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Viewing cable 06ANKARA5020, SEPTEMBER 5 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON TURKISH UNIFIL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ANKARA5020 2006-08-31 16:53 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ankara
VZCZCXRO0584
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #5020/01 2431653
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 311653Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8303
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 1772
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH// IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU IMMEDIATE
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2021 
TAGS: PREL GPGOV USUN LE TU
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 5 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON TURKISH UNIFIL 
TROOP DEPLOYMENT 
 
REF: ANKARA 4978 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), 
(d) 
 
1. (C)  Summary.  The Turkish government will ask the speaker 
of parliament to convene a special session on September 5 to 
vote on deploying troops to Lebanon.  The ruling Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group will meet late 
September 4 with PM Erdogan to persuade waverers and prepare 
for the vote.  PM Erdogan, FM Gul and other government and 
party leaders took the decision at an August 29 meeting, 
following the government's August 28 decision to contribute 
troops to UNIFIL (reftel).  The AKP leaders continue 
carefully to lay the groundwork to ensure a successful 
outcome.  Erdogan is expected to appeal for public support in 
his August 31 address to the nation.  The vote will be open, 
not secret, forcing any AKP naysayers to confront the PM 
directly.  A successful vote will bolster Erdogan's image as 
statesman and regional leader as he prepares to meet with 
UNSYG Annan on September 6 and President Bush on October 2. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (C) The government will submit its motion to the Speaker 
of Parliament by September 1, seeking a parliamentary vote to 
deploy troops abroad.  A petition calling for a special 
session and signed by the required number of AKP MPs will 
also be submitted.  Anticipating that a special session might 
be needed on a different issue (the ninth EU accession reform 
package), AKP had collected the requisite signatures from MPs 
before the June recess.  With this requirement met, and 
Speaker Arinc's support for the government's decision, the 
GOT plans to convene a special session on September 5, AKP 
whip Salih Kapusuz told us August 30. 
 
3. (C) With a quorum of at least 184 MPs (of a total of 550), 
the GOT will need a minimum of 138 votes to pass the motion, 
according to Turkey's constitution.  The government plans to 
convene the session at 3 p.m. on September 5; SYG Annan 
arrives in Ankara later that evening.  FM Gul and opposition 
party leaders will speak to assembled MPs prior to a vote, 
which Kapusuz stated categorically will be open; there will 
be no secret ballot.  The decision will enter into effect 
once it is published in the Official Gazette.  President 
Sezer, who opposes a troop contribution to UNIFIL, is charged 
under the constitution with implementing a parliamentary 
decision to deploy troops abroad; he has no constitutional 
authority to veto such a decision, although he has argued 
that the president retains the right to take the matter to 
the Constitutional Court. 
 
4. (C) PM Erdogan, who has been actively pushing for a troop 
contribution for weeks, is determined to get the 
parliamentary support he needs.  The AKP's Central Executive 
Board and parliamentary group are shoring up party support 
and neutralizing opposition through personal outreach and 
media statements.  Most AKP deputies are likely to toe the 
party line, if only to preserve their positioning as 
candidates in next year's general elections.  They will come 
face to face with the PM at a party group meeting the evening 
of September 4.  At that session, Kapusuz explained, Erdogan 
would lay out the reasons for the vote, with an emphasis on 
Turkey's role as a regional power whose leaders sought a 
ceasefire from the beginning.  Kapusuz stressed that 
countering public misperceptions, fed by the gruesome 
pictures that appeared during the recent conflict, was key to 
the AKP strategy.  A handful of AKP deputies, responding to 
constituent pressure, have voiced opposition, with a few 
others taking a wary but undecided stance.  AKP members who 
are not on board with the deployment decision are reportedly 
being told not to attend the parliamentry session. 
 
5. (C) The GOT has yet to specifythe details of its proposed 
deployment, although it is expected to be for an initial one 
year period and involve under 1000 troops.  Erdogan, FM Gul 
and other AKP leaders have stressed in public statements that 
Turkish troops are deploying on a peacekeeping mission and 
not to disarm Hizbullah, a message Kapusuz again drove home 
to us, and which Erdogan is likely to reiterate in his August 
31 speech to the nation. 
 
ANKARA 00005020  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
6. (C) Comment.  Erdogan's personal commitment to a 
successful vote and the speed with which the GOT has pressed 
forward with its motion, combined with the AKP's majority of 
355 seats, make it likely parliament will approve the 
government's motion to deploy troops to Lebanon.  The GOT 
also has an unwitting ally in President Sezer, whose 
opposition to the motion has almost guaranteed that most AKP 
MPs will vote for it.  Erdogan is willing to risk public 
opposition for the sake of Turkey's (and his own) prestige as 
a regional leader.  Each step he and FM Gul have taken since 
the onset of the Israel-Lebanon conflict -- including early 
and repeated calls for a ceasefire, apparently genuine anger 
at what AKP leaders termed Israeli use of disproportionate 
force, and calls for U.S. leadership -- appear to have built 
to this moment.  AKP is taking no chances, though; the PM 
will not risk MPs defecting in a secret ballot -- they will 
have to face him down.  The GOT is also braced for sharp 
attacks from the opposition, including calls for Turkey to 
deal with its own problems at home -- the PKK -- before 
sending any troops abroad.  End comment. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON