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OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHHK #2728/01 1841002
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O 031002Z JUL 06
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7586
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002728 
 
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NOFORN 
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM 
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2031 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: JULY 1 DEMONSTRATIONS: PRELUDE TO 2007 CHIEF 
EXECUTIVE ELECTION 
 
REF: HONG KONG 2709 
 
Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  on July 1, Hong Kong marked the ninth 
anniversary of its reversion to the PRC with three major 
events: an official flag-raising ceremony led by Chief 
Executive Donald Tsang, a "patriotic" parade organized by a 
coalition of pro-Beijing and pro-business organizations that 
drew 40-50,000 participants, and a pro-democracy rally and 
march through the city that attracted somewhere between 
28,000 and 58,000 people, significantly more than last year's 
event.  The pan-democrats generally were pleased that they 
were able to attract a sizable crowd in the absence of any 
pressing economic or political issues, and attributed their 
success in part to the active participation of former Chief 
Secretary Anson Chan, who still declines to clarify her plans 
 
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for the 2007 Chief Executive election.  Veteran political 
commentator Allen Lee told us on July 3, however, that 
"Beijing will not be moved by" the successful July 1 
pro-democracy march.  He said the central government 
currently was focused on the Chief Executive Election 
Committee process and would "use any means" to prevent the 
pan-democrats from amassing the one hundred electors 
necessary to contest the election.  Lee said Chan still does 
not want to run, but eventually will bow to pressure from the 
pan-democrats, who are beset with various internal problems, 
because "they have no-one else."  The pan-democrats also are 
awaiting a decision by Chan, whom they believe already has 
"paid the price for running against the candidate supported 
by Beijing."  End Summary. 
 
Competing Events 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On the morning of July 1, Hong Kong Chief Executive 
Donald Tsang officiated at a flag-raising ceremony to mark 
the ninth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC. 
Tsang told the invited attendees that the most important 
 
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mission for Hong Kong was to ensure the successful 
implementation of the "One Country, Two Systems" and the 
"Hong Kong People Running Hong Kong" principles.  Following 
the official event, adherents of Hong Kong's two major 
opposing political points of view organized separate 
large-scale public demonstrations.  First, a coalition of 
pro-Beijing and pro-business organizations led by Hong Kong 
Federation of Trade Unions President Cheng Yiu-tong organized 
a "patriotic" parade that drew 40,000 (police estimate) to 
50,000 (organizers' estimate) participants.  Chief Secretary 
Rafael Hui, two other cabinet members, Central Government 
Liaison Office officials, and the commander of the PLA Hong 
Kong Garrison attended, along with various local business and 
community leaders.  There were musical and martial arts 
performances, followed by a three-hour parade. 
 
¶3. (C) Later on the same day, the pan-democracy camp rallied 
at Victoria Park before marching through Hong Kong.  Police 
and organizers estimated the crowd at 28,000 and 58,000 
respectively, well above last year's figures of 17,000 and 
21,000.  Regardless of the precise number, the organizers 
were able to claim that attendance exceeded their publicized 
expectation of 30-40,000, although it fell far short of the 
much larger turnout of hundreds of thousands in 2003 and 
2004, when more urgent political, economic, and social issues 
energized the masses.  Civic Party member Joseph Cheng 
Yu-shek told us on July 3 that this year's roughly 50,000 was 
a "good turnout given the circumstances."  Cheng also noted 
that since 2003, there has been a "certain sense of 
competition between the democrats and the patriots", and he 
conceded that "a majority of Hong Kong people probably were 
more in favor of the patriotic position than the democratic 
position."   With the greater level of resources available to 
the pro-government and pro-Beijing organizations, Cheng said 
it was relatively easy for them to mobilize 50,000-100,000 
people for a demonstration. 
 
