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S E C R E T TOKYO 003671 
 
FOR ADMIRAL ROUGHHEAD FROM CDA DONOVAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2016 
TAGS: MARR OVIP PREL JA
 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR JULY 2-8 VISIT TO JAPAN 
 
Classified By: Charge Joe Donovan, reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: You arrive in Japan just as President Bush 
and Prime Minister Koizumi herald the deepening, expanding 
scope of our bilateral security alliance. Our close 
coordination against the current North Korean missile threat, 
as well as recent strides in BMD cooperation, have 
illustrated this change clearly to the Japanese. As 
implementation of the Alliance Transformation and Realignment 
Agreement (ATARA) continues, we need to press Japan to meet 
its funding commitments, but not at the expense of Alliance 
cooperation or other defense programs. Kitty Hawk 
replacement is well on track, and a robust program of Navy 
port visits, notably the upcoming carrier visit to Otaru, are 
helping highlight the alliance in areas without U.S. bases. 
We expect the trend of growing security cooperation with 
Japan to continue, even after Koizumi and his team step down 
in September. END SUMMARY 
BMD cooperation 
--------------- 
¶2. (C) BMD cooperation is providing a powerful illustration 
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of the "alliance for a new century" heralded this week by 
President Bush and Prime Minister Koizumi. The closeness of 
bilateral coordination in the face of a possible North Korean 
missile launch -- at the policy and military operational 
level -- has been gratifying to senior GOJ officials, many of 
whom remember the confusion following the 1998 flight of a 
Taepondong-1 over Japan. 
¶3. (S) Side-by-side operations by Navy and JMSDF Aegis ships 
in the Sea of Japan, along with the recent successful SM-3 
test by Yokosuka-bound USS Shiloh have provided further 
confirmation to the Japanese that BMD is important to their 
security. On June 23, the Ambassador and Foreign Minister 
Aso formally exchanged notes to enable co-development of a 
new SM-3 missile. The forward-deployed X-Band radar is now 
in place at the JASDF Shariki base in Northern Japan, and 
went operational on June 26. We also formally notified the 
Japanese government this week about plans to deploy PAC-3s to 
Kadena (a story which has already made it into the press, 
although there has been no official public announcement). 
¶4. (C) Japan's commitment to developing a joint BMD system is 
real. They have passed legislation to devolve launch 
authority, protected BMD projects within the JDA budget, and 
loosened long-standing restrictions on the export of military 
equipment to enable BMD development with the U.S. We expect 
BMD to help drive growing integration of command-and-control 
of U.S. and Japanese forces, and inject realism into Japanese 
thinking on thorny issues like collective defense. 
Alliance Transformation & Realignment 
------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Internal GOJ wrangling continues over how Japan will 
cover the costs of the Alliance Transformation and 
Realignment Agreement (ATARA), in particular the move of 
Marines to Guam. The Ministry of Finance and elements of the 
ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are pushing to offset 
part of the costs by cutting into the Japan Defense Agency 
(JDA) budget. JDA and MOFA want the money to come from 
cabinet discretionary funds, as was done for the 1996 SACO 
Agreement. The USG position is that the GOJ needs to fund 
what it agreed to under ATARA, but it is counter-productive 
to do so out of JDA's budget, as it risks cannibalizing other 
areas of alliance cooperation, including Host Nation Support. 
It would be helpful if you could make this point in your 
meetings with GOJ counterparts. 
¶6. (SBU) The realignments agreed to in ATARA remain 
politically controversial at the local level, especially in 
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Okinawa. The Iwakuni Mayor remains against the relocation of 
the forward deployed carrier air wing from Atsugi to Iwakuni, 
but the leadership of neighboring towns and the city's 
chamber of commerce do not share his view. 
¶7. (S) Discussion on bilateral "Roles, missions and 
capabilities" is progressing, and recently produced agreement 
to undertake joint site surveys of Japanese ports and 
airports that could be needed in a NEO contingency. 
Kitty Hawk replacement 
---------------------- 
¶8. (C) On June 12, Yokosuka Mayor Kabaya declared that USS 
Kitty Hawk's replacement by a nuclear-powered carrier (CVN) 
is "inevitable," dropping his previous public opposition. He 
has confided to MOFA that this means he will approve the 
GOJ-funded harbor dredging survey, after the project is 
submitted for his approval around July 18. Kabaya's shift 
has been greeted with more of a shrug than upset by local 
citizens. Country Team is consulting with MOFA on the timing 
and modalities for talks on credible emergency drill 
scenarios and a Navy-city disaster-response mutual aid 
agreement. We expect actual talks to begin sometime this 
fall. 
SDF deployments to Iraq, Indian Ocean 
------------------------------------- 
¶9. (C) While GSDF forces are withdrawing from Iraq, the JASDF 
mission has expanded slightly to provide airlift support to 
coalition forces and UN personnel. JMSDF fueling support in 
the Indian Ocean continues, with the current six-month 
extension of the authorizing legislation due to expire 
November 1. JDA and MOFA officials expect the next Prime 
Minister to authorize a further extension. Your reiteration 
to Japanese counterparts of how valuable these SDF 
deployments have been for our common interests would be most 
helpful. 
Assault on sailors in Fukuoka 
----------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) National media focus has moved beyond the tragic 
murder of a Yokosuka resident by a Kitty Hawk sailor in 
January. The press has largely ignored, however, the severe 
beating of three USS Guardian sailors June 24 in Fukuoka. 
The Embassy and Consulate Fukuoka have pressed the GOJ and 
local police to ensure a thorough investigation. 
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JDA to a Ministry 
----------------- 
¶11. (C) The Japanese Cabinet approved draft legislation this 
month to upgrade the Japan Defense Agency (JDA) to a 
Ministry, but the Diet has postponed discussion on the bill 
until the fall. An upgrade would increase JDA's clout in the 
Cabinet, and enable them to propose legislation without it 
having to be first vetted by the Cabinet Office. Whether 
this would help JDA expand its budget is unclear. Adoption 
of the upgrade bill could hinge on the enthusiasm of the 
Komeito party, junior coalition partner to Koizumi's Liberal 
Democratic Party. Komeito's current leadership, which 
supports the bill, will be replaced in September. 
DONOVAN 
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