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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 001912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE 
USCINCSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: THE LEADING CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION LEADER ON 
ARGENTINA'S POLITICAL SITUATION 
 
REF: 05 BUENOS AIRES 01391 
 
Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
------------------------ 
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION 
------------------------ 
 
¶1.  (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with 
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view 
of the current political situation in Argentina.  Elisa 
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President 
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a 
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  In a surprising admission, 
Carrio said that Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the 
only thing that is moderating Kirchner's alliance with 
Chavez.  Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic 
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet, 
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that 
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another 
Chavez."" 
 
¶2.  (C) Turning to domestic politics, Elisa Carrio argued 
that President Kirchner would likely win reelection in 2007, 
but that Kirchner's government would fail in the long term. 
Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to assume 
power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition alliances 
only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new allies.  Asked 
about the future of her old party, the Radical Civic Union 
(UCR), she said the party was dying.  Carrio reported good 
relations with Republican Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio 
Macri and Ricardo Lopez Murphy, but disagreed with their 
vision to solve the country's crime problem.  Regarding ARI 
and her own future, she said it was good for her to step 
aside from the party leadership and expressed confidence that 
she and ARI would eventually run the country.  Carrio also 
lamented Argentina's weak institutions and the lack of 
intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress. 
 
¶3.  (C) Background: Elisa Carrio is the most significant 
center-left opposition figure in Argentina.  She ran for 
President in 2003, coming in fifth place.  She is currently a 
member of the Lower House of Congress, representing the City 
of Buenos Aires.  She is a declared candidate for the 2007 
presidential elections.  Carrio has recently given up her 
leadership role in the party she founded in 2001, Affirmation 
for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI), but she remains ARI's 
presidential candidate and continues to have regular contact 
with ARI's leadership.  ARI has been plagued by several 
recent defections to President Kirchner's alliance and 
disputes within the party over a controversial birth control 
bill, which led Carrio to step aside from her party 
leadership position.  Poloff met on August 23 with Fernando 
Cantero, the leader of ARI's bloc in the Buenos Aires City 
Legislature, who strongly criticized Carrio's authoritarian 
tendencies and failure to explain her meetings with 
center-right politicians like Ricardo Lopez Murphy and 
Patricia Bullrich to the party faithful.  (For more on Elisa 
Carrio and ARI, see reftel.)  END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ARGENTINA'S CONFRONTATIONAL FOREIGN POLICY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with 
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view 
of the current political situation in Argentina.  Elisa 
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President 
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a 
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  ""Kirchner picks fights 
with everyone in the region.  It was wrong for Kirchner to 
snub Peruvian President Garcia by skipping his inauguration. 
Kirchner has also created conflicts with Uruguay and 
Paraguay.""  Carrio attributed Kirchner's confrontational 
style to his background in Patagonia and insular style. 
 
BUENOS AIR 00001912  002 OF 004 
 
 
""Everyone on the outside is viewed as an enemy.  He has 
little understanding of the larger world."" 
 
¶5.  (C) Carrio argued that Kirchner's relationship with 
Chavez is based primarily on corrupt business deals managed 
by Planning Minister Julio De Vido, but carried with it 
serious dangers because it could draw Argentina into the 
Mideast conflict because of Chavez's close relations with 
Iran.  ""Kirchner can disagree publicly with Chavez on certain 
issues, but that will never affect the business deals that he 
and De Vido have with Chavez.""  For Carrio, the relationship 
with Venezuela was risky.  ""The United States is deeply 
involved in the Mideast conflict and Europe cannot avoid it. 
Latin American can and should avoid being drawn into the 
conflict.  Chavez's relationship with Iran is dangerous and 
could pull Argentina into the conflict."" 
 
¶6.  (C) In a surprising admission, Carrio said that 
Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the only thing that 
is moderating Kirchner's alliance with Chavez.  For Carrio, 
there are limits on how far Kirchner is willing to go with 
Chavez because Kirchner does not want a major conflict with 
the United States.  ""Kirchner will never seek a serious 
conflict with the United States.  He is fascinated with the 
U.S., even though he only really knows New York."" 
 
¶7.  (C) Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic 
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet, 
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that 
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another 
Chavez.""  Carrio argued that Brazil's lack of strategic 
vision and weakness in the region has allowed Chavez to gain 
influence in the region, which is compounded by Kirchner's 
alliance with Chavez.  She acknowledged that many people hope 
the situation will improve after Brazilian President Lula 
wins re-election, but she herself was not optimistic.  She 
said she saw a lot of herself in Chilean President Bachelet 
and thought Bachelet would be successful.  Carrio argued that 
Peruvian runner-up Ollanta Humala was another Chavez that 
would assume power in Peru if President Garcia failed. 
 
 
¶8.  (C) Carrio said that Bolivian President Morales was not 
like Chavez and instead represented the legitimate desire of 
the Bolivian indigenous majority for a political voice. 
""Don't confuse Morales with Chavez.  Morales has to succeed 
in order to preserve social order in Bolivia.  He needs to be 
like Nelson Mandela in South Africa."" 
 
