VZCZCXRO7523
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHSQ #0596/01 1731419
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221419Z JUN 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4835
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 4082
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: AS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN 
KICKS OFF, ALBANIAN PARTIES SQUARE OFF 
 
REF: A. SKOPJE 451 
     ¶B. SKOPJE 420 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SKOPJE 00000596  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The 20-day official campaign season for 
Macedonia's July 5 parliamentary elections began June 15, 
with a total of 31 parties competing in the country's six 
electoral districts.  The parliament on June 12 amended the 
criminal code to stiffen penalties for violations of the 
electoral code, party leaders signed a USG-sponsored Code of 
Conduct for the elections June 13, and both the Islamic 
Community and the Macedonian Orthodox Church have issued 
appeals for free, fair and peaceful elections.  The latest 
polls show opposition VMRO-DPMNE and governing SDSM running 
neck-and-neck; the earlier gap between ethnic Albanian rivals 
DUI and DPA is shrinking, with DUI polling 17% and DPA 13%. 
Despite the public calls by parties and religious leaders for 
peaceful elections, violent campaign-related incidents, 
mostly between ethnic Albanian parties but including ethnic 
Macedonian parties as well, have marred the first week of the 
campaign.  If those incidents continue unchecked, they will 
put at risk Macedonia's EU and NATO aspirations, a message we 
are conveying to all parties.  End Summary. 
 
CAMPAIGN KICKOFFS 
 
¶2. (U) The official 20-day campaign season for Macedonia's 
July 5 parliamentary elections kicked off June 15, although 
most parties had "unofficially" begun to campaign weeks prior 
to that date.  Jumping the gun slightly, governing SDSM 
launched its campaign June 14 with the slogan "Forward, Not 
Backward" during a multi-media extravaganza attended by 
15,000 supporters at the Skopje city stadium.  On June 15, 
opposition VMRO-DPMNE's "Strength for Macedonia" campaign 
kicked off in the southern tourist resort of Ohrid, while 
eAlbanian DUI (junior governing coalition partner) opened in 
Skopje with the slogan "We are courageous, we act. You 
decide."  DPA, the major eAlbanian opposition party, kept its 
slogan simple -- "We Believe." 
 
CANDIDATE LISTS - MULTI-ETHNIC, GENDER-BALANCED 
 
¶3. (U) A total of 31 political parties and coalitions 
submitted candidate lists (each party or coalition can submit 
a list of up to 20 candidates in each of 6 electoral 
districts), all of which were approved by the State Election 
Commission.  The lists reflected the increased female 
candidate representation called for in the new electoral code 
(ref A), and many of the lists comprised inter-ethnic 
coalitions.  DUI's list, for example, has an ethnic Bosniac 
heading their list in one district, with an ethnic Macedonian 
in the second slot.  SDSM's coalition list includes Turk, 
Vlach, Roma, and Serb candidates. 
 
STIFFER PENALTIES FOR ELECTORAL CODE VIOLATIONS 
 
¶4. (U) On June 12, the Macedonian Parliament amended the 
criminal code to stiffen penalties for election law 
violations.  The amended law does away with financial 
penalties for violations, but increases the minimum sentence 
for committing electoral fraud to three years imprisonment. 
For violations involving the use of violence, sentences of 
not less than five years imprisonment will be the norm in the 
amended law. 
 
CODE OF CONDUCT AND OTHER MESSAGES ON FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS 
 
¶5. (SBU) On June 13, more than 30 leaders of all the major 
parties (except for DUI leader Ali Ahmeti) attended a public 
signing of an election Code of Conduct.  DUI officials later 
said Ahmeti, who had earlier signed the Code, had 
previously-scheduled commitments that prevented him from 
attending the public event.  However, a DUI insider told us 
Ahmeti has become increasingly frustrated and despondent over 
his party's inability to sustain the significant poll lead it 
enjoyed over DPA earlier this year, and was avoiding public 
appearances.  Two days later, however, he was the keynote 
speaker at DUI's kickoff rally. 
 
RELIGIOUS GROUPS CALL FOR FREE, FAIR AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS 
 
SKOPJE 00000596  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Islamic Community of Macedonia, at Embassy 
prompting, issued a public statement June 7 calling on 
Macedonia's Muslims to ensure free, fair and peaceful 
elections that would guarantee individual voting rights. 
After the IC followed up with a joint (US, EU, NATO, OSCE) 
statement welcoming the ICM announcement, the Macedonian 
Orthodox Church added a statement of its own along similar 
lines, reiterating its commitment to staying out of direct 
involvement in the campaign.  The Skopje Mufti also has 
called on imams in the area not to allow mosques to be used 
for political campaigning. 
 
VMRO-DPMNE AND SDSM NECK-AND-NECK IN LATEST POLL 
 
¶7. (U) The latest opinion poll, conducted by a VMRO-DPMNE 
affiliated research institute, shows the opposition party 
running neck-and-neck with governing SDSM, with each 
garnering 26% support.  DUI leads DPA with 17% to 13%, but 
its earlier 3:1 lead has evaporated.  Nationalist VMRO-NP and 
SDSM breakaway NSDP both register 4.5%.  In an earlier poll 
conducted in June, VMRO-DPMNE leader Gruevski's personal 
popularity rating was at 23%, while PM Buckovski's stood at 
11%.  DUI President Ahmeti and DPA President Xhaferi were at 
9.6% and 6.3%, respectively. 
 
VIOLENT INCIDENTS BETWEEN ETHNIC ALBANIAN PARTIES MAR 
CAMPAIGN START 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite the signing of the Code of Conduct and calls 
by religious leaders for a peaceful campaign and elections, 
DUI and DPA accused each other of provoking a series of 
violent incidents in the first days of the official campaign. 
 Most incidents involved destruction of posters or other 
party symbols, but others included gunfire and grenade 
attacks (most of which did not detonate) on local party 
campaign headquarters.  The attacks usually have occurred 
late at night, when the party premises are unoccupied; there 
has been damage to property, but no injuries. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Ambassador and EU Special Representative 
summoned DUI and DPA leaders to the Embassy June 20 to 
chastise them for the incidents and to warn of serious 
consequences if the incidents did not cease immediately (ref 
B).  At the end of a three-hour meeting, both leaders agreed 
to issue a public declaration in front of the media calling 
on their supporters to refrain from such acts or 
provocations, and committing their parties to free and fair 
elections.  While the number of incidents has dropped 
significantly since then, the media and various party 
headquarters continue to report some acts of attempted 
intimidation and attacks on local party offices, especially 
between ethnic Albanian rivals DUI and DPA, but also between 
SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE supporters. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶10. (SBU) Although the reported incidents of provocation and 
intimidation are disturbing, seasoned Macedonian observers 
say, and the MOI confirmed to Ambassador, that they are 
nothing new and that they are typical of past campaign 
behavior by all parties -- ethnic Albanian and ethnic 
Macedonian alike -- in previous elections.  Nevertheless, the 
conduct of these elections will be held to a higher standard 
by the international community, given Macedonia's EU 
candidate status and more tangible NATO membership 
aspirations.  Failure to lower the number and intensity of 
such incidents, or to end them completely, will put those 
aspirations at risk.  We are working intensively with our IC 
partners to make sure that all parties understand that 
message. 
MILOVANOVIC