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C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002447

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NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2016
TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: TFLE01: MARONITE DOYEN WARNS: "THE WEST MUST WIN
THIS WAR."

SUMMARY
-------

¶1. (C/NF) On 7/22, Maronite doyen Sheikh Michel el Khoury
(and son of Lebanon's first president) told the Ambassador
that the West's hopes for democracy in the Middle East depend
upon winning the current war against Hizballah and its Syrian
and Iranian backers. Still, Sheikh Michel warned that with
its aggressive military campaign, "Israel will kill the
patient by fighting the cancer." He worried that Hizballah
will manage to pull a victory out of any scenario, no matter
how much damage Israel inflicts on Lebanon. Sheikh Michel
did mention that Hizballah is firmly against the
establishment of a humanitarian corridor to south Lebanon,
however, perhaps suggesting that one of the keys to defeating
Hizballah would be to undermine its vast social services
network. He also hoped that Maronite Patriarch Sfeir would
soon make a strong statement condemning Hizballah's
recklessness. He advised, however, that the Patriarch is
surrounded by pro-Syrian advisors in high levels of the
Maronite church. Sheikh Michel defended the performance of
Prime Minister Siniora, and said he would make an ideal
president if not for Lebanon's "stupid" confessional rules.
Like most other prominent Christian figures, Sheikh Michel
reserved his strongest condemnation for Free Patriotic
Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, accusing him of embezzling
tens of millions of dollars in tax revenues from Lebanon's
Central Bank. End summary.

HIZBALLAH AND THE NOBILITY OF FAILURE
-------------------------------------

¶2. (C/NF) On 7/22, former Central Bank Governor and Minister
of Defense Sheikh Michel el Khoury met the Ambassador and
emboff over lunch. Sheikh Michel, the octogenarian son of
Lebanon's first president, Beshara el Khoury, told the
Ambassador that the West "must win" the current war against
Hizballah and its supporters if it is to defend its hopes for
democracy in the Middle East. Khoury warned that if
Hizballah wins this conflict, "Lebanon as we know it will
disappear," and Iran will be emboldened to use more force to
secure even greater power in the region.

¶3. (C/NF) But the real problem, Sheikh Michel explained, lay
in the fact that it would be difficult to wrest victory from
Hizballah's grasp. Just as Egyptian President Gamal Abdel
Nasser was able to ride Egypt's catastrophic military defeat
in the 1967 War to even greater heights of popularity, Hassan
Nasrallah and Hizballah will be able to claim victory over
Israel and the West simply by having stood up to them,
regardless of the ammount of punishment that Lebanon absorbs.
In what he described as their "perverse logic," Sheikh
Michel said that Lebanon's Muslim community, especially the
Shia, would support Hizballah more and more as Israel's
military assault becomes more intense and the Lebanese
sustain greater and greater casualties, "You cannot defeat
them though violence. They welcome it and are not afraid of
death." Ultimately, Sheikh Michel worried, "Israel will kill
the patient in fighting the cancer."

¶4. (C/NF) Indicative of the degree to which Hizballah would
relish any destruction and humanitarian casualties inflicted
by Israel's campaign, Sheikh Michel told the Ambassador that
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was firmly
against the establishment of an international humanitarian
corridor in Lebanon's south. Sheikh Michel explained that
Hizballah wanted to remain the sole provider of humanitarian
relief in the south (heavily funded, of course, by Iran),
without competition from the international community.

¶5. (C/NF) Sheikh Michel also worried about the effect that
so many displaced persons would have on Lebanon's delicate
confessional balance. He said that waves of Shiite refugees
from the south were bound to exacerbate tensions with
Lebanon's Christian and Sunni communities. He added that
stories of Shiite squatters and reports of fights at refugee
shelters are starting to become common. As he discussed the
dangers posed by so many displaced persons, an especially
persistent fly continued to flit over Sheikh Michel's lunch
table. As he attempted to swat it away for the unteempth
time, Sheikh Michel said to the Ambassador, "I do apologize
for the fly, I've never had one up here before ... it must be

from the south."

A ROLE FOR THE PATRIARCH
------------------------

¶6. (C/NF) Sheikh Michel argued for a stronger role for
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, and said he hoped that he would
make a strong statement condemning Hizballah's recklessness
now that he has returned to Lebanon. Sheikh Michel worried
however, that the Patriarch lacks the resolve to do so, and
that many of his closest advisors are pro-Syrian. He said
that he had had spent a few hours with the Patriarch the day
before, and strongly argued that he condemn Hizballah's
actions. Doing so, he suggested, would help put Hizballah in
a corner. He described the Patriarch as "weak-willed,"
however, and said he wasn't sure his resolve would hold,
especially after listening again to his pro-Syrian advisors.
Khoury named a Bishop Rai from Jbeil as one being especially
close to both the Patriarch and Syria.

PRAISE FOR SINIORA
------------------

¶7. (C/NF) Whereas Sheikh Michel was disappointed with the
Patriarch's lack of resolve, however, he had strong praise
for Prime Minister Siniora's leadership during the current
crisis. Impressed that he has managed to hold his government
together over the past two weeks, Sheikh Michel said that
Siniora is perhaps the only "real Lebanese" on the political
scene today, an individual who is willing to put the good of
the country before his own personal or sectarian interests.
He told the Ambassador that he thought Siniora would be the
perfect president now, if it weren't for the "stupid"
sectarian code that reserves Lebanon's presidency for a
Maronite Christian. "We Maronites don't have anyone as good
as Siniora. We need to start thinking like a nation." The
only criticism Michel had for his friend the Prime Minister
is that he lacks the decisiveness necessary for effective
leadership in crisis. "He has always been the number two
man, and doesn't know to use his power. But he's learning."

(MORE) CONDEMNATION FOR AOUN
----------------------------

¶8. (C) Adding one more voice to the growing chorus of
dissent against FPM leader Michel Aoun, Sheikh Michel took
several opportunities during the 90-minute lunch to deplore
Aoun's character and motivation. Sheikh Michel said that Aoun
had clearly wagered on a Hizballah victory and was hoping to
use his ties with them to create a new Lebanese majority,
albeit one anchored in Damascus and Tehran. Michel said that
Aoun had few scruples about his allies, however, as long as
he calculated they could propel him into the presidency. As
other interlocutors have suggested, Sheikh Michel believes
that Aoun made a deal with Syria to come back to Lebanon.
Unlike many of his co-conspirators, however, Sheikh Michel
had details to back his accusations up. According to Sheikh
Michel, Syria allowed Aoun to embezzle between 30-50 million
dollars in tax revenues from the Lebanese Central Bank before
his return from exile in 2005. He has since used these funds
to finance his political aspiration and a series of private
ventures as well. Sheikh Michel said that Aoun's forthcoming
"Orange TV" will largely be financed by these tax revenues,
although he will have a certain ammount of real private
donations to make the money look clean.
FELTMAN