¶9.  (C) On Cuba, Carrio said that the GOC was a dictatorship. 
 ""For me, Fidel Castro was a hero at one time, and the Cuban 
revolution had a legitimate original purpose.  Now, however, 
we have to recognize that it has just become a dictatorship."" 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
DOMESTIC SITUATION BLEAK, BUT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT LONG TERM 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Elisa Carrio argued that President Kirchner would 
likely win reelection in 2007, but that Kirchner's government 
would fail in the long term.  Carrio said that despite 
Kirchner's apparent political strength, his support is thin. 
""Kirchner is an evil that is very wide, but only three 
centimeters deep.  Unlike Alfonsin and Menem, Kirchner lacks 
charisma, and no one has a great love for him.  Even his 
closest associates would prefer not to stand next to him. 
Kirchner has no real political party, since the Peronist 
Party structure is gone.  Also, since the crisis, Argentina 
has lacked the political corporate solidarity that it once 
had to support a president in crisis.  When the next crisis 
hits, Kirchner could fall very quickly.""  She said that 
Kirchner will not be able to modify the Constitution to run 
again in 2011 because he will fall before he has a chance. 
 
¶11.  (C) Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to 
assume power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition 
 
BUENOS AIR 00001912  003 OF 004 
 
 
alliances only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new 
allies.  Carrio noted that ARI has been training thousands of 
activists over the past several years on how to properly run 
a functioning government.  Carrio said that ARI has avoided 
being involved in opposition alliances to prevent the 
dilution of their political force, which she said would only 
benefit Kirchner.  ""In ARI we have 15 percent of the vote 
that Kirchner cannot touch.  The proposed opposition alliance 
will be a marriage of the worst of Radicalismo and Duhaldismo 
in support of Lavagna.  Lavagna will lose in the end and then 
Kirchner will co-opt most of the alliance's legislators."" 
 
¶12.  (C) Asked about the future of her old party, the Radical 
Civic Union (UCR), she said the party was dying.  ""The party 
convention that is starting tomorrow is the beginning of the 
end.""  Carrio said that the Radicales that align with 
Kirchner will be absorbed into Peronism within a few years, 
as the Peronists have done with several other parties that 
have aligned with it over the past 60 years. 
 
¶13.  (C) Carrio reported good relations with Republican 
Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio Macri and Ricardo Lopez 
Murphy, but disagreed with their vision to solve the 
country's crime problem.  Carrio said that the crime issue 
was too important to be entrusted to the center-right, who 
want to solve the problem by changing the penal code to 
increase sentences.  Carrio argued that the real source of 
the crime problem was poverty and drugs.  Carrio said that 
Carlos Bloomberg had become the center of the anti-crime 
campaign, which was problematic because Bloomberg was 
vulnerable to attack by Kirchner because of a potential fraud 
scandal involving a failed Bloomberg business several years 
ago.  The center-right's control over the crime issue played 
into Kirchner's hands, Carrio argued.  ""Kirchner wants to 
create the appearance of a fight between the rich and the 
poor, where he is seen as the defender of the poor.  Kirchner 
uses D'Elia to help create this situation and Bloomberg is a 
convenient target."" 
 
¶14.  (C) Regarding ARI and her own future, she said it was 
good for her to step aside from the party leadership and 
expressed confidence that she and ARI would eventually run 
the country.  ""They (the ARI leadership) need to learn to 
take responsibility.  They have shifted left since I stepped 
down, but it is all part of the development process.  ARI is 
a small party, but one day it will govern the country."" 
Carrio said that the polls show people admire her, but the 
majority of people would never vote for her.  ""I talk about 
the need for a 20-year plan to change this country, about the 
need for a Moncloa Pact in this country between labor, 
business and the government.  Argentines want someone to give 
them a short-term solution and there are no short-term 
solutions to Argentina's problems.  The people need to change 
their way of thinking."" 
 
¶15.  (C) Carrio lamented Argentina's weak institutions and 
the lack of intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress. 
""When I first entered Congress in 1995, the members of 
Congress could at least debate issues and reach agreements, 
even the Menemists.  Now, there is no debate.  Everyone is 
too scared of saying something that will offend Kirchner and 
most legislators lack the formation to carry on an 
intelligent debate on the issues.""  Carrio said that the 
Supreme Court was the only remaining independent institution 
in the country.  Carrio argued that Kirchner did not fill the 
two vacancies on the court because he regretted the 
independent justices that he appointed early in his term. 
Carrio said that Kirchner planned to appoint cronies to the 
court after he wins election, starting with Legal and 
Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16. (C) Elisa Carrio's broad education and her log 
experience in Argentine politics make her an interesting 
 
BUENOS AIR 00001912  004 OF 004 
 
 
person to talk to about the country's political situation. 
She is also one of the few Argentine political leaders that 
seems to genuinely care about the health of the country's 
democratic institutions.  Carrio has had difficult time 
explaining how to translate her broad proposals and solutions 
into concrete reality.  As a result, polls show that although 
Argentines generally like Carrio's discourse and think that 
she makes a positive contribution to the dialogue in 
Congress, they would be reluctant to vote for her for an 
executive position.  Her apparent inability to manage her own 
party only adds to this impression.  Carrio will need to 
demonstrate her management skills to the Argentine public in 
the coming years or risk permanently surrendering the 
leadership of the opposition to the center-right.  We will 
continue to meet with Carrio periodically in the coming year 
to assist our political reporting in the run-up to next 
year's presidential elections. 
 
MATERA