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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002129 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI ELECTIONS THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: BENUE STATE GOVERNOR SAYS OBASANJO INTENDS TO STAY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (S) SUMMARY.  Benue State Governor George Akume paid a 
courtesy call on the Ambassador August 16.  Also present were 
two of Akume's advisors, House of Representatives member 
Tengu Tsegba, and PolOff.  Akume's central message was that 
President Obasanjo intends to stay in office but could be 
persuaded to leave by the United States and the United 
Kingdom.  President Obasanjo scheduled a meeting later on 
August 16 to test the political waters with members of the 
PDP caucus in the National Assembly.  Akume also implied 
official complicity in a recent string of political murders, 
reiterated that the original agreement between Obasanjo and 
northern political leaders in 1999 was for Obasanjo to serve 
only four years, and said that elections were not held in 
some parts of Nigeria in 2003.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) According to Akume, Obasanjo is motivated to stay in 
office by fear that he will be prosecuted for financial 
crimes once he leaves and by his desire to maintain a 
position on the world stage.  Akume believes, however, that 
Obsanjo might yet be persuaded to leave if the US and the UK 
could offer him private assurances that no ill would befall 
him after leaving office and if they offered Obasanjo some 
continued role in international politics.  According to 
Akume, if the US and UK were to make public pronouncements 
protecting Obasanjo, no Nigerian political leader would dare 
oppose that pronouncement in future.   Akume said that 
Obasanjo gave large cash bribes to legislators who supported 
the third-term constitutional amendment.  Some of those 
legislators so angered their constituents that they can only 
go home now with a security escort. 
 
¶3. (C) Akume said that Obasanjo called a meeting with the PDP 
legislative caucus later on August 16.  According to Tsegba, 
the purpose of the meeting was to discuss what the National 
Assembly's response would be if elections were not held in 
¶2007.  Newspaper accounts on August 17 said that the meeting 
was held to discuss general political strategy, funding for a 
planned Lagos to Kano rail line, and to provide anti-third 
term legislators a forum to seek assurances that their 
positions would not be held against them.  In a phone call 
with PolOff on the 17th, Tsegba said that the rail line was 
indeed the main focus of the meeting.  However, it was 
presented by the president as his "vision for the next four 
or five years."  Obasanjo did not explicitly ask for more 
time in office, but that is how the legislators present 
understood the discussion.  According to Tsegba, the PDP 
caucus was not receptive to the notion of additional time in 
office and advised the president that the rail project should 
be designed in such a way that any future president could see 
it through. 
 
¶4. (S) Disturbingly, Akume implied official complicity in a 
string of recent political murders.  Many of these killings 
have targeted leading candidates within the PDP.  Akume gave 
names neither of those involved in the killings nor of which 
of the deceased were the victims of a murder sanctioned by 
government officials. 
 
¶5. (C)  Akume explained that a grand bargain had been 
negotiated in 1999 between Obasanjo and political leaders 
from the north.  Instrumental to negotiating this agreement 
was Iyorchia Ayu, a former President of the Senate who went 
on to hold multiple cabinet posts in the Obasanjo 
administration.  (Note: Ayu has since left the Obasanjo 
administration and is heading the presidential campaign team 
of Vice President Atiku Abubakar.  End Note.)  The agreement 
was that Obasanjo would only serve one term, and that the 
Presidency would then revert to the North.  When Obasanjo 
decided to run again in 2003, he made a show of having PDP 
leaders including Akume come to his chicken farm in 
southwestern Nigeria to "beg" him to run again. 
 
¶6. (S) Akume alleges that the elections in 2003 were highly 
irregular.  He says that Obasanjo "barely won" in Benue 
State, and that in some regions of Nigeria results were 
reported without elections even having been held.  He 
conceded that good elections had been held in 1993 and that 
elections had been organized on short notice in 1999.  Based 
on that experience, it is still possible for Nigeria to hold 
successful elections in 2007.  However, Akime does not see 
preparations being made for the elections and he believes 
this is because Obasanjo intends to stay. 
 
¶7. (C) COMMENT:  Akume is a member of the PDP who opposed the 
third term and is supporting Atiku's presidential bid.  We 
believe he will leave the PDP shortly after Atiku does.  His 
political opposition to the president certainly colors his 
views of Obasanjo's intentions.  However, his argument that 
 
ABUJA 00002129  002 OF 002 
 
 
Obasanjo intends to stay in office is consistent with local 
political chatter and with Tsegba's report of the PDP caucus. 
 While the embassy will continue to say publicly that 
elections were held in 1999 and 2003 and that we expect 
successful elections to be held in 2007, we concur that the 
GON is not moving aggressively to prepare for those 
elections.  Akume probably overstates the ability of the US 
and UK to "reassure" Obasanjo that he will not be prosecuted 
for alleged crimes after leaving office.  We also note that 
neither the President nor his close political associates have 
ever approached us for help with a "soft landing."  END 
COMMENT. 
CAMPBELL