Star of the Show: Anson Chan 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Former Hong Kong Chief Secretary Anson Chan easily 
attracted the most attention during the pan-democratic march, 
drawing cheers from observers as she walked part of the 
route.  Since announcing one week ago her plan to join the 
event, Chan had issued near-daily appeals for the people of 
Hong Kong to join the march.  Before leaving the rally, Chan 
paused to answer questions from the media horde that had 
followed her.  She said she did not intend to "make trouble" 
 
HONG KONG 00002728  002 OF 003 
 
 
or to use the rally to further her personal political 
ambitions, and she urged the Government to take the 
initiative and map out a plan for implementation of universal 
suffrage.  Finally, asked yet again whether she planned to 
run against Chief Executive Tsang in the 2007 election, Chan 
reiterated that she would make her position clear "at a 
suitable time."  She also observed that the best way for the 
central government in Beijing to demonstrate its commitment 
to the "One Country, Two Systems" principle would be to give 
the people of Hong Kong universal suffrage. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The pro-democracy political parties, including the 
Democratic Party, Civic Party, and The Frontier, also were 
out in force for the march, as were their most prominent 
leaders (Lee Wing-tat, Ronny Tong, Emily Lau, and others). 
The banners carried by their supporters largely focused on 
the issue of universal suffrage.  Other participants included 
the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU), 
advocating democratization as well as adoption of a minimum 
wage; the Hong Kong Journalists' Association, urging "A Fair, 
Just, and Open Trial for (imprisoned journalist) Ching 
Cheong;" the Falun Gong organization; animal rights 
activists; harbor front preservations; teachers; and a large 
contingent of Asian domestic workers protesting increased 
fees.  A consulate observer estimated that roughly 85 percent 
of the participants were pro-democracy advocates. 
 
¶6. (C) Pan-democratic leaders were pleased that the turnout 
for their march, while nowhere near the levels of the 
corresponding 2003 or 2004 events, or even the December 2005 
rally against Chief Executive Tsang's plan for constitutional 
reform, exceeded both last year's level and some of the more 
pessimistic predictions for this year.  They were happy not 
to have been embarrassed, and they noted, fairly, that there 
currently were no major political or economic crises to 
mobilize the masses.  HKCTU Secretary General Lee Cheuk-yan 
told us on July 3 that he felt the people of Hong Kong had 
shown "persistence" in attending the rally without any 
"urgent issues."  Lee, who in the past has been somewhat 
lukewarm about Chan's democratic credentials, welcomed her 
participation but described her effect on the event as 
"limited but useful;" he believed the people of Hong Kong 
generally viewed Chan as a "person of the establishment," so 
her participation tended to lend more credibility to the 
pan-democratic event. 
 
Beijing "Will Not Be Moved" 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) On July 3, Liberal Party founder and veteran political 
commentator Allen Lee told us that, while the July 1 
pan-democracy march was successful, "Beijing will not be 
moved by it."  He said the central government's efforts 
currently were focused on the Chief Executive Election 
Committee process, due to begin in December, and they would 
"use any means" to ensure that the pan-democrats are unable 
to amass the one hundred nominations necessary to contest the 
election.  Lee said Chan's candidacy would put a lot of 
pressure on Donald Tsang: although she certainly would lose a 
vote in the Election Committee, she might subsequently defeat 
Tsang in the public popularity polls.  He also believed that 
 
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Chan still does not want to run, but eventually will bow to 
pressure from the pan-democrats, who are beset with various 
internal problems, because "they have no-one else."  Chan 
could become their "spiritual leader." 
 
¶8. (C) Lee also told us that his contacts in Beijing recently 
had asked him whether he could convince Anson Chan to join 
Donald Tsang's administration in some capacity, possibly as a 
member of the Executive Council (Exco).  He said he planned 
to discuss this issue with Chan in the next few days, 
although he did not think she would agree.  Lee also thought 
that a Chan candidacy would help Donald Tsang bargain more 
effectively with Beijing to gain their agreement for 
membership in his next cabinet and for establishment of a 
roadmap to universal suffrage. 
 
Waiting for Anson 
----------------- 
 
¶9. (C) On July 3, the Civic Party's Joseph Cheng told us that 
now the pan-democrats "have to wait for Anson Chan."  Cheng 
believed Anson already had decided to join the election, as 
she already had "paid the price for running against the 
candidate supported by Beijing."  The democrats would not 
approach her, but if Chan decided to run she would be their 
candidate, both because she is respected and credible and 
 
HONG KONG 00002728  003 OF 003 
 
 
because there is nobody else with her standing outside the 
democratic movement.  Cheng said it was necessary to 
distinguish between Chan as a pro-democracy candidate and as 
a leader of the democracy movement; she could easily become 
the former, but would not be the latter. 
 
Cunningham