VZCZCXRO0865
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHSQ #0640/01 1871550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061550Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4888
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 4100
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 2074
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3614
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RHMFIUU/CDR TF FALCON
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA VOTES: OPPOSITION WINS IN GENERALLY CALM 
AND PEACEFUL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: SKOPJE 631 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SKOPJE 00000640  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) The opposition VMRO-DPMNE party emerged as the clear 
winner in Macedonia's July 5 parliamentary elections, with 
the ethnic Albanian DUI party (governing coalition) 
consolidating its lead over rival eAlbanian opposition party 
DPA.  The elections were considered to have "largely met 
international standards, with isolated serious 
irregularities."  The current Prime Minister conceded defeat 
late the night of July 5 and called for a swift transition to 
a new government to take the reins from his SDSM-led 
coalition.  A new government could be formed by late August 
or early September, and is likely to consist of some 
combination of VMRO-DPMNE, DUI, and SDSM-breakaway NSDP.  The 
generally positive assessment of the conduct of the elections 
should clear one major hurdle to the country's progress 
toward NATO membership.  End Summary. 
 
STRONG VICTORY FOR ETHNIC MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION PARTY 
 
¶2. (U) In parliamentary elections July 5, Macedonians voted 
by a sizable margin for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE party, 
expressing clear dissatisfaction with the current SDSM-led 
government due mainly to weak economic performance and high 
unemployment.  With 99.4 percent of polling stations 
reporting, the State Electoral Commission's unofficial 
results give the VMRO-DPMNE-led "For A Better Macedonia" 
coalition 32.5 percent of the vote; the SDSM-led coalition 
"For Macedonia Together" trails with 23.3 percent.  SDSM's 
eAlbanian coalition partner DUI garnered 12.2 percent, while 
opposition DPA received 7.5 percent.  (COMMENT: DUI's win 
signals a strong vote of eAlbanian confidence in DUI 
governance since 2002.  It also is a positive indicator of 
eAlbanians' belief in their future as citizens of Macedonia. 
END COMMENT.)  Opposition VMRO-NP (a VMRO splinter group) 
received 6.1 percent of the vote, while SDSM breakaway NSDP 
also scored 6.1 percent.  Voter turnout was a solid 56.4 
percent (this figure would rise by at least another 10 
percentage points if the approximately 200,000 registered 
voters living overseas were deducted from the voter rolls). 
 
PARTY       VOTES       MP SEATS 
 
VMRO-DPMNE  303,149           44 
SDSM        217,670           32 
DUI         114,300           18 
DPA          70,133           11 
NSDP         56,922            7 
VMRO-NP      57,121            6 
DOM          17,579            1 
PEI          11,437            1 
 
(NOTE: MP seats are calculated using the D'Hondt model of 
apportionment. Small parties in the table are: Democratic 
Renewal of Macedonia (DOM), formerly part of Liberal 
Democrats; Party for a European Future (PEI).  END NOTE.) 
 
CONDUCT OF ELECTIONS: LARGELY MET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, 
WITH ISOLATED IRREGULARITIES 
 
¶3. (SBU) International community (IC -- US, EU, OSCE, NATO) 
observers agreed the election was conducted in a generally 
positive and calm atmosphere, with mostly procedural 
irregularities noted in several areas in the northwest and 
western Macedonia.  Unlike in past elections (2002 
parliamentary, 2005 local) the electoral process was not 
disrupted by confirmed incidents of violence or overt 
intimidation.  Macedonian police provided appropriate and 
effective security at the polling stations.  ODIHR assessed 
the election process as having "largely met international 
standards for clean elections, but with isolated 
irregularities." 
 
SKOPJE 00000640  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Although the beginning of the electoral campaign was 
marred by a number of incidents, some of them violent 
(reftel), the last week of the campaign was generally calm 
and peaceful, a trend that continued through Election Day. 
There were a handful of reports of use of force by party 
supporters, mainly in predominately eAlbanian areas, but none 
resulted in physical injury.  Confirmed instances of ballot 
irregularities were rare.  Embassy officials and local 
observers reported some minor procedural problems, such as 
incidents of family voting and some proxy voting. 
 
