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71639
2006-07-18 00:21:00
06MEXICO3953
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO3832
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TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 003953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
SUBJECT: AT MASS RALLY, LOPEZ OBRADOR CALLS FOR CIVIL 
DISOBEDIENCE  
REF: MEXICO 3832 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL CHIEF ALAN MELTZER, REASONS: 1.4(B/D). 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: On Sunday, July 16, Party of the 
Democratic Revolution (PRD) presidential candidate Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) presided over a mass march and 
"informational meeting" at which he demanded a complete, 
nationwide recount of the results of the Mexican presidential 
election.  Estimates of the attendance at the event ranged 
from 300,000 to 1.5 million.  During the rally, AMLO called 
for a campaign of peaceful civic disobedience -- the details 
of which will be decided later today -- to demonstrate the 
insistence of his supporters on a complete vote recount.  He 
also called on his supporters to conduct vigils outside the 
300 district offices of the Federal Electoral Institute 
(IFE), allegedly to prevent tampering with the ballot boxes 
being stored there.  AMLO urged his supporters to attend in 
even greater numbers another march and rally scheduled for 
Sunday, July 30.  A PRD contact confirmed that AMLO had no 
intention of standing down unless the electoral tribunal 
(TEPJF) conducts the nationwide recount he demands.  End 
summary. 
 
A Million Man March? 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) On Sunday, July 16, AMLO led a mass march of 
supporters down Paseo la Reforma, Mexico City's leading 
thoroughfare, terminating in a vast rally in the city's 
Zocalo, or central square.  The PRD-led Mexico City 
Department of Public Security estimated the crowd at 1.1 
million, although other estimates of the crowd ranged from 
300,000 (MSNBC) to 700,000 (Notimex) to 1.5 million (the 
President of the PRD).  Although the actual turnout is likely 
to remain in dispute, by all accounts the turnout was 
considerably heavier than at last week's event (ref A), which 
was estimated at between 150,000-280,000.  According to press 
reports, what may have been the largest crowd in Mexico City 
history maintained a festive air, and no incidents of 
violence were reported.  A PRD contact characterized the 
event as a great success, noting that the demonstration was 
legal and peaceful, and carried out so as to cause as little 
inconvenience as possible in the city. 
 
AMLO Calls His Supporters to Action 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) In his half-hour long remarks, AMLO called on his 
supporters to "defend the inalienable right of the people to 
freely elect their leaders."  Reeling off a litany of alleged 
campaign violations and irregularities, AMLO demanded that 
the TEPJF order a nationwide recount, "vote by vote, ballot 
box by ballot box."  He called on rival Felipe Calderon "to 
act in a responsible manner and to accept, without any 
pretexts" a nationwide recount.  He added: "I recommend to 
you that for your own sake, for the sake of your relatives, 
for the sake of your closest supporters, I recommend that you 
realize that...the consummation of a fraudulent election 
cannot be erased...."  He warned that a complete recount was 
essential for the political economic and financial stability 
of the country. 
 
¶4.  (U) In support of this demand, AMLO unveiled a 
three-pronged strategy.  First, he called on his supporters 
to undertake continuous vigils outside IFE's 300 district 
offices, allegedly to prevent tampering with the ballot boxes 
being stored there.  He added that these vigils would serve 
as centers of information and decision-making for his cause. 
Second, he called on his supporters to begin a strategy of 
peaceful civil disobedience, starting this week.  He said he 
would form a citizens' committee to decide on the nature of 
such acts of civil disobedience.  Finally, he called upon his 
supporters to return to Mexico City on Sunday, July 30, for a 
third mass march and "informational meeting;" he challenged 
his supporters to work to bring twice as many participants to 
the next rally. 
 
¶5.  (U) According to a PRD contact, AMLO is meeting July 17 
with those civil society members who will form the so-called 
citizens' committee that will decide on a strategy of 
peaceful civil disobedience, to be announced in a press 
conference.  Our contact said AMLO would not be satisfied if 
the TEPJF decided only to recount the votes in the 
approximately 50,000 precincts which he specifically 
contested.  She said that he planned to continue the protests 
until the TEPJF undertook a complete, nationwide recount, 
adding that if the TEPJF failed to order such a recount, the 
 
country risked becoming ungovernable. 
 
Comment:  AMLO Has Momentum...For Now 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  If any observers were beginning to wonder whether 
AMLO's election protest was losing steam, Sunday's huge 
turnout should put those doubts to rest, at least until his 
next rally.  At this point, the real question is what AMLO's 
next move will be once the TEPJF finally rules, as it seems 
clear he will not be happy with any result that leaves 
Calderon the victor.  There is no question that AMLO enjoys 
the loyalty of a hard core of true believers who will not 
desert him readily, although such true believers probably 
represent but a fraction of those present at Sunday's rally; 
they are probably too few in numbers and in resources to 
sustain AMLO's protest on their own.  AMLO currently also 
enjoys the public support -- whether or not enthusiastic -- 
of the PRD's hierarchy and officeholders.  Nevertheless, as 
the second force in Congress -- and as the party to have 
grown most in the recent elections -- the PRD has a 
considerable incentive to work within the system. 
Maintaining the support of the PRD hierarchy -- and the 
resources it has at its disposal -- in the face of an adverse 
TEPJF ruling will likely be AMLO's greatest challenge. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA