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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINS PINR KPKO AU SO ER ET
SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG SURVIVES ASSASSINATION, DEFECTIONS, AND 
ATTEMPTED NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2042 
     ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 2041 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON.  REASON: 1.4 (B),(D) 
. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  Over the last three days, Somalia's 
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has weathered the 
assassination of one government minister, the resignation of 
nearly 20 others, and a no-confidence vote by 49 per cent of 
its parliamentarians.  According to Somalia's PermRep to the 
African Union, Eritrea (with Libyan funding) continues to 
provide weapons and supplies to Union of Islamic Courts 
fighters:  at least seven suspected supply flights have 
landed over the last three days in Mogadishu, and three ships 
(one carrying 500 Eritreans) have reportedly sailed for 
Somalia.  On the eve of an expected IGAD ministerial-level 
meeting in Nairobi, Somalia's PermRep to the African Union 
anticipates that IGAD will formally endorse a detailed plan 
for an international peacekeeping operation in Somalia, for 
consideration by the AU Peace and Security Council and 
ultimately the UN Security Council.  Farah expressed concern 
about Egyptian ambivalence toward the TFG, and about the role 
the League of Arab States may be playing in Mogadishu.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) DCM and deputy pol-econ counselor met July 31 with 
Abdulkarim Farah, Ambassador of Somalia's TFG to Ethiopia and 
the TFG's Permanent Representative to the African Union. 
Farah was accompanied by two Puntland State of Somalia 
ministers:  Minister of Finance Mohamed Ali Yosuf, and Vice 
Minister of Port, Transport and Marine Resources Abdulwali 
Abdulrahman Gayre. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
MINISTER'S ASSASSINS REPORT OTHERS AT LARGE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Amb. Farah said that "the TFG has survived," despite 
several difficult events over the preceding three days, 
including the July 28 killing of Minister of State Affairs 
Abdalla Derrow Issak, the resignation of nearly 20 other TFG 
ministers, and an attempt by parliament to pass a motion of 
no-confidence in Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi: 
 
-- Authorities had already captured six suspects who had 
infiltrated the TFG's base at Baidoa; they reported being 
paid for the assassination and alleged that 21 additional 
assassins were targeting other officials, Farah said.  Prime 
Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi believed that either he or 
President Abdullahi Yusuf would be targeted next, Farah 
added.  He said it was possible that the TFG could relocate 
from Baidoa to the relative safety of Puntland, "where the 
TFG was born." 
 
-- Politically, the TFG was secure for at least another six 
months, Farah said, having defeated recent parliamentary 
efforts to pass a vote of no-confidence in PM Ghedi; the 
Transitional Charter allowed such a motion only every six 
months, he explained.  While 139 of 257 parliamentarians 
would have been needed to adopt such a vote, only 126 MPs had 
voted for the motion.  Farah attributed the no-confidence 
motion to approximately 20 leaders in Mogadishu who had 
previously sought to take power by force, and who had pledged 
to reject whomever was nominated to replace PM Ghedi.  Farah 
said the recent resignation of nearly 20 TFG ministers did 
not weaken the TFG:  "President Yusuf is a strong man; we 
need 30 more to resign," he said.  There had been nearly 80 
ministers, and all remained members of parliament even if 
they resigned their ministerial position. 
 
-- The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) now had its momentum 
broken, and was suffering from a crisis of leadership, he 
said.  Former interim (i.e., Transitional National 
Government) Prime Minister Ali Khalif Galayhd had left 
university lecturing in Minnesota to travel to Mogadishu and 
negotiate with the UIC, Farah said, adding that Galayhd 
wanted to become prime minister again. 
 
-- Farah also asserted that the approximately 120 militia 
members who had recently defected to the UIC had subsequently 
reversed their decision.  Now sheltered in Farah's home town 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002093  002 OF 003 
 
 
of Beled Weyne, the militia sought to return to Baidoa. 
Their continued allegiance to the TFG resulted from 
disillusionment with the ICU:  "What they saw, and what they 
expected, were different," Farah said. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ERITREAN SUPPLIES ARRIVE BY AIR AND BY SEA 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Amb. Farah appealed for international assistance to 
monitor Somali airspace, asserting that Eritrea continued to 
supply UIC forces.  While there had been only a single 
commercial flight from Dubai, from July 29-31 seven chartered 
flights suspected of carrying supplies for the ICU had 
arrived at Mogadishu; in some cases, the same aircraft had 
made two flights in the same day, he said.  In addition, Amb. 
Farah said, "international intelligence" had reported three 
ships leaving the Eritrean port of Asmara: the TFG could 
confirm that one ship carrying 500 Eritrean forces had docked 
July 29 at Warshiikh (approximately 50 km north of 
Mogadishu); the location of the other two ships was unknown. 
Eritrea was providing the ICU with logistical support so the 
ICU could expand its reach toward Puntland, Farah said, but 
President Yusuf had pledged that the TFG "will try our best 
to resist."  Libya was financing the Eritrean effort, Farah 
said. 
 
¶5. (C) Ethiopian insurgents also continue to enter Somalia, 
Farah said, asserting that 13 vehicles carrying Ogaden 
National Liberation Front (ONLF) fighters had been sighted 
crossing the border toward Beled Weyne. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
IGAD FOREIGN MINISTERS EXPECTED TO ENDORSE PKO 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (C) Amb. Farah expected the extraordinary 
ministerial-level session of the Inter-Governmental Authority 
on Development (IGAD), convening August 1 in Nairobi, to 
endorse a detailed plan for a peacekeeping operation in 
Somalia (IGASOM) as anticipated by the UN Security Council, 
which he said had shown tremendous support of the TFG. 
According to Farah, a nine-day AU/IGAD/League of Arab States 
fact-finding mission to Somalia would conclude that, within 
Somalia, only Mogadishu opposed the deployment of 
peacekeeping forces.  Farah added that even Puntland, which 
had its own security forces, would endorse a peacekeeping 
mission "out of solidarity" with the TFG.  Farah said he was 
pushing the AU to convene a meeting of the AU Peace and 
Security Council immediately after (i.e., by August 4) the 
IGAD ministerial, in order to endorse IGAD's conclusions. 
 
