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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LG
SUBJECT: PM'S CHIEF OF STAFF ON LATVIAN POLITICAL SCENE 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey.  Reason: 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Latvia's October elections should produce a 
politial alignment similar to the coalition currently in 
office, although the nationalist Fatherland and Freedom could 
significantly increase its seats, according to the PM's chief 
of staff, Jurgis Liepnieks.  Liepnieks, a consummate 
political animal, sketched his views on the domestic 
political scene in a meeting with pol/econ chief.  He thought 
Aivars Lembergs would be a candidate for Prime Minister but 
would not get the job and would not settle for a lesser post. 
 Although colored a bit by a seeming desire to tell us what 
he thought we wanted to hear, Liepnieks provided a good 
overview of the Latvian domestic political scene three months 
before elections.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Pol/econ chief met with the PM's chief of staff and 
chief political advisor, Jurgis Liepnieks, June 30.  Although 
this was a first meeting, there were no introductory 
pleasantries.  Liepnieks had arrayed on a table in front of 
him a number of spiral bound volumes, which turned out to be 
the latest internal polling data for the Prime Minister's 
People's Party (TP).  Liepnieks immediately pointed to an 
open book and said, "Look at this, Aivars Lembergs (Ventspils 
mayor, currently under indictment for corruption) is the most 
popular politician in Latvia."  He then proceeded to show 
that in Latvia overall, as well as in three of the five 
regions, Lembergs was at the top in survey's on politicians' 
popularity.  In the other two regions, noted Latvian composer 
and TP Member of Parliament Raimonds Pauls tops the list.  In 
the Latvia-wide survey , others at the top of the list after 
Lembergs and Pauls were former Foreign Minister Sandra 
Kalniete (New Era (JL)), current Foreign Minister Artis 
Pabriks (TP), and Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis (TP). 
Liepnieks also pointed out his political patron, former PM 
Andris Skele (TP), about halfway down the list and former PM 
Einars Repse (JL) about two-thirds of the way down.  (Note: 
The poll did not include President Vike-Freiberga.  Liepnieks 
did not provide exact polling figures for any individual, nor 
did he provide date of the survey or methodology information. 
 End note.) 
 
¶3. (C) Turning to the October parliamentary elections, 
Liepnieks said the two parties to watch were the First Party 
(LPP) and nationalist Fatherland and Freedom (TB).  With LPP, 
the question was whether they could clear the five percent 
threshold to remain in Parliament.  TB, he thought was the 
real wild card.  Currently with seven seats, they could stay 
in the same range or pick up as many as 20 seats.  (Note: TB 
was the big winner in the 2004 European Parliament elections, 
taking four of Latvia's eight seats, when turnout was low. 
End note.) 
 
¶4. (C) In the election campaign, Liepnieks though that the 
major Latvian parties would run on the following issues: TP 
would focus on results achieved while it was in government; 
JL would run on an anti-corruption platform; TB would run a 
nationalist campaign; the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS) 
would run on Lembergs' name; and LPP would run on an anti-gay 
rights platform.  Even with these issues formally setting the 
agenda, Liepnieks expected a personality-based campaign, with 
heavily negative attack ads framing much of the real 
political debate.  In the end, Liepnieks assessed, TP, JL, 
and ZZS would win about 20 seats each, with another 15 - 20 
divided between LPP and TB.  The remaining seats in 
parliament would be divided among the ethnic Russian or 
leftist parties, whom Liepnieks basically dismissed as 
irrelevant.  This predicted outcome, he said, should allow 
for a coalition similar to the current government.  Liepnieks 
hoped, of course, that Kalvitis would contiune as Prime 
Minister. 
 
¶5. (C) Liepnieks assessed that foreign policy would play 
little or no role in the elections, with the exception of 
relations with Russia, but even that would be a minor issue. 
There is political consensus in Latvia on the value of 
relations with the U.S., even among the ethnic Russian 
parties, he said.  In his view, Latvia's deployment in Iraq 
would not be an election issue and no matter the outcome of 
the election, renewing the mandate for the deployment in 
December would not be difficult.  (Comment: He is far too 
sanguine on these points, in our view.  End comment.) 
 
¶6. (C) Returning to the issue of Lembergs, Liepnieks thought 
that he would not be on the ZZS ticket for parliament, but 
that they would announce that he would be their candidate for 
PM.  (Note: ZZS began floating this idea in the press July 5 
and former PM Emsis (ZZS) told us this would be the party's 
strategy.  End note).  No major party in Latvia has ever done 
this and Liepnieks wondered how voters would react to not 
have the candidate for PM actually on the ballot.  No matter 
the outcome, he said, the other major parties would simply 
not agree to join a government with Lembergs as Prime 
 
RIGA 00000527  002 OF 002 
 
 
Minister.  Asked if ZZS might insist on another ministry for 
Lembergs as a condition for joining government, Liepnieks 
discounted that possibility, saying Lembergs was not willing 
to take the inevitable hits to his personal popularity that 
come with a government role unless he could have the top job. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Liepnieks is a purely political animal, 
telling p/e chief at one point that if we had questions about 
policy issues to see the PM's foreign policy advisor, but 
that he would always be willing to talk "personalities and 
politics" with us.  Throughout the conversation, Liepnieks 
was animated, almost jittery, and constantly sketching 
possible political scenarios on paper and in his head.  Our 
relationship with him has been difficult at times.  He is a 
significant source of leaks from the PM's office, all 
designed to score political points, and we sometimes 
deliberately work around him on sensitive issues.  We take 
his political assessments with a grain of salt.  We don't 
doubt his understanding of Latvian politics, but believe he 
was spinning things a bit in the direction he thought we 
would want to hear.  Certainly, his views on the alleged ease 
of renewing the Iraq mandate in December strike us as overly 
optimistic.  However, his assessment of the main platform 
issues of the parties and the negative nature of the campaign 
track with what we are hearing elsewhere.  Lembergs is the 
major wild card in the election given his personal popularity 
and it is likely that Liepnieks' almost casual dismissal of 
Lembergs playing any role in government was designed to 
reassure himself as much as us. 
Bailey