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UNCLAS QUITO 001867 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: CANDIDATE POSITION PROFILE 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:   In Ecuador,s presidential race, only two 
of the four front runners have concrete political platforms. 
Leon Roldos and Rafael Correa present well-defined stances on 
the issues.  Correa,s stance is particularly anti-U.S. 
Cynthia Viteri and the PRIAN/PRI alliance have not yet 
defined clearly their positions on many issues.  Roldos and 
Correa would not renew the FOL-Manta agreement after 2009. 
Viteri leaves open the possibility for renegotiation after 
2009, perhaps as leverage in FTA negotiations.  End Summary. 
 
RED-ID: Leon Roldos)No ATPDEA, No FOL (23-29% in Polls) 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Center-left candidate Leon Roldos (RED-ID) has a well 
developed website with an eight-page platform that is 
balanced with aspirational language and specific 
prescriptions.  On external debt, Roldos would continue 
paying but not increase the level of the overall debt.  He 
proposes to deposit debt service money into a fund, inviting 
creditors to pick a range of social programs using the fund 
as a way of paying off the debt.  He has an eight point plan 
to arrive at his goal of 6% economic growth each year. 
 
¶3.  (U) While Roldos remains open to international trade 
agreements, especially regional, he would put any FTA with 
the U.S. to a plebiscite.  Roldos says that he would not 
renew the Manta FOL agreement after it expires in 2009. 
Going further in a recent interview, however, Rolodos said 
that if the U.S. Congress fails to renew trade preferences 
(ATPDEA) set to expire in December 2006, the GOE should shut 
down the FOL.  Finally, Roldos says he would demand 
indemnification from the U.S. and Colombia for the supposed 
effects of Plan Colombia, including expensive troop 
mobilization to the border, health and property losses, and 
refugee integration and repatriation. 
 
¶4. (U) An interesting and unique feature of his campaign 
documents is the emphasis on the Ecuadorian migrant vote -- 
eligible to vote in these elections for the first time.  His 
website has a prominent tab on the home page for migrants, 
explaining how they can vote outside of Ecuador.  His 
platform includes a section on migrants, guaranteeing voting 
rights and establishing a government bureau within the 
Presidency to define migrant policy.  The other campaigns 
mention migrant issues but do not focus with the same depth 
and emphasis of the Roldos campaign. 
 
PSC: Cynthia Viteri,s Views Unclear (16-17% in Polls) 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Center-right candidate Cynthia Viteri,s (PSC) 
campaign platform lacks substance and direction.  On her 
website, Viteri outlines her positions in blurbs of two or 
three sentences on the frequently asked questions link.  She 
fails to take a specific position on FTA, saying she would 
have negotiated better but is not opposed to the &opening of 
the world.8  On oil policy, she calls for an investigation 
of all oil contracts and the percentages and prices 
negotiated at the time of the contract.  If the contract 
allows caducity as a remedy for breach, it should be applied. 
 
¶6.  (U) Viteri promises to pay Ecuador,s external debt but 
draws an analogy between Ecuador,s situation and what &we 
housewives8 would do:  if the choice is between paying debt 
and eating, housewives will choose to pay for food.  Viteri 
does not mention any specific ideas on Colombian relations 
other than pointing out the high cost of Ecuador,s military 
mobilization, supposed health effects of glyphosate spraying, 
and the social effects of Columbian refugees.  Viteri, in a 
recent press interview, said she would honor the Manta FOL 
agreement until it expires in 2009, and would only 
renegotiate if it benefits Ecuador.  She also expressed 
interest in a possible return to FTA talks. 
 
¶7.  (U) Although flashy and full of high-quality photos, 
Viteri,s website fails to address any substantive issues. 
Links for her &Work Plan8 reveal empty pages in the 
categories of Economy, Work, Education, Security, 
Environment, and Health.  Similarly, the &News8 link is 
also blank. 
 
 
Correa,s Anti-American Plan No Surprise (11% in Polls) 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Far-left presidential candidate Rafael Correa 
(Leftist PAIS) presents the most voluminous prescription for 
government in his 44-paged, rhetoric filled manifesto.  The 
document is littered with phrases and words such as &radical 
change8 and &revolution8 to emphasize its sweeping nature, 
and proposes a constitutional convention to overhaul the 
central government. 
 
¶9.  (U) Aside from the rhetoric, Correa,s views are very 
predictable.  If elected, he would neither negotiate nor sign 
an FTA, calls for the integration of Latin America, and 
associates himself with Chavez, Morales, Kirchner, Lula da 
Silva, Vasquez, and Bachelet ) all of whom he claims were 
elected as backlash to the Washington Consensus.  Garcia and 
Uribe are noticeably absent from Correa,s grand South 
America affinity. 
 
¶10.  (U) Correa calls for energy integration in the region, 
particularly with Venezuela.  If elected, he says he would go 
further than the current changes to Ecuador,s Hydrocarbons 
Law by &redistributing8 all petroleum profits using as a 
point of reference Texaco,s margins in the 70s and 80s.  He 
would embark on land reform, review all electrical supply 
contracts, obligate all pharmacies and hospitals to offer 
generic drugs, refuse any international arbitration in any 
area, strengthen state business organizations like 
Petroecuador, and impose a moratorium on oil drilling in the 
Amazon. 
 
¶11.  (U) With respect to external debt, Correa says that his 
administration would never accept any conditions for 
additional debt and never pay more for debt service than what 
the budget disburses for social programs or national defense. 
 Finally, on the Manta FOL, he says he would not tolerate any 
foreign soldiers on Ecuadorian soil, but would allow the 
agreement to run its course until 2009. 
 
PRIAN/PSP Reprise 
----------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) The alliance between the PRIAN and PSP has yet to 
produce a candidate.  It represents an interesting twist 
reminiscent of the two parties, alliance in early 2005 
attempting to salvage the Gutierrez presidency,s 
governability.  In the realm of ideas, both parties have yet 
to formalize much of a platform.  Gutierrez,s personal 
website has a bulleted list of vague promises under three 
headings and the PRIAN webpage is similarly vague.  The PSP 
website is mostly populist rhetoric with few specific plans 
for government.  It does specify dollarization and the Manta 
FOL as two grave violations of national sovereignty. 
Noboa,s personal website has an extensive platform focusing 
mostly on social issues.  While not mentioning Manta or 
Colombia policy, it specifies that any FTA negotiated with 
the U.S. must protect Ecuadorian agriculture. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Gutierrez and Noboa have not made many public 
pronouncements on any substantive issues of interest to the 
U.S.  Gutierrez has concentrated mostly on his struggle in 
the courts to be an eligible candidate.  Similarly, Noboa has 
been focusing on whether to run.  Privately, PRIAN deputy 
Vicente Taiano assured PolOffs that his party lamented the 
failure of the FTA, the expulsion of Occidental Petroleum, 
and was generally aligned with the U.S. on all major issues. 
Gutierrez, whose government launched the FTA talks,  has 
privately expressed similar views to us. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) All eyes are on the PRIAN/PSP alliance.  As these 
two parties focus on personalities and populism, they may not 
come out with a precise political platform.  Viteri seems to 
be remaining vague on the issues so that she can maximize 
freedom in her increasingly nervous search for a vice 
presidential candidate, minimize undecided voter alienation, 
and keep her charisma more than anything else at the fore. 
Roldos and Correa are already well defined on the issues.  In 
the next two weeks there will be three things to watch: 
whether Viteri is successful finding a credible vice 
presidential candidate; any movement in undecided voters; 
and, whether the PRIAN/PSP names strong candidates by August 
¶15. 
BROWN