VZCZCXRO3983
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2774/01 1911210
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101210Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5694
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002774 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
FOR NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION 
RETURNS SHOWS 60 PERCENT OF REGISTERED WOMEN VOTED 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 2602 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 2600 
 
Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF)  Summary and Comment:  Kuwaiti news media reported 
that only 35% of eligible women voted in the June 29 
Parliamentary elections.  Post's statistical analysis puts 
the number at approximately 60%.  Although Islamists made 
gains in the National Assembly, a close look at the voting 
numbers shows that women defied expectations that they would 
vote in a more pro-Islamist way.  In some districts they 
displayed a more liberal leaning.  And even where their 
voting helped Islamist candidates, it is not clear whether 
these were votes for Islamism or votes for reform, since the 
Islamists favor reforming Kuwait's electoral districts.  The 
election results could be used to support the theory that 
women voted according to their male relatives' wishes, though 
alternative explanations could also explain the similarity in 
men's and women's voting.  Only a qualitative study of 
voters' behavior could lend any weight to this theory. 
Election statistics confirm that the size of the current 
electoral districts opens the possibility of electoral 
corruption, though the extent to which this happened is not 
known.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
 
Women's Participation Underreported 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Kuwaiti media sources reported, presumably based 
on information from government sources, that 35% of women 
participated in the June 29 parliamentary elections.  Post 
reported this figure in reftels, but noted that its onsite 
observations suggested that 35% was too low.  Several Kuwaiti 
Arabic dailies subsequently printed detailed tables of the 
voting, broken down by polling station.  Since polling 
stations were gender-segregated, the numbers give exact 
results as to how many men and women voted.  Post performed a 
data analysis of the information as published and found that 
the original figure of 35% grossly underreported the number 
of women who voted.  (Note: the numbers contained minor 
inconsistencies, but give an accurate general picture.  End 
Note.)  The 194,910 women who were registered to vote cast 
199,373 votes.  Each voter can vote for up to two candidates. 
 Assuming that each woman voted for two candidates, this 
would put participation at 51%. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF)  A significant number of voters only vote for one 
candidate if they do not want to give any of his or her 
competitors votes, and some women cast empty ballots either 
in protest or in error.  Figures on the numbers who voted for 
fewer than two candidates have only been made available for 
several districts.  In district 1, 14% of people voted this 
way, while in district 4, the only district where a higher 
percentage of women than men voted, 28% of people voted for 
only one candidate.  District 9 is the only district where 
these figures were made available for women and men.  22.7% 
of women in this district voted for only one candidate, 
raising the women's participation figures from 61.7% if we 
assume every voter voted twice to 69.6%.  Statistics on empty 
ballots are insufficient to measure their effect.  But 
overall, it is reasonable to assume that women's 
participation statistics will be 6 - 10% higher than the 
51.1% mentioned above.  Post's analysis, albeit based on 
unofficial numbers, is that just under 60% of eligible women 
voters cast ballots.  Kuwait University Professor Jassem 
Karam, who is Kuwait's foremost expert on the electoral 
districts, independently arrived at the conclusion that 58% 
of women voted.  Karam told Poloff that he did not understand 
why the lower figure had been previously reported.  Karam 
noted that he and Professor Shamlan Al-Eissa have begun a 
major study to analyze Kuwaitis' voting behavior in these 
elections.  They expect to publish the results early in 2007. 
 Karam also noted that full and accurate statistics should be 
available within a month. 
 
Women Did Not Vote Heavily for Islamists 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C/NF)  Many Kuwaitis predicted that women's 
participation would actually help Islamist candidates.  A 
cursory look at the election results might support that 
conclusion since Islamists increased their representation in 
the National Assembly by approximately 10%, depending how one 
classifies the new MPs.  A closer look reveals that women did 
not vote more conservatively than men overall.  For instance, 
in district 7, a bastion of Islamism, voters re-elected the 
two Islamist incumbents.  Women voted slightly more liberally 
 
KUWAIT 00002774  002 OF 003 
 
 
than men.  Adel Al-Sarawi, who had barely beaten ex-soccer 
star Abdullah Al-Ma'youf in 2003 for second place, came in 
first with 34.7% of the male vote and 33.4% of the female 
vote.  Ultra-conservative Waleed Al-Tabtabaei slipped to 
second this year with 30.4% of the male vote and 29.6% of the 
female vote.  Al-Ma'youf, a pro-Government candidate, won 
21.6% of the male vote and 21.2% of the female vote. 
Meanwhile, Aisha Al-Rushaid, an outspoken liberal and the 
only woman running in the district, got 2.5% of the male vote 
and 4.8% of the female vote.  In district 5, liberal women's 
rights advocate Ali Al-Rashed came in first, taking 25.3% of 
the women's vote and 22.9% of the men's vote, while Salafi 
Islamist Ahmad Baqer garnered 19.3% of the women's vote and 
20.1% of the men's. 
 
