VZCZCXRO9524
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHEG #5298/01 2360844
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 240844Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0836
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005298

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR RICK WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN PARLIAMENTARY DYNAMICS: DEBATE SHIFTS,
BUT END RESULTS REMAIN UNCHANGED

REF: A. CAIRO 4335
¶B. CAIRO 3993

Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The current Egyptian parliament, populated by
a majority of National Democratic Party (NDP) members and an
energized Islamist minority, contains more opposition
parliamentarians than any previous People's Assembly in
Egyptian republican history. The presence of an activist and
disciplined bloc of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) MP's has had a
pronounced influence on the tone and tenor of the assembly's
debate. Many observers see a "positive shift" in
parliamentary dynamics. An ambitious agenda for the coming
parliamentary session is set to be unveiled at the upcoming
NDP party conference, and it is anticipated that when the
People's Assembly reconvenes, numerous contentious
constitutional amendments will be debated, as will a new
Anti-Terror Law. The NDP's majority firmly controlled the
2005-2006 legislative process, and the same can be expected
when the 2006-2007 session opens in November. Although we
anticipate many stormy parliamentary debates in the coming
session, in the final analysis, the NDP's legislative agenda
will win. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) The current Egyptian parliament, populated by a
majority of NDP members and an energized Islamist minority,
contains more opposition parliamentarians than any previous
People's Assembly in Egyptian republican history. The NDP's
majority of 332 MPs (out of 454 seats) put it in firm control
of the legislative process during the 2005-2006 session, and
the same can be expected when the 2006-2007 session opens in
November. However, the presence of an activist 88-seat bloc
of MB MP's, often joined in voting by the few leftist
opposition parliamentarians (8 seats) and various
independents (14 seats), has had a pronounced influence on
the tone and tenor of the assembly's debate (Note: 12 other
parliamentary seats are currently unfilled, because of
cancellation of election results from six constituencies due
to balloting irregularities. End note).

¶3. (C) Observers from across the political spectrum agree
that there has been a "positive shift" in parliamentary
dynamics, as the legislative body engaged in more substantive
debate than in the past. However, all of our interlocutors
noted that the NDP's still dominant majority guarantees them
final legislative victory. Although Egypt's legislative body
now has a louder bark, it is still toothless when it comes to
balancing the overwhelming power of the executive branch.

--------------------------------------------- -------------
OBSERVERS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM AGREE PARLIAMENTARY DYNAMICS
HAVE CHANGED
--------------------------------------------- -------------

¶4. (C) In an August 17 meeting, Mohamed Kamal (key Gamal
Mubarak advisor, influential member of the NDP Policies
Secretariat, and professor of political science at Cairo
University) noted that paradoxically, the presence of the
large MB parliamentary bloc has had a "positive" influence on
the NDP. He opined, "we have had to become more disciplined
as a party," stating that unlike previous parliamentary
sessions, briefings are now held for NDP parliamentarians at
NDP HQ prior to new laws being introduced, so that they can
be fully apprised of the NDP position. Kamal observed that
the "level of debate in Parliament has become more
substantive and serious." He also expressed admiration for
the MB's "party discipline," noting that when
parliamentarians filed their responses to the presidential
questionnaire on constitutional amendments (ref A), every MB
MP filed "the exact same response, to the letter!" Other
observers have also commented to us on the MB's high level of
organization in preparing for parliamentary activity; we have
heard unconfirmed reports that when Parliament is in session,
all of the MB MP's, even those from Cairo, stay in the same
hotel in the Cairene suburbs, as a sort of team-building
exercise.

¶5. (C) Al Ahram Weekly's long-time parliamentary
correspondent, Gamal Essam El-Din, told poloff on August 20
that he had observed "significant shifts" during the last
session of the assembly. Overall, he felt that the body has
assumed more importance and stature in Egyptian politics,
noting that when he first started working at Parliament in
1992, there were only 20 journalists covering the assembly,
compared with 150 today. Essam El-Din summed up the major
substantive changes as (1) an increased parliamentary focus
on regional and Arab affairs (citing the unprecedented
separate parliamentary meetings on Iraq, Palestine, and
Lebanon held at the MB's urging); (2) increased assertiveness
of the parliamentary oversight role (noting in particular the
focus of MB MP's on privatization issues regarding the Bank
of Alexandria and the Omar Effendi retail chain), and; (3)
the "virtual disappearance of taboo topics," as MB and
leftist MP's try to "outdo" each other in the eyes of the
public.

