VZCZCXYZ0009
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHHEA #0682 2001357
ZNY CCCCC ZZH ZUI RUEWCSE7588 2001821
R 191357Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHCH/AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016 
TAGS: OSCE PBTS PREL RS MD FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND/EU TROUBLED BY TRANSNISTRIA INDEPENDENCE 
REFERENDUM; WILL RAISE CONCERNS INFORMALLY WITH RUSSIA 
 
REF: STATE 115371 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLCHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE FINNISH EU PRESIDENCY SHARES THE US 
 
 
 
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CONCERN THAT TRANSNISTRIA'S PROPOSED INDEPENDENCE 
REFERENDUM CANNOT BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY OR TREATED AS 
LEGITIMATE.  THE GOF FEARS RUSSIA MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT 
THE REFERENDUM'S RESULTS, EVEN THOUGH DOING SO WILL 
UNDERMINE MOSCOW'S STATED SUPPORT OF OSCE-AGREED 
UNDERSTANDINGS ON BORDER INTEGRITY; ITS PUBLIC DENIALS 
OF TERRITORIAL AMBITIONS IN TRANSNISTRIA; AND EVEN, 
TANGENTIALLY, ITS ARGUMENTS AGAINST KOSOVOS 
INDEPENDENCE.  THE FINNS AND THE COUNCIL HAVE TACITLY 
AGREED THAT THE EU SHOULD NOT FORMALLY DEMARCHE MOSCOW 
ON THE REFERENDUM; RATHER, THE EU AND THE FINNS WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMIND THE GOR OF THE AWKWARD POSITION IT 
RISKS PUTTING ITSELF IN AS PART OF A SERIES OF OTHER 
DISCUSSIONS (AS THEY DID AT THE JULY 14 PSC TROIKA). 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) POLCHIEF DELIVERED SUBJECT DEMARCHE TO TUULA 
YRJOLA, COUNSELOR FOR BELORUS, UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA IN 
THE FINNISH MFA'S UNIT FOR EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL 
ASIA.  YRJOLA SAID THAT THE GOF, BOTH NATIONALLY AND IN 
 
 
 
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ITS CAPACITY AS EU PRESIDENT, SHARED US CONCERNS ABOUT 
THE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE REFERENDUM ON EVENTUAL UNION 
WITH RUSSIA THAT THE TRANSNISTRIAN "SUPREME SOVIET" 
RECENTLY ANNOUNCED. 
 
¶3. (C) THE GOF STRONGLY QUESTIONS RUSSIAN MOTIVES AND 
THE ROLE MOSCOW HAS PLAYED IN POSSIBLY URGING SMIRNOV 
AND THE "SUPREME SOVIET" TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THIS 
INITIATIVE, YRJOLA SAID.  AT A MINIMUM, THE REFERENDUM 
PUTS RUSSIA IN A TREMENDOUSLY AWKWARD AND PROBLEMATIC 
POSITION.  ACCEPTING ITS RESULTS WOULD FLY IN THE FACE 
OF MOSCOW'S LONG-STATED SUPPORT FOR OSCE-AGREED 
UNDERSTANDINGS ON BORDER INTEGRITY; MOREOVER, IT WOULD 
CALL INTO SERIOUS QUESTION THE TRUTHFULNESS OR 
LEGITIMACY OF RUSSIA'S ALLEGED LACK OF TERRITORIAL 
AMBITIONS IN TRANSNISTRIA.  ONE COULD EVEN ARGUE, SHE 
OPINED, THAT SUCH SUPPORT WOULD UNDERMINE THE ARGUMENT 
MOSCOW IS INCREASINGLY PUTTING FORWARD REGARDING 
KOSOVO'S FINAL STATUS; I.E., THAT INDEPENDENCE WOULD 
PROVIDE POLITICAL INCENTIVE AND PERHAPS EVEN A LEGAL 
 
 
 
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BASIS FOR OTHER ETHNIC ENCLAVES (ESPECIALLY IN FROZEN 
CONFLICTS) TO TAKE UP ARMS OR OTHER ILLEGAL MEANS TO 
ACHIEVE INDEPENDENCE.  ON THE OTHER HAND, YRJOLA 
CONCLUDED, MOSCOWS REJECTION OF THE TRANSNISTRIA 
REFERENDUM WOULD SIGNAL A BREAK WITH SMIRNOV SO SHARP AS 
TO LACK CREDIBILITY. 
 
¶4. (C) AS FAR AS AN EU RESPONSE, YRJOLA SAID THAT COUNCIL 
AND PRESIDENCY OFFICIALS RAISED THE TRANSNISTRIA REFERENDUM 
WITH RUSSIAN PSC AMBASSADOR VLADIMIR CHIZHOV DURING THE PSC 
RUSSIA TROIKA MEETINGS ON JULY 14.  CHIZHOV DOWNPLAYED THE 
REFERENDUM AS "SOMETHING RUSSIA CAN NOT CONTROL" BUT 
REAFFIRMED TO THE TROIKA RUSSIA'S COMMITMENT TO MOLDOVA'S 
TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.  SUBSEQUENTLY, YRJOLA REPORTED, THE 
FINNISH PRESIDENCY AND THE COUNCIL SECRETARIAT AGREED THAT 
THEY WOULD NOT ORGANIZE A FORMAL EU DEMARCHE TO RUSSIA ON 
THE ISSUE, BUT AGREED TO BRING IT UP ON THE MARGINS OF 
SEVERAL UPCOMING EU-RUSSIA MEETINGS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THE 
GOR RESPONDS, BOTH THE FINNS AND THE COUNCIL REMAIN OPEN TO 
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FORMAL DEMARCHE AS SEPT. 17 NEARS. 
 
 
 
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