¶7. (C) Asked about the TFG's relations with Somaliland 
authorities, Amb. Farah noted that residents of Somaliland 
"are our brothers but Somaliland is a part of Somalia."  The 
TFG supported Somaliland's effort to promote peace and 
reconstruction for its people, but could not accept 
secession.  Nevertheless, while the TFG opposed Somaliland's 
efforts at seeking recognition in international 
organizations, the TFG deliberately avoided any provocative 
action or statement toward Somaliland, Farah said. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Farah and Puntland Vice Minister Gayre noted that 
while Hargeisa's airport was commonly used by most 
expatriates returning to Somalia, Puntland authorities were 
developing airports and seaports at Galcayo and Bossaso, in 
consultation with Ethiopia and with funding from the EU. 
Minister Gayre said that Puntland welcomed all Somalis, and 
had even attracted foreign traders from Ethiopia, Yemen, and 
Congo.  Gayre said he wished the United States were more 
active in Puntland, like the EU. 
 
------------------------------------- 
AMBIVALENCE TOWARD EGYPT, ARAB LEAGUE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) According to Farah, Ethiopia (one of 15 PSC members) 
would likely not be required to recuse itself from the AU 
PSC, particularly as decisions would be taken by consensus. 
He expressed concern about the positions of Djibouti and of 
Egypt.  For eight years, he said, Egypt had been ambivalent 
toward the TFG, neither supporting nor opposing PSC actions 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00002093  003 OF 003 
 
 
on Somalia, and seeking to weaken PSC communiques.  Farah 
said he would personally advocate Somalia's withdrawal from 
the League of Arab States, which he said was not as eager to 
play a constructive role as IGAD.  The League now had an 
office in Mogadishu, but its activities were unclear, he 
said.  The League had renewed pledges made in 2003 to provide 
USD 56 million to Somalia, but had not actually provided any 
funds to the TFG, he said. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
ETHIOPIAN PRESS LOBBYING FOR IGASOM INTERVENTION 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶10. (U) In the leadup to the IGAD ministerial, Ethiopian and 
AU officials have been advocating a peacekeeping operation 
and a revision to the UNSC-imposed arms embargo on Somalia. 
Consistent with the AU Summit's July 2 Declaration on Somalia 
and previous AU PSC communiques, AU Peace and Security 
Commissioner Said Djinnit was quoted in local media as 
calling for revision of the arms embargo to allow the 
expeditious deployment of IGASOM, following a July 25 
briefing by Ambassador Farah to the PSC (refs A-B).  Over the 
last week, Ethiopian state-run media have featured lead 
articles highlighting GOE Minister Bereket Simon discussing 
the fundamentalist threat posed by the UIC's al-Qaida and 
AIAI-affiliated leaders, Harari Islamic Supreme Council 
Chairman Hajji Ibrahim Abdurrahman rejecting the UIC's 
dismantling of the legitimate TFG, and GOE reports on 
Eritrea's active support for the UIC in Somalia.  The July 28 
edition of the state-run "Ethiopian Herald" featured a lead 
story entitled, "International Community Does Not Wish To See 
TGS Blown Away by Jihadists:  Meles."   The article 
highlighted remarks by PM Meles that "Ethiopia is sending a 
clear message to the international community to get tackling 
Islamic Courts in Somalia or 'we will.'"  (NOTE:  Charge and 
CJTF-HOA Commander Rear Admiral Richard Hunt's July 31 
meeting with PM Meles will be reported septel.) 
 
¶11. (SBU) BIO-NOTE: Puntland Vice Minister of Port, Transport 
and Marine Resources Abdulwali Abdulrahman Gayre is a U.S. 
citizen who studied in Minnesota.  He and Minister of Finance 
Mohamed Ali Yosuf have been invited to attend a conference on 
Puntland in Minnesota.  Like many Somali officials, Yosuf 
travels on an Ethiopian passport.  Amb. Farah (a UK citizen) 
noted that many UIC extremists traveled on Ethiopian 
passports through Dubai.  He noted that Somalia had given two 
passports (one regular, one diplomatic) to Ethiopian Prime 
Minister Meles, one of which was on public display in a 
museum. 
 
¶12. (C) COMMENT:  Assassination in Baidoa, the mass 
resignation of ministers, and a nearly successful vote of 
no-confidence highlight the political vulnerability of 
Somali's Transitional Federal Government, even as it faces 
significant security threats from Islamic extremists and the 
UIC's suspected foreign backers.  It is increasingly urgent 
to approve an IGAD mission to support and train the TFG. 
Failure to do so could result in further weakening and 
defections within the TFG.  If IGAD foreign ministers adopt a 
peacekeeping plan, they will be giving fruition to an 
operation originally proposed two years ago.  In addition to 
Ambassador Farah's request for international assistance to 
monitor its airspace, Post recommends interagency efforts to 
monitor Somalia's coastline in order to prevent or interdict 
further shipments of troops or supplies to the UIC, which 
risk destabilizing not only the TFG but the region.  END 
COMMENT. 
HUDDLESTON