VZCZCXRO8324
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0631/01 1841645
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 031645Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4877
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR TF FALCON
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3611
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 2071
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 4097
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/04/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: CAMPAIGN CALM EXTENDS THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND 
 
REF: SKOPJE 625 
 
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶1. (C) Continuing a recent campaign-period trend (reftel), 
the July 1-2 weekend remained calm in Macedonia with only two 
minor campaign-related incidents reported (neither of which 
was substantiated.)  The MOI took action against perpetrators 
of campaign-related incidents, and eAlbanian parties DUI and 
DPA (with EU, OSCE, and US Embassy/ICITAP support) 
coordinated on security issues related to their separate 
rallies July 3 in Tetovo.  In separate phone calls to the DUI 
and DPA leaders, the Ambassador noted the positive turn of 
events, urged further security coordination between the two, 
and called for continued restraint on the part of their 
supporters. 
 
¶2. (C) President Crvenkovski outlined concerns regarding 
opposition plans for a "premature victory" rally in downtown 
Skopje on election night, a concern the Ambassador raised 
with VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski on June 29.  Gruevski told 
the Ambassador he expects his coalition will win 12-15 more 
MP seats than the rival governing SDSM-headed coalition. 
Intense media coverage of the handful of campaign-related 
incidents, a few of them violent, has created a skewed image 
of a campaign as seriously marred by violent incidents.  In 
fact, the overall number of incidents has been small and 
geographically limited, with only a few incidents resulting 
in injuries to persons.  End Summary. 
 
CAMPAIGN CALM CONTINUES OVER WEEKEND 
 
¶3. (U) Following a week of campaign calm during which no new 
campaign-related incidents were reported in Macedonia 
(reftel), the July 1-2 weekend in Macedonia remained 
generally calm.  There were only two unsubstantiated 
allegations, both by opposition VMRO-DPMNE, of 
campaign-related incidents.  In one, VMRO-DPMNE claimed 
several activists were attacked by supporters of the 
governing SDSM; in the second, the party claimed that one of 
its local HQs in downtown Skopje was vandalized by unknown 
perpetrators. 
 
MINISTRY OF INTERIOR TAKING ACTION AGAINST PERPETRATORS OF 
CAMPAIGN-RELATED INCIDENTS 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Macedonian police continued to investigate and 
charge suspects in earlier cases of campaign-related 
incidents. By the weekend, they had forwarded criminal 
charges against 14 individuals, and misdemeanor charges 
against 13 persons.  MOI sources told us they expected to 
bring misdemeanor charges against another 10 or 12 
individuals for campaign-related incidents before the July 5 
Election Day. 
 
E-ALBANIAN PARTIES COORDINATE ON SECURITY FOR JULY 3 RALLY IN 
TETOVO 
 
¶5. (SBU) Following a planning meeting between the Tetovo 
police chief and international community (IC - EUMM, OSCE, 
DOJ-ICITAP) police advisers on June 30 (reftel), the 
Secretaries General of ethnic Albanian DUI (governing 
 
SIPDIS 
coalition partner) and DPA (opposition) met with the police 
chief to coordinate logistics and planning for the July 3 
evening rallies both parties will hold in Tetovo. 
 
¶6. (SBU) As agreed at the June 30 meeting, the DUI and DPA 
officials held a press conference in Tetovo on July 2, 
together with the Tetovo police chief, in which they 
underscored their commitment to coordinating and 
deconflicting the two rallies to lower chances that 
supporters from either side would clash with groups from the 
other.  On July 3, the IC police advisers again met with the 
 
SKOPJE 00000631  002 OF 003 
 
 
Tetovo police chief to review contingency planning for the 
two events, after which the DUI and DPA General Secretaries 
were expected to meet with the chief of police a final time 
for last-minute coordination. 
 