¶6. (C) Procedurally, Essam El-Din said that due to the
rigorous attendance of all MB MP's, NDP MP's have had to curb
their absenteeism, and "actually show up, unlike in the past,
so that the MB doesn't win parliamentary votes." (Note:
Parliamentary votes can be held, no matter how many delegates
are absent. End note). Like Kamal, he characterized the MB
bloc as "extremely disciplined," as contrasted with "overall
lazy NDP parliamentarians, who face divisions within their
own ranks." Essam El-Din noted that the NDP currently lacks
a strong parliamentary "whip" to keep MP's in line, which has
resulted in embarrassments such as two NDP MP's interrupting
Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif's speech during the final session
of parliament on July 12, yelling that Nazif's statements are
"usually fabrications." However, despite such occasional
rhetorical outbursts, NDP MP's very rarely go against the
party line when it comes to actual voting. Essam El-Din
described Saad al-Katatni, the leader of the MB bloc, as a
"moderate" who works to "rein in" some of the more fiery MB
parliamentarians.

¶7. (C) Political analyst Amr Choubaki of the Al Ahram Center
for Strategic Studies, commented to poloff on August 17 that
"the MB is making the NDP parliamentarians actually do their
homework ... Parliament is becoming a more serious body ...
because of the presence of the MB bloc, the NDP must take the
assembly as a whole more seriously." Like others, he
mentioned that NDP parliamentarians are now having to attend
parliamentary sessions, to ensure an NDP majority when votes
occur, citing an instance when the NDP did not have enough
NDP's in attendance, and Fathy Sarour thus had to call a
re-vote. Choubaki was also impressed with the MB
parliamentarians' discipline, and noted that "they all take
their role very seriously, and are very professional, unlike
many of their NDP colleagues."

--------------------------------------------- ---------
FORMAL NDP REVIEW OF 2005-06 PARLIAMENTARY SESSION ...
--------------------------------------------- ---------

¶8. (SBU) At the close of the 2005-2006 parliamentary session,
Speaker of the People's Assembly Fathy Sorour released a
73-page statement warmly praising the Parliament's
performance during the previous term, particularly the manner
in which MP's of different political affiliations "exercised
their legislative and supervisory roles during a time of
international and domestic tribulations." The report states,
"In the new Assembly the number of the ruling NDP MP's
decreased by 20 percent (from 88.5 percent to 68.5 percent),
while the proportion of opposition and independent MP's
increased from nearly 10 to 31.5 percent," which resulted in,
"...the opposition (being) vociferous and effective."
Sorour's report highlighted that in the 2005-2006 session,
Parliament held 121 general sessions, for a total of 557
hours and 54 minutes (the lengthiest record in Egypt's
parliamentary history), and 1149 committee and joint
committee meetings. According to the report, the Assembly
passed 33 overall laws, 113 financial and budgetary laws, had
94 motions for draft laws, reviewed 54 treaties, and ratified
1 presidential decree.

-------------------------------------------
... AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S ASSESSMENT
-------------------------------------------

¶9. (C) In mid-August, the MB website issued a 13-page report
entitled "Summary of MB Performance in Egyptian Parliament
Since 2005." The report complained that the NDP used it's
majority to marginalize opposition and MB parliamentarians
for committee assignments, but goes on to outline an
extraordinary range of MB bloc activities. The report also
"classifies" the various members of the MB bloc as follows:
14 general managers and chiefs of sectors, 10 accountants, 9
teachers, 8 professors, 7 technical specialists, 6 lawyers, 6
physicians, 6 employees, 5 engineers, 4 businessmen, 4
pharmacists, 3 agronomists, 3 Azhari scholars, 2
veterinarians, and 1 journalist.

-------
COMMENT
-------

¶10. (C) Despite outspoken criticism during debate on some key
legislative issues (new judiciary law, new press law,
extension of the Emergency Law) during the 2005-2006
parliamentary session, opposition efforts largely did not
affect final passage of legislation. One prime example of
this is the walk-out from Parliament of 100 opposition MP's
to protest the draft judiciary law. The law was passed
unchanged (ref B). An ambitious agenda for the coming
parliamentary session will be unveiled at the NDP party
conference beginning September 19. When the People's
Assembly reconvenes in November, numerous contentious
constitutional amendments will likely be debated, as will a
new Anti-Terror Law (to replace the current Emergency Law).
While we can expect many stormy parliamentary debates in the
2006-2007 session, in the end, the NDP's legislative agenda
will be successful.

RICCIARDONE