the ALN central 
leadership to give them what they need, even t-shirts, 
without contributing equally. We advised Leal to give more 
credit and face time to the youth members who are working 
diligently but sometimes feel ignored.  The OAS recently 
reported that the ALN fiscales covered the largest number of 
centers during the Supreme Electoral Council's June 
verification process, a fact which the campaign should 
publicize. 
 
POLITICAL GOSSIP/ KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (C) Leal confirmed that, as we get closer to the election 
and the PLC numbers continue to (hopefully) decline, PLC 
presidential candidate Jose Rizo is welcome to join the ALN 
ticket as the first deputy candidate for the National 
Assembly.  This is the best position they can offer him 
because the current VP Candidate has worked very hard and 
been a strong asset.  Rizo has been made aware of this offer 
but has so far declined.  Leal was equally clear that the ALN 
does not trust PLC VP candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado and 
will not welcome him to the party.  He was enthused about an 
open and amicable meeting with Edmundo Jarquin of the MRS. 
Before previous MRS presidential candidate Herty Lewites' 
death in early July, the two parties had an agreement to work 
together on various issues.  Jarquin is aware of this 
arrangement and fully intends to honor its terms.  Leal 
described Jarquin as "too honest" and related that he 
admitted that he did not know Nicaragua because he had been 
gone and that without Lewites, who secured funding, they face 
serious financial difficulties. 
 
AVILES: ALN IS ON TRACK 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (C) During an August 9 meeting with Ambassador and poloff, 
Conservative Party president Azalia Aviles seconded Leal's 
comments that ALN members are working more effectively.  She 
stated that the PC has undertaken a "process of 
modernization" since 2002, with the help of IRI, El 
Salvador's ARENA party, and the Conservative Party of Norway. 
 Aviles noted that the PC has registered 3,500 new members in 
the last two months and estimated that the party could garner 
14 percent of the vote nationwide, independent of the ALN 
(though she admitted that many of these voters are simply 
tired of the Liberals and Sandinistas rather than committed 
to the Conservative ideology per se).  She also commented 
that she has brought the Pellas and Chamorro families back 
into the Conservative fold. 
 
¶8. (C) Aviles gave an assessment of the ALN's strength, 
claiming that the Alliance is strong in Rivas, Granada, and 
Chinandega departments, and that Montealegre has achieved 
much greater penetration in rural areas.  She conceded that 
the PLC is the principal force in Matagalpa (the second 
largest department), and the ALN must "work harder" to wrest 
more votes from the Sandinistas in Managua. 
 
¶9. (C) Aviles agreed with the Ambassador that PLC leader 
Arnoldo Aleman is defeating Rizo in the struggle for control 
over that party.  She commented that PLC vice presidential 
candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado is using the CENIs case to 
bash Montealegre on the campaign trail and weaken the ALN 
candidate before initiating negotiations to unite the Liberal 
campaigns.  She noted, however, that this strategy could 
backfire on the PLC since the case is so obviously 
politically motivated.  Aviles has also heard reports that 
Alvarado is privately criticizing Rizo and campaign manager 
Enrique Quinonez for running a lackluster campaign and 
"failing to attract people" to the PLC. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶10. (C) With the help of consultants (septel) and constant 
urging from emboffs, the ALN seems to be building a more 
effective and united organization.  The Alliance must 
establish itself as the dominant Liberal force in order to 
convince PLC members to break with Aleman and unite with the 
ALN to defeat the Sandinistas. 
TRIVELLI