AMBASSADOR CALLS DUI AND DPA LEADERS, URGES CONTINUED 
RESTRAINT 
 
¶7. (C) The Ambassador called DUI leader Ahmeti and DPA leader 
Xhaferi July 3 to note the recent positive turn of events, 
including the July 2 joint DUI-DPA press conference, and to 
urge them to continue to coordinate on security matters up 
until and after Election Day.  She told Ahmeti, however, that 
a recent appearance by former UCK commander Samedin Zhezair 
(aka the Hoxha of Prizren, Kosovo) on local TV calling on DUI 
supporters to rise up and support Ahmeti, and a statement by 
one of Ahmeti's lieutenants offering to go toe-to-toe with 
DPA supporters over a recent violent incident (reftel), had 
been damaging and counterproductive.  She asked Ahmeti to 
direct his supporters to tone down their public comments. 
The Ambassador also advised both leaders to consider 
confining their known troublemakers to party HQs on Election 
Day to further reduce the likelihood of clashes. 
 
PRESIDENT: CONCERNS ABOUT OPPOSITION'S RUMORED PLAN FOR 
"PREMATURE" VICTORY RALLY ON E-DAY 
 
¶8. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador June 29, President 
Crvenkovski said he believed recent IC actions (reftel) had 
helped prevent further campaign-related incidents.  He 
expressed concern, however, about a rumored rally VMRO-DPMNE 
planned to hold on Skopje's city square the evening of July 5 
to "celebrate" their victory before the official results were 
announced.  He also was concerned about the eAlbanian 
tradition of firing shots into the air to celebrate victories 
or protest results prior to the release of the official 
voting figures.  The ideal, he said, would be to avoid 
rallies or demonstrations for 24 hours after the election 
polls closed, or until the official results were announced. 
(NOTE: An adviser in Prime Minister Buckovski's office also 
raised with us on June 30 concerns that VMRO-DPMNE might try 
to hold a Ukrainian-style "orange revolution" rally on July 5 
if the results show anything other than a VMRO-DPMNE victory. 
 The Ambassador told VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski during her 
June 29 meeting with him (see below) that it would be best to 
wait until the official results are known before celebrating. 
END NOTE.) 
 
OPPOSITION VMRO-DPMNE LEADER GRUEVSKI CALM AND COLLECTED 
 
¶9. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador June 29, opposition 
VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski told the Ambassador he would 
accept the election outcome if there were "no strong 
irregularities" that would change the final election results. 
 He was concerned, however, that SDSM was rumored to be 
recruiting "muscle" for some undefined purpose, presumably to 
carry out acts of provocation or intimidation on Election 
Day.  Gruevski acknowledged that campaigning on both sides 
had gotten "tougher" in recent days, with more personal 
attack ads. He hoped to return to more substantive campaign 
themes before the end of the campaign (midnight on July 3). 
 
¶10. (C) Gruevski estimated his coalition would win 12-15 more 
MPs than SDSM's coalition, and that turnout would be 
somewhere between 65 and 70 percent.  He did not rule out a 
coalition with either DPA or DUI, and also said his party had 
"good relations" with SDSM breakaway NSDP and with the DOM 
party, a splinter group of the Liberal Democrats.  It would 
be harder to include rival VMRO-Narodna, headed by former PM 
Georgievski.  Gruevski also noted that VMRO-DPMNE had 
coordinated with SDSM concerning rally times and locations, 
and that there had been only a single serious incident 
(campaign-related, but not connected to any rally) between 
supporters of the two parties during the 3-week campaign. 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000631  003 OF 003 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶11. (C) Intense local media focus on a handful of serious 
campaign incidents, some of them violent, has presented a 
skewed picture of a badly marred campaign.  In fact, 
documented incidents were localized and few in number, 
occurring in three of Macedonia's 84 municipalities and 
involving violence that resulted in injuries in only 3 or 4 
cases.  To date, DUI has held over 350 major and minor 
campaign events, DPA over 150 major events, VMRO-DPMNE 97 
major events, and SDSM 135 or more events; with a few rare 
exceptions, all of these 700  events have taken place without 
incident. 
MILOVANOVIC