PRIME MINISTER CONCEDES DEFEAT, CALLS FOR RAPID TRANSITION 
 
¶5. (SBU) PM Buckovski phoned VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski 
shortly before midnight on July 5 to congratulate him on his 
electoral win.  He also called for a smooth and rapid 
transition to keep Macedonia's reform process on track. 
VMRO-DPMNE held a large celebration in Skopje's central 
square on election night, but there was no overt triumphalist 
tone in Gruevski's victory speech, which described the 
elections as a win for Macedonia.  DUI leader Ahmeti publicly 
stated his satisfaction with the outcome, while DPA 
Vice-President Menduh Thaci was the exception, denying that 
the elections had been fully free and fair.  Thaci claimed 
that DPA had in fact won the largest percentage of the 
eAlbanian vote, if electoral results disputed by DPA were 
deducted from the DUI total.  Thaci called for re-runs in 
several areas where DPA activists believed DUI had engaged in 
blatant ballot stuffing (although such claims were not 
confirmed by ODIHR observers). 
 
WHAT NEXT? FORMING THE GOVERNMENT 
 
¶6. (U) According to the Macedonian Constitution and 
parliamentary rulebook, the speaker or acting speaker of the 
parliament must call a constitutive session of the parliament 
not later than 20 days after the elections (in this case, by 
July 25) to verify the mandates of at least two-thirds of the 
new MPs.  The newly-constituted parliament then elects a new 
speaker.  Within 10 days of calling the parliamentary session 
(by August 4), the President must entrust the mandate to form 
the next government to the leader of the party or parties 
that won the most seats in the election.  The "mandator" then 
has 20 days to propose the composition of a new government 
and its work program (by August 24).  The newly-elected 
speaker  has no more than 15 days after receiving the 
proposed government and work program (by September 8) to call 
a parliamentary session to elect the new government and 
approve the work program.  In short, a new government is 
likely to be to be formed by the first week of September, and 
to be sworn in shortly thereafter. 
 
DOING THE MATH: POSSIBLE COALITION COMBINATIONS 
 
¶7. (SBU) Given the current electoral results, the following 
coalition combinations are possible (at least 61 seats are 
required in the 120-seat unicameral parliament to form a 
government), in descending order of probability: 
 
a.) VMRO-DPMNE/DUI/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 71 seats 
 
Comment: Strong majority.  DPA, not DUI, is VMRO-DPMNE's 
"natural" coalition partner.  DUI, however, clearly is the 
most popular eAlbanian party.  In addition, unlike DPA, DUI 
did not campaign on making additional demands for Framework 
Agreement-related implementation, so this arrangement could 
be advantageous for DPMNE in terms of working relations with 
an eAlbanian party. 
 
b.) VMRO-DPMNE/DPA/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 64 seats 
 
Comment: Weak majority and unstable coalition.  NSDP could 
easily be tempted, if the SDSM leadership changes, into 
 
SKOPJE 00000640  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
rejoining the Social Democratic Union fold, raising chances 
of a successful no-confidence vote. 
 
c.) VMRO-DPMNE/DPA/VMRO-NP/NSDP/DOM/PEI = 70 seats 
 
Comment: Strong majority, but VMRO-NP will work to undercut 
rival VMRO-DPMNE, resulting in intra-coalition turmoil. 
Gruevski and VMRO-NP informal leader Georgievski are bitter 
personal rivals.  Additionally, NSDP would still be a wild 
card, prone to realigning with SDSM if there is a leadership 
change in that party. 
 
d.) SDSM/DUI/VMRO-NP/NSDP = 63 
 
Comment: A possible coalition without VMRO-DPMNE.  It would 
occur only if VMRO-DPMNE could not woo enough coalition 
partners to form a majority government.  A weak coalition, 
this government would face an embittered VMRO-DPMNE and/and 
DPA opposition who would strive to thwart any legislation 
requiring a 2/3 majority (constitutional changes) or 
qualified (Badinter) majority. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. (SBU) With minor exceptions, all of the parties involved 
in the elections exercised restraint and responsible 
leadership on election day, allowing for the 
better-than-expected international assessment of the 
electoral conduct.  As such, the elections will help the 
country overcome one of its main NATO MAP-related hurdles. 
Finally, Buckovski's gracious concession speech demonstrated 
political maturity and should help smooth the path to 
formation of a new government.  Macedonia now faces its next 
challenge, as the parties jockey for position before the 
horsetrading that will precede the formation of the next 
government. 
MILOVANOVIC