VZCZCXRO0975
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHLI #1449/01 1981631
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171631Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4991
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001449 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR TFLE01 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: MIDEAST CRISIS:  PORTUGAL CONCERNED BUT NEUTRAL 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Since July 14, Portuguese government 
officials have made public comments lamenting the crisis in 
the Middle East and reassuring the Portuguese public that the 
violence will not affect Portugal, but has scrupulously 
avoided taking sides.  Leftist Portuguese political leaders, 
however, criticized both the GOP and Europe in general for 
"following the U.S. lead" and "not doing enough."  Portugal 
will likely continue to follow the EU's strategy and focus on 
ensuring safe evacuation for its citizens.  End summary. 
 
------------------------ 
Concern over Instability 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Both Portuguese President Cavaco Silva and Foreign 
Minister Amado have expressed concern about the violence and 
called for an international resolution to the crisis.  (All 
quotes below are informal translations.) 
 
-- "It is very dangerous for the world.  The level of 
conflict that has been reached in the Middle East is truly 
worrying and I hope the international community quickly 
exerts the necessary pressure upon all parties involved to 
make them resume negotiations."   - President Anibal Cavaco 
Silva, July 15 
 
-- "We have been following with great concern the situation 
in the Middle East resulting from the conflict between the 
State of Israel and the Hezbollah movement and we repudiate 
the escalation of violence because it endangers innocent 
civilian lives."   - Foreign Minister Luis Amado, July 16 
 
-- "Naturally we support the diplomatic efforts being 
developed by several sectors of the international community 
with a view to re-establishing dialogue and an agreement to 
put an end to this escalation.  We have been following the 
efforts of the Finnish EU Presidency and we identify with the 
EU's diplomatic solution to this conflict.  We are also 
concerned - and the Secretary of State for the (Portuguese) 
communities has been following throughout the day - with the 
situation of the Portuguese caught in the middle of this 
conflict, be they tourists or emigrants."   -FM Luis Amado, 
July 17 
 
------------------ 
Impact on Portugal 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U)  Prime Minister Socrates and Finance Minister 
Teixeira's have focused on how events could affect Portugal's 
economy and citizens: 
 
-- "Portuguese citizens currently in Lebanon are well aware 
of the situation.  The contingency plans and conditions to 
have (Portuguese citizens) return to Portugal have been 
created."   - PM Jose Socrates, July 15 
 
-- "We regard the latest events and the consequent increase 
in fuel prices with concern, but we have no reason to fear 
that this could undermine the growth of the Portuguese 
economy."   - Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, 
July 15 
 
----------------------------- 
Leftist Politicians Criticize 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) While the GOP has refrained from passing judgment on 
either the Hezbollah or Israel, leftist political parties 
have strongly condemned Israel's actions and the GOP's lack 
of censure. 
 
-- "The PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) condemns the Zionist 
Government of Israel and demands the end of the criminal 
escalation of violence that is causing numerous victims (() 
and dragging all the Middle East into a conflict of even more 
vast and dangerous proportions." 
 - Official PCP communique, July 14 
 
-- "I am sure we will not hear this Foreign Minister say 
anything because he will comply with whatever the U.S. has to 
say."  - PCP Leader Jeronimo de Sousa, July 16 
 
-- "The situation in Israel is crossed by rivers of 
Palestinian blood and for one single reason which is the 
richness of oil.  That is why the U.S. wanted to occupy Iraq, 
and that is why it now threatens Iran. 
 
"The savagery that is now taking place in the frontiers of 
Israel with Palestine and Lebanon is authorized, promoted, 
 
LISBON 00001449  002 OF 002 
 
 
and encouraged by the U.S. President George W. Bush. 
 
"Europe, who has remained silent, should play a role to 
defend those countries and to prevent war."     - Left Bloc 
Leader Francisco Louca, July 15. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  We suspect that GOP leaders will continue to walk a 
fine line on this issue, appealing  for a negotiated solution 
to the crisis in the Middle East and avoiding blaming either 
side for the current violence, while continuing to profess 
solidarity with the EU position.  Criticism of Israel and the 
U.S. by the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left 
Bloc will continue, but will have little effect on GOP 
policy, as those parties represent such a small percentage of 
Portugal's population (the PCP holds 12 of Parliament's 230 
seats, and the Left Bloc holds eight.) By contrast, 
Portugal's two main political parties -- the left-of-center 
PS and the right of center PSD (who together control 196 
Parliamentary seats) -- have said nothing about the crisis; 
their websites convey positions on a range of current events 
but do not mention the fighting in Israel and Lebanon. 
O'Neal