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P 221642Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6876
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 4867
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR NI THIRDTERM ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR HARUNA PESSIMISTIC ON ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Ambassador and PolOff met with Governor 
Boni Haruna of Adamawa State on August 21.  Haruna is 
supporting Atiku's presidential bid and says he is confident 
Atiku will win if there is "a level playing field."  Haruna 
complained that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission 
(EFCC) was being used to target the President's opponents and 
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was not 
adequately prepared to hold elections.  He also said that 
former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) has significant 
support among the country's elites.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Haruna believes that Vice President Atiku Abubakar 
will win any presidential election where there is a level 
playing field.  He bases his assessment on Atiku's nationwide 
network of supporters built from eight years as Vice 
President.  He also said that in Nigeria, one builds popular 
support from the sense that one cares about people's day to 
day problems.  Atiku has been able to build this sense of 
identification and should be able to build a popular movement 
to fill out the campaign organization he has already built. 
However, Haruna said that these factors will only matter if 
there is "a level playing field."  He was quite pessimistic 
that fair elections would be held. 
 
¶3.  (S) Haruna said that the EFCC is being used as a 
political weapon to discredit potential opponents, and he 
believes this is happening at the personal direction of 
President Obasanjo.  He cited the charges brought against 
IBB's son as a specific example.  Because the Nigerian 
constitution prohibits someone from seeking elected office if 
they are facing criminal charges, a simple accusation from 
the EFCC is all that is needed to derail a political 
candidacy.  The slow pace of the Nigerian justice system 
makes it unlikely that the charges could be faced and 
defeated quickly enough to satisfy the electoral calendar. 
 
¶4.  (C) According to Haruna, INEC is less ready for the 2007 
elections than they were at the same point in the 2003 
elections cycle.  More importantly, he believes they are not 
moving aggressively to prepare.  However, he said that it 
would not be hard to revalidate the voter rolls from 2003, 
thus overcoming one of the major challenges to election 
preparation.  (Note: INEC has told us that they are going to 
capture fingerprints and photos of all voters, which would 
require that every voter re-register since that system was 
not in use in 2003.  It also presents substantial logistical 
problems.  End Note.) 
 
¶5.  (S) In addition to the possibility that the electoral 
playing field would not be level, Haruna hinted at the 
possibility of military intervention.  When discussing IBB, 
Haruna said that IBB had little popular support among 
Nigerians.  IBB was once viewed as a generous man but no 
longer is.  That hurts his popular support.  However, Haruna 
believes that he does have active support from the elites of 
the country.  This is particularly true of military elites, 
both active and retired.  He also said that Nigeria's 
fundamental problems today stem from annulling the 1993 
elections, which were seen as free and fair, and led to the 
brutal Abacha dictatorship.  However, he did not predict a 
military coup.  The conversation only hinted at the 
possibility that Nigeria could resume her traditional manner 
of changing government. 
 
¶6.  (C) COMMENT.  Haruna is the Christian governor of a 
predominately Muslim state.  The Ambasador last met with him 
in December 2005.  Haruna initially won office when running 
as Lieutenant Governor.  Atiku was the gubernatorial 
candidate and stepped aside to become Vice President.  Haruna 
then became governor.  He said that he anticipates holding 
high national office if Atiku wins the presidency.  However, 
while leaving the door open to another gubernatorial run, he 
said that he did not enjoy being governor under the Obasanjo 
administration and did not plan to run again.  While he 
laughed when raising it, he said he might be seeking asylum 
in the United States if Atiku does not win.  Speaking more 
seriously, he said he might leave the country just before his 
term in office ended (and thus his immunity from prosecution 
expired).  He did not mention a specific criminal charge he 
expected to face, but instead raised the specter of a false 
charge from EFCC. 
 
¶7.  (S)  COMMENT CONTINUED.  We are hearing an increasing 
number of voices say that they believe President Obasanjo 
intends to stay in office and is willing to use the apparatus 
of the state, including the EFCC, to extend his time.  Haruna 
seemed pessimistic almost to the point of depression.  He 
spoke extremely slowly, but it was very difficult to 
 
ABUJA 00002181  002 OF 002 
 
 
interject something in to the conversation.  He is one more 
voice sounding a bad omen for 2007.  END COMMENT. 
CAMPBELL