VZCZCXRO0115
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1183/01 2420526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300526Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3097
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambia Pre-election Roundup 
 
Ref: Lusaka 1101; and previous 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the lead-up to the September 28 general 
elections, Zambia's presidential and parliamentary candidates are 
working hard to get their messages to voters.  Although there is 
widespread criticism that the election campaigns are not 
issue-based, in campaign speeches and interviews with the media the 
three leading presidential candidates (ruling Movement for 
Multiparty Democracy's President Levy Mwanawasa, Patriotic Front 
president Michael Sata and United Democratic Alliance president 
Hakainde Hichilema) have established distinct political platforms. 
Mwanawasa promises to continue with the policies of his first term, 
emphasizing in his campaign speeches the need for good governance 
and economic growth.  Sata is running on pledges to lower taxes, 
increase employment, and improve conditions for workers.  Hichilema 
stresses his corporate background and says that he will take a 
business approach to development.  While conveying generally 
positive messages, the candidates have also attacked each other 
personally in the media.  In addition, the MMD asked the Electoral 
Commission of Zambia (ECZ) to disqualify Sata from the campaign, 
alleging electoral violations.  The ECZ has so far resisted pressure 
from the MMD, saying that it will deal with the complaints according 
to its own procedures.  End summary. 
 
MMD: President Mwanawasa Promises Continued Growth 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (U) Using the campaign slogan "For Growth and Empowerment," 
President Mwanawasa and the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) 
are highlighting the successes of its "New Deal" government over the 
last five years, arguing that his administration promoted good 
governance by attacking corruption, created jobs by attracting 
investment, and improved agricultural production by providing 
fertilizer and other support to farmers. 
 
¶3. (U) The President puts particular emphasis on economic 
achievements.  He reminds voters that it was his administration that 
brought Zambia to the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) 
completion point, allowing the cancellation of more than 90 percent 
of the country's USD 7.2 billion debt.  The President also 
highlights the record copper production of the mines privatized 
during his tenure, which, boosted by high copper prices has resulted 
in a stronger economy.  Other economic bright spots trumpeted by the 
MMD include the appreciation of the kwacha, lower costs of living, 
and single digit inflation for the first time in nearly thirty 
years.  The President recently presided over the opening of new 
copper mines at Kansanshi, and more recently, Lumwana, in North 
Western Province, which he described as "a new Copperbelt." 
 
¶4. (U) Mwanawasa also promises voters that, during a second term, 
his government will continue its program to improve Zambia's 
infrastructure, particularly schools, health institutions, and the 
road network.  He regularly notes that his government has recently 
obligated money for these purposes.  For instance, in connection 
with the opening of Lumwana and Kansanshi Mines, the government 
committed to a USD 46 million road project in North Western 
Province, which is already underway.  In addition, major road 
construction projects are underway in Eastern and Northern Province. 
 In the agricultural sector, Mwanawasa highlights 
government-sponsored farming projects in Northern and Western 
Provinces where farmers have been offered incentives, including 
fertilizers at half the normal retail price, to boost agricultural 
production. 
 
PF: Michael Sata Vows to Cut Taxes, Improve Services 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Michael Sata, the 64-year-old leader of the Patriotic Front 
(PF), is running a populist campaign, pledging to voters that he 
will lower taxes, improve health care, create jobs for Zambians, and 
offer pensions for all retirees.  Sata's rhetoric resonates with 
lower-paid and low-skilled workers, who believe that a Sata 
administration will favor labor by increasing salaries and generally 
improving conditions of service.  Reinforcing this belief, Sata 
promises miners on the Copperbelt that they will be exempt from 
paying for water and electricity, as was the case during the days of 
the government-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM).  Sata 
tells workers that the mining companies are making huge profits and 
should pay for workers' utilities. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Sata also promises to improve health care and housing.  A 
former Minister of Health in the Chiluba era, Sata is remembered by 
many Zambians for transforming the University Teaching Hospital into 
a clean and efficient health provider.  Drawing upon his ministerial 
experience, Sata pledges to address issues that have plagued the 
Ministry of Health, including the provision of quality health 
services in hospitals, clinics and other health centers, and the 
establishment of attractive and competitive salaries and better 
conditions of service for doctors, nurses, and other health staff. 
With regard to housing, Sata has pledged to demolish the poor 
housing settlements commonly known as "shanty compounds" and replace 
 
LUSAKA 00001183  002 OF 003 
 
 
them with more dignified communities.  It is unclear where Sata 
plans to find the money to fund these projects. 
 
