VZCZCXRO1149
RR RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0271/01 1871714
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 061714Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3181
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0033
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1251
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0865
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1042
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016 
TAGS: MARR PREL TN IR
SUBJECT: TONGA'S PROPOSED IRAQ DEPLOYMENT: STATE OF PLAY 
 
REF: SUVA 262 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.5 (B,D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C)  Planning is well under way for a second deployment of 
Tonga Defense Service (TDS) troops to Iraq.  A required step 
is Tonga Defense Board approval.  Reportedly, the Board will 
decide on July 14.  TDS Commander Uta'atu and Foreign/Defense 
Minister Tu'a are enthusiastic.  They presume the King or 
Crown Prince (as Regent) will be, too.  In the past, and 
probably still, that would decide the matter.  However, new 
Prime Minister Sevele, a commoner, has been instituting 
reforms, with the Crown Prince's encouragement, aiming to 
mollify pro-democracy advocates.  Sevele has signaled 
discomfort about the proposed deployment, sensing the Tongan 
public would oppose it.  Uta'atu and, reportedly, Tu'a remain 
confident that traditional power relationships will hold and 
the Board will approve.  The outcome will be an indicator of 
how much actual power has flowed from the palace to the PM in 
recent months.  End Summary. 
 
Deployment decisions and democracy in Tonga 
------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (C)  Tonga's Defense Board is to consider shortly a second 
deployment of a company of TDS troops to Iraq.  The Defense 
Board consists of the King (or his Regent) and the Cabinet, 
with the Commander TDS as secretary.  Traditionally, the 
Defense Minister formally proposes, Cabinet observes, and the 
King decides.  The King supported the previous deployment in 
¶2004.  However, governance in Tonga has since become more 
complicated.  A pro-democracy movement has gained traction. 
The King is old, ailing, and spending most of his time in New 
Zealand.  The Crown Prince, often now Prince Regent, recently 
appointed the first commoner Prime Minister in over a 
century, Fred Sevele.  Sevele has instituted several reforms 
and foresees a more democratic system.  The Crown Prince 
accepts the usefulness of reform, in principle, while 
intending for the monarch to retain a number of royal 
prerogatives, including oversight of the TDS (see reftel). 
 
TDS and Defense Minister on board; Crown Prince interested 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
¶3. (C)  During a June 27-29 visit to Tonga, the Ambassador 
and DATT discussed the proposed Iraq deployment with key 
figures.  TDS Commander Uta'atu, who traveled to Washington, 
Tampa, and Baghdad in April with Foreign/Defense Minister 
Tu'a and the DATT to gauge prospects for the deployment, 
remains fully supportive.  He warned, though, that "the 
politicians" may need further persuasion.  Minister Tu'a was 
away from Tonga during the visit, but Uta'atu said he also 
remains on board.  When we raised the subject with the Crown 
Prince, he understood the arguments for deployment and seemed 
interested; however, he noted that the issue has not yet 
reached the Defense Board so he has not been fully briefed. 
 
PM has serious political doubts 
------------------------------- 
¶4. (C)  When we raised the deployment issue with Prime 
Minister Sevele, he was clearly more up to speed than when we 
had first broached it with him in early April.  At that time 
he appeared somewhat unenthusiastic but admitted he had not 
been briefed.  This time, he informed us that he is troubled 
by the thought of deploying Tongans to Iraq at a time when 
Japan and others are withdrawing their troops.  He is worried 
about intense political fall-out if a Tongan were to become a 
casualty.  He mentioned that "two or three" of his Cabinet 
colleagues also have expressed concerns.  He admitted 
discomfort at so frankly conveying such views, but he said he 
didn't want the USG to be surprised if Tonga, in the end, 
declines to participate again. 
 
Comments: positive decision remains likely, but... 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶5. (C)  The U.S. and the TDS have invested considerable 
effort into ramping up the second TDS deployment.  During our 
meetings last week, we lobbied hard, using the array of 
available arguments.  At this early stage of Tonga's 
democratic evolution, the Monarch retains the power to order 
such a deployment.  Colonel Uta'atu believes "the PM's 
opinion does not have much bearing on the direction of the 
military."  Assuming the Defense Board operates in the 
traditional fashion, Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a will 
propose, nobody will challenge, and the King or the Crown 
Prince as Regent will authorize. 
 
SUVA 00000271  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (C)  PM Sevele's powers are beginning to strengthen, in 
good part because of his close relationship with the Crown 
Prince who wants to co-opt pro-democracy sentiments via 
modest reforms.  There was reportedly great public 
nervousness during the six-month entirety of the first TDS 
Iraq deployment, which resulted in no casualties. 
Pro-democracy advocates would almost certainly attempt to 
capitalize on public nervousness about a second deployment to 
accent dissatisfaction with the monarchy.  The PM's political 
antennae are much more sensitive than those in the royal 
family, but even the royal family is developing a degree of 
sensitivity to "people power" pressure.  They caved to a 
public-service strike last summer.  Given Sevele's clear 
discomfort with the deployment concept, it is likely that he 
will attempt, at least behind the scenes, to influence the 
Defense Board decision negatively. 
 
¶7. (C)  Colonel Uta'atu, aware of some politicians' concerns, 
asked us to attempt to convince PM Sevele of the new 
deployment's merits.  On hearing the PM's worried response, 
Uta'atu met on July 3 with the PM and with Foreign/Defense 
Minister Tu'a (who had by then returned to Tonga).  Uta'atu 
confirmed to Sevele details about the deployment, including 
the training and equipment the USG is preparing to deliver to 
the TDS and the care taken in selecting the deployment's 
location within Iraq, all to help ensure a successful 
outcome.  We are told Uta'atu also stressed the importance of 
the U.S.-Tonga mil-mil relationship and argued the need 
continually to strengthen the bond.  The PM reportedly 
replied that he appreciated Uta'atu's comments, including the 
"criticism." 
 
¶8. (C) Colonel Uta'atu expects the Defense Board to meet July 
14, and he remains confident that the Board will OK the 
deployment.  That is the most likely scenario, but not the 
only possible one these days.  The Board's decision will 
provide a practical signal of just how much, or how little, 
power the PM has attained in Tonga's evolving monarchical 
system. 
DINGER