VZCZCXRO1944
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHLB #2474/01 2071549
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261549Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4793
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002474

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016
TAGS: IS KISL LE MOPS PTER
SUBJECT: TFLE01: SHIA ANGER BUTTRESSING HIZBALLAH;
INVASION WELCOMED

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------

¶1. (C/NF) On July 26, Embassy contacts in the Shia
community reported that Shia support for Hizballah was
strong, as was anger at the USG for supporting Israel. There
was a general feeling that Hizballah must remain armed or
"they" will pick off the Shia one by one. Morale inside
Hizballah remains high as well. Our sources tell us that
Hizballah officials welcomed the Israeli incursion into
Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil because it levels the playing
field and because Israeli occupation provides a justification
to keep fighting. Hizballah appears ready to keep fighting,
especially if the fighting moves to a ground war in southern
Lebanon. End summary.

SUPPORT FOR HIZBALLAH;
ANGER AT THE USG
----------------

¶2. (C/NF) On July 26, the Embassy's contacts in the Shia
community reported continued strong support for Hizballah,
and fury at the USG for its support for Israel. Riad
al-Asad, a moderate Shia politician who had run against the
Amal-Hizballah alliance in the 2005 parliamentary elections,
reacted angrily to polstaff's call. His colorful reply,
after uncharacteristic profanities, was, "Everyone is for
Hizballah now!"

¶3. (C/NF) Moderate Shia intellectual Ibrahim Shamseddine
was more cordial, but delivered the same message. Hizballah
has more supporters and sympathizers in the Shia community
than ever, he said. There is a growing conviction in the
Shia community that if Hizballah were to disarm, "they" would
pick us Shia off one by one. USG calls for a "New Middle
East" have added to the anxiety of the Shia community,
fearing the USG may target them next, according to
Shamseddine. He added that most Shia believe that the USG is
refusing to stop the war, so they are rallying to Hizballah.

¶4. (C/NF) Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh told us that Shia
support for Hizballah is still strong. He reported that
Hizballah officials remain self-confident despite the Israeli
attacks. They are enthusiastic about how Hizballah has been
able to keep up its rocket attacks on northern Israel.
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent
televised speech was designed to encourage his Shia
constituency and to hold them together, according to Sabbagh.

GROUND WAR WELCOMED
-------------------

¶5. (C/NF) Sabbagh, who regularly interacts with Hizballah
officials, assessed that Hizballah's strategy was to keep
fighting since the party has nothing to lose anymore. Israel
has already devastated the areas where Shia live. He said
that Hizballah is "not unhappy" with the IDF ground incursion
into Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil because it provides
Hizballah a pretext to keep fighting, this time to liberate
Lebanese land.

¶6. (C/NF) Separately, former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel
told econoff that he saw the Israeli ground incursion as
exactly what Hizballah wanted. Goksel's contacts in
Hizballah told him that they hope "Israel stays awhile."
Hizballah officials told Goksel that only 17 Hizballah
fighters had delayed the Israeli advance on Maroun el-Ras and
exacted a heavy price on the IDF. (Seven of those 17 were
killed in the fighting, according to the same officials.)
Hizballah officials also told Goksel that Hizballah has lost
only 30 fighters in the two weeks of war so far. Hizballah
officials were further encouraged, according to Goksel,
because the heavy fighting that bloodied Israeli forces in
Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil was carried out by local
Hizballah militiamen, not their elite "Special Forces."
According to Goksel, Hizballah is holding back its best
fighters in the event of a larger Israeli invasion.

¶7. (C/NF) Hizballah welcomes ground fighting not only
because it levels the playing field, according to Goksel. It
also distracts from Hizballah's anxiety over the aftereffects
of the war. Many Hizballah officials are worried that,
although morale within Hizballah's military wing remains
high, they will have to justify to their constituents the

BEIRUT 00002474 002 OF 002

suffering caused by the war. An invasion would provide a
convenient distraction and a ready justification to continue
fighting.
FELTMAN