Sata on Foreign Investors 
------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Sata has recently gained notoriety -- and support from some 
quarters -- for his position on foreign investors and entrepreneurs, 
arguing that foreign investment should not come at the expense of 
forcing local Zambian entrepreneurs out of business.  In at least 
one campaign speech, Sata reportedly threatened to expel foreigners 
who were not contributing to the welfare of Zambians.  Sata singled 
out for criticism Indian, Lebanese, and Chinese investors, a number 
of whom have moved into recently-built markets, which were 
originally expected to be occupied by Zambian businesses.  Sata has 
also exploited the perception of many Zambians that foreign 
investors keep their Zambian workers in "slave conditions," 
reinforced by events such as a much-publicized recent incident at a 
Chinese-run coal mine in Southern Province where workers were 
discovered to be toiling in hazardous conditions without adequate 
protective clothing. 
 
MMD Takes on Sata 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although President Mwanawasa appears to enjoy more popular 
support than Sata, the MMD has nevertheless been steadily attacking 
the PF leader on a number of fronts.  Most notably, an MMD party 
leader demanded that ECZ Chairperson Justice Irene Mambilima 
disqualify Sata from the campaign.  In an August 22 letter to 
Justice Mambilima, former Minister of Sport, Youth, and Child 
Development George Chulumanda, who is also a member of the MMD 
national campaign committee, argued that Sata should be disqualified 
because he falsely claimed in his mandatory financial statement to 
the ECZ that Chulumanda owed him 350 million kwacha (USD 87,500), 
although the debt is in dispute. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The MMD has also criticized Sata repeatedly for his 
statements regarding foreign investors (see para 7).   Following a 
complaint from the MMD regarding Sata's threats to expel non-Zambian 
investors, ECZ Chairperson Mambilima asked Sata to come to the ECZ 
to explain his comments.  When Sata appeared at the gates of the ECZ 
accompanied by a large group of boisterous supporters, Justice 
Mambilima refused to see him.  The ECZ has also demonstrated 
institutional independence in responding to the MMD complaints, 
indicating that it will not be pressured, but will deal with the 
issues according to its own procedures. 
 
UDA: Hichilema Takes a Business Approach to Development 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Hakainde 
Hichilema continues to emphasize to voters his background as a 
corporate leader, arguing that he is uniquely qualified to manage 
the Zambian economy.  Hichilema is telling voters that by creating 
an environment in Zambia that is friendly to business and investors, 
his administration will be able to create jobs and generate tax 
revenue for the government.  Hichilema has also emphasized the 
importance of social stability in his campaign messages, preaching 
the need to promote inclusiveness, and embrace all regions and 
tribal groupings under the "One Zambia, One Nation" national motto 
popularized by First President Kenneth Kaunda (who is an unabashed 
UDA supporter).  The 44-year-old Hichilema's message seems to appeal 
to university students, businessmen, and manufacturers, as well as 
some farmers, but this is a fairly small segment of the electorate. 
 
 
Hichilema Questioned 
-------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Although his message is positive, the politically green 
Hichilema has made some missteps that call into question his ability 
to run the country.  Of particular concern to many is the tribalism 
that seems to have enveloped Hichilema's United National Development 
Party, and which may have extended to the UDA coalition.  After the 
UNDP convention that elected Hichilema as president split largely 
along tribal lines, Hichilema reinforced the perception of tribalism 
within the UDA coalition by presiding over the alliance's selection 
of a parliamentary slate dominated by Tongas, the Southern Province 
tribal group that forms Hichilima's support base (Reftel). 
 
¶12. (SBU) In addition to his public commitment to social harmony, 
opponents have also questioned Hichilema's integrity as a 
businessman.  Most notably, former UPND Acting President Sakwiba 
Sikota, who formed an alliance with Sata's PF (Reftel) after 
dropping out of the UPND, alleged that much of Hichilema's 23 
billion kwacha net worth (USD 5.75 million), was gained improperly 
as a result of his role in the privatization of Zambian state 
assets.  Hichilema is known to have participated in negotiating the 
sale of assets such as Luanshya Mine, Lima Bank and the 
Intercontinental Hotel in Livingstone.  Sikota's accusations, even 
 
LUSAKA 00001183  003 OF 003 
 
 
if unfounded, may strike home with many Zambians who believe that 
they were cheated by privatization. 
 
PASSEN