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OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #2569 2122217
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 312217Z JUL 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1351
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5497
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7980
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 7887
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1349
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9465
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6704
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0283
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5315
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002569 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2031 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DAMNED IF HE DOES OR DOESN'T: JAMES SOONG FOR MAYOR 
 
 
Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong 
plans to run for Taipei mayor in hopes of exchanging his 
last-minute withdrawal for Kuomintang (KMT) agreement to 
reserve a few races for the PFP in the 2007 Legislative Yuan 
(LY) election.  Soong's popularity is stuck below ten 
percent, and with only twenty-one legislators left, the PFP 
has few other cards to play.  Soong refuses to admit that his 
political star has waned.  PFP legislators increasingly view 
Soong as out of touch, and grow tired of expending energy to 
promote his seemingly doomed mayoral bid.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C)  PFP Public Relations advisor Liao Wen-chang told AIT 
on July 31 that PFP Chairman James Soong believes he has no 
choice but to run for Taipei mayor, even though he has very 
little chance of winning.  Soong's objective is to persuade 
the KMT to set aside perhaps as many as ten legislative races 
for the PFP in the 2007 LY election in return for his 
agreement to drop out of the Taipei race.  Aside from 
withholding PFP cooperation in the LY, Liao explained, Soong 
only has one major bargaining chip left -- the threat of 
dividing the Pan-Blue vote in the all-important Taipei 
mayoral race.  Soong's threat is mostly hollow, however, as 
he did not receive any noticeable bump in popularity after 
leading the recall charge against President Chen, and has yet 
to break the ten-percent mark in public opinion polls.  The 
rumor within the PFP is that the party's own polling results, 
which Soong guards closely, also show Soong's popularity 
stuck in single-digits, Liao confided. 
 
¶3. (U) Over the weekend PFP LY caucus covnener Lu Hsueh-chang 
bravely asserted to the Taiwan press that Soong continues to 
enjoy island-wide support from his days as Taiwan provincial 
governor.  Lu estimated that if Soong ran for president in 
2008, he could pull in at least 300,000 votes.  Lu stated 
publicly that KMT Chairman Ma should allow Soong to represent 
the Pan-Blues in the Taipei mayoral race, instead of 
"forcing" Soong to run against Ma (and to play the "spoiler" 
role) in 2008. 
 
¶4. (C)  Liao, normally a loyal Soong supporter, said the PFP 
chairman sometimes seems "stuck in the past," irrationally 
refusing to accept that his political career is coming to an 
end.  Using habits formed when the PFP had more money and 
greater numbers, Soong refuses to meet with PFP legislators, 
forcing them to communicate with him through intermediaries. 
PFP legislators also resent pressure from Soong to "campaign" 
on his behalf, when they have their own political careers to 
worry about.   Liao closed on a sympathetic note:  Soong is 
doing the best he can under very difficult circumstances to 
prolong the life of his party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (C) The PFP announced in late May that Soong would declare 
his mayoral candidacy no later than June 20.  After that date 
came and went, party representatives then said Soong would 
declare before the end of July.  Taipei City electoral rules 
state that all candidates must register before October 19. 
Soong did not get the boost he hoped for from pushing the 
recall movement against Chen, so he may be angling to make 
another play for the headlines before announcing his 
candidacy.  Soong is purportedly doing all of this to stave 
off the demise of the PFP, but his threat to run against Ma 
in 2008 suggests his real goal is to preserve his own waning 
political power, since the LY elections will be over by 
December 2007.  Unless his poll numbers improve dramatically, 
however, Soong's blackmail strategies are unlikely to work 
against KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who knows that time is not 
on the PFP's side. 
YOUNG