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C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000679 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN FRONT/GNU NEGOTIATIONS PROCEED, NO 
AGREEMENTS YET 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY:  CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: While the Eastern Front and the 
Government of Nation Unity(GNU) have both expressed 
optimism about progress in negotiations since their 
resumption August 8, outside advisors for the Eastern 
Front expressed concern about the Eastern Front's 
capabilities to achieve a fair agreement.  The two 
trickiest issues - unification of the three eastern 
states and wealth sharing - remain as yet unresolved. 
Eastern Front leadership supports the idea of capacity 
training as suggested by AF/SPG.  End Summary. 
 
VIEW FROM THE EASTERN FRONT 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On August 17, Poloff met with Dr. Amna Dirar, 
vice-chairman of the Eastern Front and chairman of the 
Beja Congress. While remaining optimistic about the 
direction of the talks, Dr. Dirar did express 
disappointment in the committee discussions on wealth 
sharing, which had concluded the same day without 
resolution of all of the issues. The GNU's proposal of 
USD 300 million for development and rehabilitation 
projects fell well below the Eastern Front's proposal of 
over USD 1 billion.  The Eastern Front's proposal 
identified specific projects in areas such as health, 
education, agriculture and infrastructure.  Most of these 
projects are small community targeted programs, such as 
health centers, wells and small livestock programs.  In 
contradiction of an August 17th GSE-issued press release 
stating that the parties had come to agreement, Dr. Dirar 
said that no agreement had been reached.  Both parties 
have consented to present outstanding issues to the 
mediator for resolution.  Dirar noted that the primary 
unresolved economic issue for the Eastern Front is the 
total amount of money proposed by the GNU. 
 
¶3. (C) Looking forward to committee discussions on 
security and power sharing which begin on August 21, 
Dirar reiterated the Eastern Front's commitment to 
unifying the three states of Kasala, Red Sea and Gederaf. 
While admitting that some members of the Eastern Front 
are considering alternatives, she reinforced that the 
one-state issue continues to be of utmost importance. 
She also said that the Eastern Front will be seeking to 
increase their representation within the military, police 
and the government institutions, including a vice 
president position at the central level. 
 
¶4.  (C) Dirar expressed appreciation for the support of 
Dr. Sara Pantuliano of the Overseas Development 
Institute.  Pantuliano, a well-known and respected expert 
on Eastern Sudan, had provided assistance to the Eastern 
Front as they prepared for daily meetings. (Note: 
Pantuliano departed Asmara on August 19 but will return 
in September. End note.)  Dirar repeated her request for 
additional international support in the areas of 
capacity-building and for immediate financial support to 
cover the expenses of negotiations. 
 
VIEW FROM THE SUDANESE EMBASSY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) During an introductory call by Charge on August 
15, Sudanese Charge Hussein Mohamed Hussein stated that 
negotiations were going well and an agreement could be 
quickly reached.  He noted that "80 percent" of the 
security committee's work and "90 percent" of the 
economic/wealth-sharing negotiations were complete.  When 
asked about the outstanding political issues, Hussein 
explained that the GNU would not support the creation of 
a single state for the East and noted that the East 
 
already had adequate representation in the government. 
(Comment: The statement regarding the security 
committee's work is interesting considering that the 
security committee is scheduled to begin discussion the 
week of August 21. End comment.)  He added that the 
political issues were not in fact vital to the Eastern 
Front as long as the economic issues were addressed. 
 
VIEW FROM THE EGYPTIANS 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Charge met with Egyptian DCM Hussein Elshar on 
August 19, long-term diplomat in Eritrea and follower of 
Sudan issues.  Hussein disagreed with the Sudanese 
assessment that the Eastern Front would be willing to 
sacrifice the political agenda for economic objectives. 
However, he noted the Eritreans' strong influence on the 
process.  A resolution, if any, will ultimately depend on 
what the Eritreans decide is in their own interest. 
 
VIEWS FROM EASTERN FRONT ADVISORS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) PolOff spoke with Dr. Pantuliano and Dr. Taiseir 
Ali of the Peacebuilding Center of the Horn of Africa 
(protect) about the talks. Both felt disheartened with 
the process thus far, noting that the Eastern Front was 
outgunned by the GNU delegation.  For example, the GNU 
have very high level people from the Ministry of Finance 
on their side, while an Eastern Front member, a mid-level 
employee of the Ministry, is negotiating with his bosses. 
Pantuliano also expressed concern that the Eastern 
Front's focus on small-scale projects would not help them 
achieve long-term goals of wealth sharing.  "A factory 
here and a water project there" will not be enough to 
support the Eastern Front and the region as a whole. 
Furthermore, in her meeting with Sudanese officials in 
Asmara, Pantuliano overheard conversations between 
Sudanese officials indicating that the GNU was "buying- 
off" members of the Eastern Front. (Note: The Sudanese 
officials speaking in Arabic in her presence were unaware 
that she is a fluent Arabic speaker. End note.) 
 
¶8. (C) Comment:  While both delegations are presenting an 
optimistic public face, post's discussions with the 
parties clearly show that significant gaps still remain 
to be bridged on the critical issues of wealth and power 
sharing.  We doubt the Eastern Front delegation will 
readily concede its political agenda to achieve greater 
economic gains.   We have no evidence that Eastern Front 
members have been "bought-off". However, a few members of 
the Eastern Front could be susceptible, thus weakening 
the Eastern Front's negotiating position. The role of 
Eritrea as an honest broker remains a question.  Given 
that the limited capacity of the Eastern Front will 
continue to be an issue, post supports the idea of 
providing technical training to the Eastern Front.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
MCINTYRE