VZCZCXRO6309
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #1479/01 1811613
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P 301613Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3872
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR (DICARLO), D (SMITH), P (BAME), EUR/SCE (ENGLISH, 
SAINZ, FOOKS), NSC FOR BRAUN, USNIC FOR WEBER, GREGORIAN, 
OSD FOR FLORY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA:  COUNCIL OF EUROPE PARLIAMENTARY 
RESOLUTION PROVOKES FIERY PRE-ELECTION RHETORIC ON BOTH 
SIDES OF THE INTER-ETHNIC BOUNDARY LINE 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR DOUGLAS MCELHANEY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1. (U) This is an action request.  Please see paragraph 7. 
 
¶2.  (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  The Parliamentary Assembly of 
the Council of Europe's (PACE) June 29 resolution on Bosnian 
Constitutional reform has been topic number one on the minds 
of BiH politicians, and has dominated the media here.  In 
addition to a host of factual errors, the resolution takes a 
position contrary to the legal finding of the Venice 
Commission on the legislative package proposed in April.  It 
further appears to undermine the common position of the U.S., 
EU member states and EU/EC leadership of supporting the 
constitutional amendments agreed by the parties in March. 
While the resolution (and the memorandum by the PACE 
rapporteurs attached to it), expresses regret over the 
failure to pass the constitutional reforms in April, but 
invites controversy because it provides a prescription for 
future negotiations on constitutional reform, calling, among 
other things, for the abolition of qualified majority voting 
(otherwise know as entity voting) in the BiH House of 
Representatives and a review of the entity structure of the 
country created by the Dayton constitution.  Politicians on 
both sides of the political divide have been active in the 
press, with Federation politicians voicing unanimous support 
(although with varying degrees of enthusiasm) and RS 
politicians expressing outrage and predicting doom for the 
state of BiH if the PACE resolution is accepted as the model 
for proceeding with constitutional reform. 
 
¶3.  (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT, CONT.  The man believed by most 
to be behind the tabling of the resolution, SBiH President 
Haris Silajdzic, who, for his own political benefit, has been 
working since January to find a forum in the U.S. or Europe 
to air his objections to the U.S.-brokered consitutional 
reform package.  He has finally found a willing partner in 
the Council of Europe Parliament.  Silajdzic has been sitting 
back this week, watching the firestorm from the sidelines and 
allowing others to speak for him.  Given the jarring effect 
the resolution has had on the already-tense Bosnian 
pre-election political climate, and the lack of understanding 
in Bosnia about the real role and relative influence of the 
Council of Europe, we believe it would be valuable to 
approach key EU members who were particularly active in 
supporting the constitutional reform package rejected in 
April, asking that they reiterate support for the 
constitutional reform effort in order to dilute the 
deleterious effect of the PACE resolution.  Further, we 
should alert the Europeans to the possibility that this issue 
may be raised in other European bodies, like the European 
Parliament, further poisoning the BiH political environment 
and the prospects for continuing with our key policy goal to 
move forward with constitutional reform after national 
elections here.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
¶4.  (C) The BiH press has been dominated this week by the 
uproar over a draft resolution on Bosnian Consitutional 
Reform in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) 
(the resolution passed June 29 by a vote of 53 to 28). 
Muslim-Croat Federation politicians unanimously lauded the 
resolution, saying it provided "excellent advice" to BiH 
authorities for proceeding with consitutional reform.  Nijaz 
Durakovic of SDU, a marginal political figure at the best of 
times, but speaking with newfound authority because of his 
alliance with Silajdzic's SBiH against the package of reforms 
defeated in April, positively gloated in the press, saying 
that he and the others who voted against the reforms had been 
fully vindicated. 
 
¶5.  (C) Silajdzic himself has been lobbying tirelessly (and 
until now, in vain) in Europe and the U.S. since January to 
find a forum and an international voice to echo and validate 
his objections to the constitutional reform process, and 
finally found a willing partner in the PACE.  In fact, 
Silajdzic is the only politician singled out in the footnotes 
of the report by the PACE rapporteurs attached to the 
resolution as having influenced the opinion of the 
rapporteurs.  Silajdzic's motives for wanting to defeat the 
package defeated in April are twofold:  first, he was looking 
for an issue that would allow him to re-enter Bosnian 
politics in opposition to current Tri-Presidency member and 
President of the Bosniak-nationalist SDA; and second, to 
ensure that if he wins the presidency in October, the powers 
 
SARAJEVO 00001479  002 OF 002 
 
 
will not have been reduced (as was proposed in the April 
package of amendments).   Silajdzic has been silent in the 
press this week, sitting back and allowing others to do the 
work for him. 
 
¶6.  (C) RS politicians have been especially forceful in their 
condemnation of the resolution, predicting doom for the state 
of BiH if the resolution is used as a basis for continuing 
the consitutional reform process.  RS President Dragan Cavic 
noted that an attack on the Dayton structure of BiH would 
undermine the peace and security built on that foundation 
over the last ten years.  RS Prime Minister Dodik went a step 
further, saying that if Dayton (and the RS) were undermined, 
the people of the RS would have "no choice" but to consider 
secession from BiH.  After more than two weeks of slowly 
dwindling stories about a possible RS independence 
referendum, the PACE resolution (and Dodik's comments) have 
ensured it will be a prominent public issue once again.  The 
re-emergence of the specter of the referendum is tailor-made 
for Silajdzic and the parties who opposed the consitutional 
reform package in April, helping them to "prove" that the RS 
never had any intention of proceeding with real reform, and 
stoking fear within the Bosniak community -- a message that 
will resonate especially well in Bosniak-minority areas of 
the country. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Action request:   We think it would be valuable to 
approach key EU members, particularly the UK, France, 
Germany, Austria, Italy and Finland (current EU President), 
who were active in supporting the constitutional reform 
package rejected in April to reiterate support for the 
process in an attempt to dilute the deleterious effect of the 
PACE resolution.  The Ambassador has used the points in para 
7 in his interactions with the press on this subject. 
 
 
¶8.  (U) BEGIN TALKING POINTS: 
 
-- The resolution passed June 29 in the Parliamentary 
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has been used to 
step up nationalist rhetoric in advance of the October 
national elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 
 
-- Bosnia and Herzegovina has many friends in the 
International Community, and all of us will assist in the 
reforms necessary to create a modern, functional state, 
prepared for membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions. 
 
-- As we have said all along, the process of constitutional 
reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina must be consensus-driven. 
We can all make recommendations on how to amend the 
constitutio, and such advice will come from mamu sides, but 
the way forward must be determined by the people of this 
country and their leaders. 
 
-- Certainly, the road to consensus is a bumpy one.  But 
there is simply no other way -- the international community 
cannot and will not impose a constitution, nor can it force 
consensus. 
 
-- We applaud the commitment and courage of the parties who 
negotiaed, compromised, and found that kind of consensus. 
the Steering Board of the PIC last week spoke clearly on this 
subject -- the PIC "expressed disappointment over the (BiH) 
Parliamentary Assembly's failure to adopt amendments to the 
constitution following sustained and constructive talks 
during the past year." 
 
-- I'm gratified that the first real effort at real 
constitutional reform met such universal support in the 
international community.  As the PIC noted last week, Bosnia 
and Herzegovina's leaders will have continued support from 
the international community in this endeavor as they continue 
the process after the October elections. 
 
END TALKING POINTS. 
MCELHANEY