¶5.  (C/NF)  Women helped Islamists in some districts.  In 
district 18, Muslim Brother Jamaan Al-Hirbish polled 23.5% of 
the women's vote and 22.1% of the men's vote.  His victory is 
especially noteworthy because second-place finisher Khalaf 
Al-Dmaithir (who will still be in the National Assembly) had 
come in first in every election since 1981.  Dmaithir, a 
classic pro-Government service deputy, won 20.6% of the men's 
vote and 16.9% of the women's vote.  It is not clear, 
however, whether these numbers point to an Islamist bent 
among women.  Dmaithir's low numbers among women relative to 
Al-Hirbish's numbers may signify that women were more likely 
to vote for change.  In this election, the biggest issue was 
reduction of corruption and redistricting.  Since the 
Islamists are reformists on these issues, it is hard to know 
whether votes for Islamists were votes for Islamism or votes 
for reform.  One very liberal young woman from Al-Tabtabaei's 
district voted for him, much to her chagrin, because she felt 
that he was the most likely candidate to vote for electoral 
redistricting. 
 
¶6.  (C/NF)  In general, votes in Kuwait are not easy to 
interpret.  Voters may vote for a candidate based on tribal 
connections despite differences in political views.  Others 
may not vote for the candidate they prefer because they see 
him/her as unlikely to be elected.  Many voters vote for the 
candidate they believe will provide the most services rather 
than on the basis of positions on big-picture political 
issues.  And, as with any political system, voters may vote 
for a candidate with whom they agree on one important issue 
even though they disagree with his/her views on other issues. 
 Finally, being able to vote for two candidates introduces 
further strategic dimensions to voting.  Despite the 
difficulty of discerning the meaning of votes from raw 
numbers, the numbers strongly suggest that women did not 
provide a major boost for the Islamists. 
 
Did Women Vote According to Male Relatives' Instructions? 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7.  (C/NF)  Overall, it is striking how similarly men and 
women seem to have voted.  According to Post calculations, 6 
of the 25 districts had a gender gap of less than one 
percent, 11 districts had a gender gap between one and two 
percent, and 7 districts had a gender gap between two and 
three percent.  District 24, with a 4.1% gap, is the only 
district where the gap exceeded 3 percent.  This would seem 
to support another of the commonly offered theories in these 
elections, i.e. that women would vote according to the wishes 
of their fathers, brothers, husbands, or other male 
relatives.  It is impossible to know, however, what went on 
in women's minds as they voted.  An alternate theory to that 
of women voting according to men's wishes is that women 
sufficiently influenced the campaigns so that male candidates 
had to take positions that addressed women's concerns.  Thus, 
on election day there were few candidates who stood out as 
especially different from the perspective of men or women. 
 
¶8.  (C/NF) It is somewhat surprising that of those who voted 
for women's rights in 2005, eight lost compared to 11 who 
were re-elected.  Two lost in tribal primaries, which are 
illegal and in which women do not participate.  Meanwhile, of 
those who voted against women's political rights, only 5 lost 
re-election bids as compared to 16 who won.  One candidate 
who voted against women's political rights lost in a primary. 
 This could be used as further evidence that women were 
voting along the same lines as men, though causal statements 
are difficult to prove.  Many of those who voted against 
women's voting rights have come out in favor of constituency 
reform, which will probably be the only way women will be 
elected.  So they may end up helping women into office 
despite their initial opposition.  Women will have more to 
base their decisions on in the next parliamentary elections, 
when they will be able to evaluate the men they voted for. 
That may be a stronger indication of women's political 
 
KUWAIT 00002774  003 OF 003 
 
 
independence than this initial trial. 
 
Stats Suggest Why Reformers Want Redistricting 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9.  (C/NF)  Reformers complain that small districts mean 
candidates win by such small margins that dispensing of 
favors and money for votes is rampant.  The election 
statistics bear this out.  There were seven districts in 
which the difference between the second and third place 
winners -- i.e. the margin for getting into Parliament -- was 
less than 200 voters.  In 14 of the 25 districts, the margin 
between the second and third place candidates was less than 
500 votes.  If, as many suggest, some voters are willing to 
accept money in exchange for their vote, the cost of buying 
500 votes is well within the budgets of many of the 
candidates.  And it should be noted that the size of the 
districts in this election more than doubled because of 
women's votes.  There were widespread reports of electoral 
corruption, though the amount of vote-buying that actually 
occurred is unknowable.  Media campaigns and many candidates 
made it a major campaign issue, which may have led to a 
decrease in the incidence of electoral corruption this year. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
TUELLER