VZCZCXRO7605
OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHLB #2437/01 2021239
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 211239Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4730
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002437

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2016
TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: TFLE01: MINISTER MOUAWAD URGES HUMANITARIAN
RESPONSE...AND HOPES HIZBALLAH IS WEAKENED BEFORE
CEASE-FIRE TAKES HOLD

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
-------

¶1. (S/NF) Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad
described the humanitarian situation in Lebanon as
approaching a critical point. Although she used less
alarming terms than PM Siniora employed in his speech of July
19, Minister Mouawad still insisted the greatest challenge
was not the supply of food and fuel, but its safe
distribution inside Lebanon, especially to towns in south
Lebanon. Mouawad urged the US to convince the GOI that the
creation of "humanitarian corridors" was not only a civilized
responsibility, but would benefit Israel by helping prevent
instability in Lebanon. Mouawad also expressed deep concern
that IDP flows were leading to a dangerous escalation of
communal tensions, as confessions that are not accustomed to
living together are being forced to share a common pool of
dwindling resources. Concerning the political situation, the
Minister strongly criticized the destruction of the country's
infrastructure, but not in the personal terms used earlier by
Siniora. Rather, she confessed that she hopes Hizballah is
sufficiently weakened prior to the implementation of any
cease-fire. She said that if Hizballah emerges from the
conflict with most of its power still intact, democracy in
Lebanon would be mortally wounded. End summary.

¶2. (C) Minister of Social Services Nayla Mouawad met the
Ambassador and PolOff on Thursday afternoon, July 20. The
sometime presidential candidate had indicated earlier that
she wished to discuss the developing humanitarian situation
before it reached a crisis level. In addition to her
ministerial duties, Minister Mouawad runs one of the largest
humanitarian NGOs in Lebanon, whose work is widely regarded
as having helped reconciliation and reducing confessional
tensions.

HUMANITARIAN ISSUES
-------------------

¶3. (C) Minister Mouawad disagreed with the IDP numbers
being put out by the GOL (500K as of July 20). She
maintained that well over 100K may have moved up into the
Beirut areas from south Lebanon -- seriously complicating
confessional tensions -- but the bulk of IDP movement is
still relatively short distance -- from one village to
another in the south.

¶4. (C) The Minister had three primary humanitarian concerns
(all of which are inter-related): an impending shortage of
supplies (particularly in south Lebanon), the current
inability to safely distribute available supplies inside
Lebanon (which she characterized as the biggest problem), and
lastly, an increase in confessional friction, as different
sectarian groups are forced together and try to equitably
share a limited amount of resources.

¶5. (C) Mouawad asked the Ambassador for assistance in two
areas: have the US intercede with GOI to permit the
establishment of "humanitarian corridors" into south Lebanon
-- as soon as possible. (Note: Late on July 20, Israeli PM
Olmert publicly announced his government would permit at
least an external corridor, although no specifics were
provided End note.)

¶6. (C) Her second humanitarian request was for the US to
coordinate and implement its humanitarian effort in such a
way as to strengthen the Siniora government. Mouawad
admitted the government agency in charge of humanitarian
relief, the Higher Relief Committee (in the Office of the
Prime Minister), was "dysfunctional," but in her opinion, it
would be best if the US and EU used the many effective NGOs
and international organizations that presently operate in
Lebanon (Caritas, ICRC, UNRWA, UNWFO, ICMC, etc.) for
implementation and distribution, and included the Higher
Relief Committee as an authorization authority -- to show the
Lebanese people its government is engaged and effective.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
----------------------

¶7. (C) Minister Mouawad spoke in admiring tones about the
performance of PM Siniora, as well as the stalwart support

BEIRUT 00002437 002 OF 002

and advice he has received from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
Mouawad said that over the past several days Siniora had
established beyond a doubt across Lebanon's political
spectrum that he was a true "national" leader, rather than
simply a Sunni advocate. On the other hand, she feels Saad
Hariri's star has fallen, even though his speech in Saudi
Arabia (Wednesday, July 19) was strong and most welcome.

¶8. (C) Mouawad's harshest words were reserved for FPM
leader Michel Aoun, who she implied was a sanctimonious
crook, and whose supporters simply wanted the spoils of
power. She marveled at the "strangeness" of Aoun's comments
in yesterday's interview with Al Jazeera television. Mouawad
implied his presidential aspirations are now severely
damaged, if not dead.

¶9. (C) The Minister (whose husband, President Rene Mouawad,
was assassinated in 1989) expressed to the Ambassador deep
concern over the physical safety of PM Siniora and Jumblatt.
She stated flatly that their leadership, now and in the
post-conflict period, was absolutely essential.

"I SHOULDN'T SAY THIS AS A MINISTER"
------------------------------------

¶10. (S/NF) Although Minister Mouawad conveyed unease with
the subject, she stated that if a cease-fire was implemented
too soon (i.e. before Hizballah is seriously degraded), it
would be very difficult for Lebanon's pro-reform forces to
survive. "I have never considered leaving Lebanon, but if
Hizballah emerges victorious, Lebanon will be a far different
country," she informed the Ambassador.

TWO REQUESTS
------------

¶11. (C) In closing, Minister Mouawad re-emphasized two
issues: the urgent necessity of starting humanitarian
operations now and the advantages of using that effort to
strengthen the standing of the GOL with the Lebanese people.
She stated the first step is the immediate establishment of
humanitarian corridors inside Lebanon to the villages of the
south.

¶12. (C) Finally, she urged that USG support and protect
three critical figures: Fouad Siniora, Walid Jumblatt, and
unexpectedly, Nabih Berri -- who in her opinion may be the
best available Shia alternative to Nasrallah.
FELTMAN